Turkish Lira Slides Almost 8% After Intervention-Driven Surge

A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey September 27, 2021. (Reuters)
A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey September 27, 2021. (Reuters)
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Turkish Lira Slides Almost 8% After Intervention-Driven Surge

A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey September 27, 2021. (Reuters)
A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey September 27, 2021. (Reuters)

The lira tumbled almost 8% against the dollar on Monday amid persisting investor concern over Turkey's monetary policy, having surged more than 50% last week after billions of dollars of state-backed market interventions.

The lira was also supported last week by a government move to cover FX losses on certain deposits.

It weakened to as low as 11.6 against the greenback on Monday before trimming losses to trade at 11.35 by 0800 GMT.

"The main exchange rate resistance is at 11.45 and 12.0, with support levels of 10.57 and 10.25," QNB Invest said in a daily bulletin.

Last week's rally brought the Turkish currency back to mid-November levels.

Last Monday, it had plunged to an all-time low of 18.4 per dollar, after a months-long slide due to fears of spiraling inflation driven by a succession of interest rate cuts engineered by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

At current levels the currency is still 35% weaker than at the end of last year.

Erdogan unveiled late last Monday a scheme under which the Treasury and central bank would reimburse losses on converted lira deposits against foreign currencies, sparking the lira's biggest intra-day rally.

Turks did not sell dollars in large quantities on Monday and Tuesday of last week, according to official data that suggested they had played little role in the gains. State interventions, meanwhile, cost the central bank more than $8 billion last week, according to traders' calculations.

The central bank sold $1.35 billion in direct forex interventions on Dec. 2-3 to support the lira when it stood around 13.5 per dollar, according to data.

In an interview with broadcaster AHaber, Erdogan said Turks showed confidence in the local currency and deposits increased by 23.8 billion lira after the anti-dollarization plan announcement.

But data from the BDDK banking watchdog showed that after heavy accumulation of dollars the previous week, Turkish individual depositors held $163.7 billion of hard currencies last Tuesday, virtually unchanged from Monday and Friday, when the total was $163.8 billion.

The lira got a big boost last week from what traders and economists called backdoor dollar sales by state banks, supported by the central bank.

Under pressure from Erdogan, the central bank has slashed its policy rates by 500 basis points to 14% since September, despite inflation that has risen to more than 21%. Price rises are set to exceed 30% next year in part due to the lira depreciation, economists predict.

The main BIST 100 stock index in Istanbul rose 2.6% on Monday morning.



Eurasian Development Bank Reveals Partnerships with the Gulf to Develop Energy Projects

Chairman of the Management Board at the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) Nikolai Podguzov. Asharq Al-Awsat
Chairman of the Management Board at the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) Nikolai Podguzov. Asharq Al-Awsat
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Eurasian Development Bank Reveals Partnerships with the Gulf to Develop Energy Projects

Chairman of the Management Board at the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) Nikolai Podguzov. Asharq Al-Awsat
Chairman of the Management Board at the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) Nikolai Podguzov. Asharq Al-Awsat

Chairman of the Management Board at the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) Nikolai Podguzov revealed plans to cooperate with GCC countries, including Saudi Arabia, to develop energy infrastructure.

Podguzov told Asharq Al-Awsat that the bank, which is the international financial organization that operates in Central Asia and in Eurasia, works on implementing a working plan based on three strategies.

“Every year we execute around 30-40 new projects and set up agreements,” he said.

“The investments of the bank are growing at least 20% each year,” Podguzov revealed. “We are quite a fast developing bank. Uzbekistan has just joined the bank this year.”

Regarding the size of loans and investments handled by EDB, Podguzov explained that the bank's average investment ranges between $100 million and $400 million. He added however, that the bank is capable of syndicating larger loans that can reach up to $1 billion or more, while the average annual investment volume is around $2.53 billion.

Regarding the bank's work plans for the coming year, Podguzov explained that the Eurasian Development Bank is simultaneously working to strengthen its relations with the GCC countries and the Islamic Development Bank.

“We improve connectivity, transport infrastructure and logistics. We improve access to water for regions in Central Asia. We develop energy infrastructure in our member states,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“We take care of food safety and food safety infrastructure, which provides access to food and provides food security for our member states. And I think in this field we can set up very good economic ties and cooperation between GCC countries and Central Asia.”

“I know that such countries like Saudi Arabia, Emirates, Oman are quite interested in the topics of our strategy,” he said.

“We mainly do non-sovereign finance ... which is very convenient for our potential partners,” he added.

Podguzov said there is a partnership with Masdar which “is a world leader in bringing renewable energy technologies into the world. They are quite active in Central Asia, in Kazakhstan in particular.”

“That is why, for example, we are very much interested in cooperation with Masdar company. This is one of examples. I think logistics and logistics project also could be of interest for Saudi Arabia. A lot of infrastructure could be developed together with the help of Eurasian Development Bank.”

“I believe that it's also very important to build economic bridge between GCC countries and Central Asia. And I think the bank can do a lot in this field and finally we can bring together economic interests of Central Asian and GCC countries.”