Why Libya Failed to Hold Presidential Elections on Time

Workers sit near an electoral billboard reading in Arabic 'Our participation is the future of your country' in Tripoli , Libya, 22 December 2021. EPA/STR
Workers sit near an electoral billboard reading in Arabic 'Our participation is the future of your country' in Tripoli , Libya, 22 December 2021. EPA/STR
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Why Libya Failed to Hold Presidential Elections on Time

Workers sit near an electoral billboard reading in Arabic 'Our participation is the future of your country' in Tripoli , Libya, 22 December 2021. EPA/STR
Workers sit near an electoral billboard reading in Arabic 'Our participation is the future of your country' in Tripoli , Libya, 22 December 2021. EPA/STR

Libyans were meant to elect a president Friday hoping to help end years of turmoil, but the poll was delayed amid intense rivalries, UN failures and legal issues, experts say.

Analyst Jalel Harchaoui of the Global Initiative think tank pointed to "mistakes on the part of the UN and an attitude of extremely bad faith on the part of Libyan actors".

The ballot should have marked a fresh start for the oil-rich North African nation, AFP reported. But officials on Wednesday said holding the December 24 vote as scheduled was impossible, with the electoral commission suggesting a month's delay.

"Preparations for the election had been taking place in a highly volatile climate characterized by disputes over electoral laws and the eligibility of candidates," Amnesty International said in a report.

"Armed groups and militias repeatedly repressed dissenting voices, restricted civil society and attacked election officials," Amnesty's Diana Eltahawy said.

The delay is a major challenge to the United Nations-sponsored peace process.

"From the outset, holding elections in Libya was going to be a dangerous gamble," said Claudia Gazzini, from the International Crisis Group.

"But the immediate trigger for this halt in the electoral process was a controversy over the leading electoral candidates".

The electoral process began to come off the rails when Haftar-ally Aguila Saleh, speaker of the eastern-based House of Representatives, signed off on an electoral law in September without putting it to a vote.

Saleh "is responsible for the electoral laws, which are a real disaster", Global Initiative's Harchaoui said, adding that the problematic legislation was "absolutely crucial to explaining the failure of the elections".

Despite criticism, UN Libya envoy Jan Kubis offered support for the law.

After that, "the UN lost room to maneuver", Harchaoui said.

Wolfram Lacher, a Libya specialist at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, criticized Kubis's "clueless backing" of Saleh's electoral law.

Analysts said that despite alarm bells, many in the international community clung onto the scheduled election date.

"Elections, however, are not the silver bullet that can deliver political stability," warned Hamish Kinnear, from risk analysis firm Verisk Maplecroft.

"As yet, there is no presidential candidate who stands much of a chance at taking power without being opposed by at least one well-armed faction."

For Lacher, the crisis was effectively inevitable ever since Saleh backed the electoral law.

"There were many scenarios how it could fail, and no shortage of insistent warnings," he said. "It was like watching a train wreck in slow motion."



Sisi Steps Up Criticism of Ethiopia, Rejects ‘Pressure’ on Egypt Over Nile Dam

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi meets with his Ugandan counterpart Yoweri Museveni in Cairo. (Egyptian Presidency)
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi meets with his Ugandan counterpart Yoweri Museveni in Cairo. (Egyptian Presidency)
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Sisi Steps Up Criticism of Ethiopia, Rejects ‘Pressure’ on Egypt Over Nile Dam

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi meets with his Ugandan counterpart Yoweri Museveni in Cairo. (Egyptian Presidency)
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi meets with his Ugandan counterpart Yoweri Museveni in Cairo. (Egyptian Presidency)

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on Tuesday stepped up his criticism of Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), built on the Nile’s main tributary, which Cairo fears will threaten its water supply.

He rejected what he described as “unilateral measures” along the Nile Basin, warning: “Anyone who thinks Egypt will turn a blind eye to threats to its water security is mistaken.”

Speaking at a joint press conference in Cairo with visiting Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, Sisi said the water issue had become “part of a broader campaign of pressure on Egypt to achieve other objectives.”

“We will remain vigilant and will take all measures guaranteed under international law to safeguard our people’s existential resources,” he vowed.

Sisi stressed that Egypt does not oppose development in Nile Basin countries but insisted such projects must not affect the volume of water reaching Egypt. “The best way to deal with the Nile Basin is to respect everyone’s interests,” he said.

Negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan, under African Union mediation, have been stalled since April 2021, prompting Cairo to appeal to the UN Security Council for pressure on Addis Ababa.

Egypt, which relies on the Nile for 98% of its water, receives an annual quota of 55.5 billion cubic meters. It is already below the global water poverty line, with only 500 cubic meters per person annually, according to the Ministry of Irrigation.

Sisi noted that Egypt and Sudan together receive just 4% of the Nile Basin’s 1,600 billion cubic meters of water, amounting to 85 billion cubic meters.

“This is the only source of life for the two downstream states,” he said, adding that Egypt had never called for “fair water sharing”, which would mean dividing the entire basin’s volume.

Egypt hopes Uganda’s current chairmanship of the Nile Basin Initiative’s consultation mechanism can foster consensus among basin states.

The two leaders inaugurated the Egypt-Uganda Business Forum in Cairo and witnessed the signing of five agreements on water resources, agricultural cooperation and food security, investment, mutual visa exemptions for official passports, and diplomatic cooperation.

The talks come just weeks before Ethiopia plans to inaugurate GERD in September. Former Assistant Foreign Minister for African Affairs Mohamed Hegazy said Cairo is counting on Kampala’s role in dam-related consultations.

Relations between Cairo and Kampala have been warming, with Uganda recently hosting a “2+2” dialogue between the foreign and water ministers of both countries. Sisi said Egypt views Uganda as a key partner in the southern Nile Basin and seeks to make it a primary beneficiary of Egypt’s development support mechanisms.