As Lira Swings, Some Foreign Banks Review or Scale Back Turkey Exposure

A money changer holds Turkish lira and US dollar banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey December 16, 2021. (Reuters)
A money changer holds Turkish lira and US dollar banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey December 16, 2021. (Reuters)
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As Lira Swings, Some Foreign Banks Review or Scale Back Turkey Exposure

A money changer holds Turkish lira and US dollar banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey December 16, 2021. (Reuters)
A money changer holds Turkish lira and US dollar banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey December 16, 2021. (Reuters)

Some foreign banks are reviewing limits for dollar lending to Turkish businesses amid the lira's wild fluctuations, two banking sources said, in a move that could drive up borrowing costs if the foreign lenders cut back.

At least two foreign banks have also withdrawn from cash trading the lira, separate sources at those banks said, potentially limiting local firms' access to foreign currency and hindering foreign investment.

The lira has been on a roller-coaster ride since September when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan pushed for interest rate cuts.

On Monday, it plunged 10% to 18.4 to the US dollar, taking its losses for the year to almost 60%, before whipsawing back to 12 after Erdogan unveiled a plan he said would guarantee local currency deposits against market fluctuations.

Turkish banks are regular international borrowers, and foreign lenders' reluctance to expose themselves to large currency gyrations could make it more expensive and more difficult for them to refinance their debts.

Fitch estimates foreign liabilities of Turkish lenders - mostly short-dated and held by large international banks - were equivalent to 22% of their funding at the end of June.

Total external debt at Turkish banks amounted to $138 billion at the end of the third quarter, with $83 billion due within 12 months, Fitch estimates.

Turkish banks rolled over their one-year foreign currency loans in October before the lira's latest plunge, but could be impacted in the next roll-over period in the first quarter, a regional banker said.

"We had a few banks that came to us and said they will review Turkish limits for the next roll-over period based on the kind of update they get on the economy," the banker said.

A second banking source said their bank had recently further limited short-term trade business with Turkey after cutting exposure on term loans.

"Every single deal needs to be approved by the risk department," the source said.

The sources declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter.

One senior Turkish banker said on Tuesday he was not aware of foreign counterparts reviewing or curbing lending.

Turkish banks have a long record of being able to access foreign funding despite multiple periods of stress, said Lindsey Liddell, head of Turkish bank ratings at Fitch.

Syndicated loan rollovers in the fourth quarter were at a lower cost than in the first half of 2021, with roll-over rates largely remaining above 100%, despite the market volatility, she said.

"Nevertheless, foreign currency liquidity could come under pressure from a prolonged market closure or significant foreign currency deposit outflows," Liddell said.

"Banks' access to foreign currency liquidity has also become more reliant on the central bank and could be uncertain at times of market stress."

The first banker said some Turkish companies had also made requests to relax conditions on their loan agreements due to the market turbulence, without providing details.

Caution

Erdogan's push for 500 basis points of interest rate cuts since September has set off Turkey's worst currency crisis in two decades, with the lira crashing nearly 40% in just the five weeks to last Friday.

Bid-ask spreads on the lira, a gauge of how easy it is to trade the currency, have widened sharply in recent days, with quotes nearing their widest in about a month.

In a further sign of waning investor confidence, implied volatility on the lira - or expected price swings - jumped to the highest on record as the lira fluctuated wildly.

One large European bank and an Asian bank said they had stopped cash trading in the lira and were extremely cautious about offering liquidity for forwards contracts, citing market volatility and policy risks. They also declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue.

JPMorgan has pulled back from offering algorithmic trading facilities in the lira, according to a notice seen by Reuters late last week when the market crashed. The US bank did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

John Marley, chief executive of consultancy forexxtra, said some banks were likely to switch to a system where they will only execute trades if they have another client transaction to offset it, meaning they take on no direct risk themselves.

"The last thing in the world you need is a small position in the lira blowing a hole in your annual trading statement," he said.

Still, for Sergey Dergachev, a senior portfolio manager at Union Investment, the currency crisis is unlikely to trigger defaults on international bonds by Turkish corporates, partly because they refinanced 2022 maturities earlier this year.

"Most issuers are also exporters and benefit operationally from lower lira levels, and severe credit deterioration ... is not a likely scenario I envisage for the Turkish corporate Eurobond issuers, and stay invested in them," he said.



Saudi Arabia World Leader in Road Network Connectivity

The Road Safety and Sustainability Conference is held under the theme “Innovating for Tomorrow”. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The Road Safety and Sustainability Conference is held under the theme “Innovating for Tomorrow”. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Saudi Arabia World Leader in Road Network Connectivity

The Road Safety and Sustainability Conference is held under the theme “Innovating for Tomorrow”. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The Road Safety and Sustainability Conference is held under the theme “Innovating for Tomorrow”. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Saudi Arabia ranks first globally in road network connectivity and has made significant strides, advancing to fourth place in road quality among G20 nations. These achievements are part of the Kingdom’s ongoing efforts to enhance road safety, which have contributed to a nearly 50% reduction in traffic fatalities.
Saudi Minister of Transport and Logistics, Eng. Saleh Al-Jasser, announced these figures on Sunday, during his opening remarks at the Road Safety and Sustainability Conference under the theme “Innovating for Tomorrow,” attended by over 1,000 experts from 50 countries.
Al-Jasser highlighted that the Kingdom has implemented numerous initiatives to maintain the safety and quality of its road network. These include “the adoption of performance-based contracts to ensure transparency, optimize spending, and improve quality and service standards,” all in line with the objectives of the National Transport and Logistics Strategy under Vision 2030.
At a press conference on the sidelines of the event, acting CEO of the General Roads Authority, Eng. Badr Aldulami, shared that the Ministry of Transport oversees more than 75,000 kilometers of roads, while the Ministry of Municipal and Rural Affairs is responsible for over 115,000 kilometers, totaling nearly 200,000 kilometers designed to meet the highest standards in execution, quality, and safety.
For his part, Eng. Abdullah Al-Mogbel, honorary president of the International Road Federation, emphasized Saudi Arabia’s longstanding partnership with the federation, which includes over 119 member countries. He noted that the Kingdom has co-organized five conferences with the federation, all focused on improving road safety, maintenance, and performance.
The General Authority for Roads’ spokesperson, Abdulaziz Al-Otaibi, noted that road fatalities have decreased from approximately 28 per 100,000 people in 2016 to 13 currently, with a target of reducing this to 5 by 2030. This progress has been achieved by adopting advanced technologies, methodologies, and large-scale projects, including the use of a global AI-powered fleet to survey the entire road network, assessing factors such as cracks, skid resistance, and road strength.
He further noted that the Kingdom aims to preserve the environment through asphalt recycling technologies, which have cut maintenance time by up to 40% and reduced carbon emissions.
The conference, spanning two days, will feature over 130 scientific papers and showcase approximately 27 innovations and modern technologies, focusing on innovative transportation solutions and government policies aimed at reducing emissions and seamlessly integrating green infrastructure to enhance road safety. The event also includes an exhibition featuring 20 entities showcasing the latest developments in artificial intelligence, intelligent transport systems, and sustainable transportation.