Oil Slips Over 1% on Bets that Crude Supply Growth Will Exceed Demand

The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
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Oil Slips Over 1% on Bets that Crude Supply Growth Will Exceed Demand

The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo

Oil prices fell for a third day straight on Wednesday on growing expectations that supply growth will outpace demand growth next year, even though the Omicron coronavirus variant is not seen curbing mobility as sharply as earlier COVID-19 variants.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell $1.05, or 1.5%, to $69.68 a barrel by 0734 GMT, after losing 56 cents in the previous session.

Brent crude futures fell 91 cents, or 1.2%, to $72.79 a barrel, after losing 69 cents on Tuesday.

Brent's prompt monthly spread was unchanged at 7 cents after flipping into contango briefly on Tuesday.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Tuesday said a surge in COVID-19 cases with the emergence of the Omicron variant will dent global demand for oil at the same time that crude output is set to increase, especially in the United States, with supply set to exceed demand through at least the end of next year.

In contrast, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting (OPEC) on Monday raised its world oil demand forecast for the first quarter of 2022.

"The IEA's bearish view on the market was in stark contrast to OPEC's more positive view when it released its monthly outlook earlier this week. The divide suggests volatility is likely to remain high in the short term," ANZ commodity analysts said in a note.

Energy consultancy FGE said it has a more optimistic outlook than the IEA as the consultancy expects a smaller surplus of 400,000 barrels per day, based on a comparatively lower demand risk from Omicron, against IEA's forecast of 1.7 million bpd in the first quarter.

Also weighing on the market is a firming US dollar, which makes commodities priced in the greenback more expensive for other countries, Reuters reported. Markets are awaiting the outcome of a key US Federal Reserve policy meeting on Wednesday for signs of when the central bank may raise interest rates.

In another bearish indicator, industry data showed that US crude inventories last week did not decline as much as expected. American Petroleum Institute data showed US crude stocks fell by 815,000 barrels in the week ended Dec. 10, according to market sources, compared with a 2.1 million barrel drop that 10 analysts polled by Reuters had expected.

However, distillate stocks fell by 1 million barrels, compared with analysts' forecasts for an increase of 700,000 barrels, and gasoline stocks rose by 426,000 barrels, which was a smaller build than expected. Weekly data from the US Energy Information Administration is due later on Wednesday.



Oil Recovers from Multi-year Low but Brent Remains below $70

FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
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Oil Recovers from Multi-year Low but Brent Remains below $70

FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo

Oil prices were steady on Thursday, recovering slightly from a multi-year low, though Brent was still below $70 under pressure from trade tariffs between the US, Canada, Mexico and China and OPEC+ plans to raise output.

Those factors and a larger than expected build in US crude inventories had sent Brent as low as $68.33 on Wednesday, its weakest since December 2021. Brent futures were up 28 cents, or 0.4%, at $69.58 a barrel by 0957 GMT on Thursday while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 32 cents, or 0.5%, to $66.63.

"The US President's intention seems to be for a lower oil price," said John Evans at oil broker PVM, adding that questions remain around whether crude is being oversold, Reuters reported.

Prices had fallen after the US enacted tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods, including energy imports, at the same time major producers decided to raise output quotas for the first time since 2022.

Oil recovered and stabilized somewhat after the US said it will make automakers exempt from the 25% tariffs.

A source familiar with the discussions said that US President Donald Trump could eliminate the 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports, such as crude oil and gasoline, that comply with existing trade agreements.

"Trump's trade measures are threatening to reduce global energy demand and disrupt trade flows in the global oil market," ANZ commodity strategist Daniel Hynes said in a note.

The OPEC+ producer group, comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, decided on Monday to increase output for the first time since 2022.

The resulting retreat in prices was then exacerbated on Wednesday by a rise in US crude inventories, said ANZ's Hynes.

Crude stockpiles in the US, the world's biggest oil consumer, rose more than expected last week, buoyed by seasonal refinery maintenance, while gasoline and distillate inventories fell because of a hike in exports, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

There are further signs of weakness in American oil demand, with US waterborne crude oil imports dropping to a four-year low in February, driven by a fall in Canadian barrels shipped to the East Coast, ship tracking data shows. Demand was subdued by refinery maintenance including a long turnaround at the largest plant in the region.

Tariffs also remain in effect on US imports of Mexican crude, a smaller supply stream than Canadian crude but an important one for US refineries on the Gulf Coast.

Meanwhile, Chinese officials have flagged that more stimulus is possible if economic growth slows, seeking to support consumption and cushion the impact of an escalating trade war with the United States.