Turkish Lira Slides Almost 8% After Intervention-Driven Surge

A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey September 27, 2021. (Reuters)
A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey September 27, 2021. (Reuters)
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Turkish Lira Slides Almost 8% After Intervention-Driven Surge

A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey September 27, 2021. (Reuters)
A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey September 27, 2021. (Reuters)

The lira tumbled almost 8% against the dollar on Monday amid persisting investor concern over Turkey's monetary policy, having surged more than 50% last week after billions of dollars of state-backed market interventions.

The lira was also supported last week by a government move to cover FX losses on certain deposits.

It weakened to as low as 11.6 against the greenback on Monday before trimming losses to trade at 11.35 by 0800 GMT.

"The main exchange rate resistance is at 11.45 and 12.0, with support levels of 10.57 and 10.25," QNB Invest said in a daily bulletin.

Last week's rally brought the Turkish currency back to mid-November levels.

Last Monday, it had plunged to an all-time low of 18.4 per dollar, after a months-long slide due to fears of spiraling inflation driven by a succession of interest rate cuts engineered by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

At current levels the currency is still 35% weaker than at the end of last year.

Erdogan unveiled late last Monday a scheme under which the Treasury and central bank would reimburse losses on converted lira deposits against foreign currencies, sparking the lira's biggest intra-day rally.

Turks did not sell dollars in large quantities on Monday and Tuesday of last week, according to official data that suggested they had played little role in the gains. State interventions, meanwhile, cost the central bank more than $8 billion last week, according to traders' calculations.

The central bank sold $1.35 billion in direct forex interventions on Dec. 2-3 to support the lira when it stood around 13.5 per dollar, according to data.

In an interview with broadcaster AHaber, Erdogan said Turks showed confidence in the local currency and deposits increased by 23.8 billion lira after the anti-dollarization plan announcement.

But data from the BDDK banking watchdog showed that after heavy accumulation of dollars the previous week, Turkish individual depositors held $163.7 billion of hard currencies last Tuesday, virtually unchanged from Monday and Friday, when the total was $163.8 billion.

The lira got a big boost last week from what traders and economists called backdoor dollar sales by state banks, supported by the central bank.

Under pressure from Erdogan, the central bank has slashed its policy rates by 500 basis points to 14% since September, despite inflation that has risen to more than 21%. Price rises are set to exceed 30% next year in part due to the lira depreciation, economists predict.

The main BIST 100 stock index in Istanbul rose 2.6% on Monday morning.



Gold Heads for Weekly Fall as Fewer Fed Rate Cut Prospects Weigh

Jewelry is displayed at the Gold Souk market in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, March 14, 2025. REUTERS/Amr Alfiky/File Photo
Jewelry is displayed at the Gold Souk market in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, March 14, 2025. REUTERS/Amr Alfiky/File Photo
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Gold Heads for Weekly Fall as Fewer Fed Rate Cut Prospects Weigh

Jewelry is displayed at the Gold Souk market in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, March 14, 2025. REUTERS/Amr Alfiky/File Photo
Jewelry is displayed at the Gold Souk market in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, March 14, 2025. REUTERS/Amr Alfiky/File Photo

Gold prices fell on Friday and were on track for a weekly decline, as an overall stronger dollar and the prospect of fewer US interest rate cuts offset support from rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

Spot gold slipped 0.8% to $3,333.99 an ounce, as of 0604 GMT, and was down 2.5% for the week so far.

US gold futures shed 1.4% to $3,361.80.

Describing the situation in the Middle East as "fluid", Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst, Asia Pacific, at OANDA, said it is causing traders to avoid taking aggressive positions both on the long and the short side of the trade spectrum, reported Reuters.

US President Donald Trump will decide in the next two weeks whether the US will get involved in the Israel-Iran air war, the White House said on Thursday, raising pressure on Tehran to come to the negotiating table.

Meanwhile, Trump reiterated his calls for the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, saying it should be 2.5 percentage points lower.

The Fed held rates steady on Wednesday, and policymakers retained projections for two quarter-point rate cuts this year.

"Macroeconomic developments, particularly steady yields and renewed USD strength, have not supported the (gold) price," analysts at ANZ said in a note.

"Rising inflation expectations and the Fed's cautious stance have weighed on market expectations around the number of rate cuts this year."

The dollar was set to log its biggest weekly rise in over a month on Friday. A stronger greenback makes gold more expensive for other currency holders.

Elsewhere, spot silver slipped 2.1% to $35.61 per ounce, while palladium fell 0.8% to $1,042.04. Platinum fell 1.9% to $1,282.72, but was heading for its third straight weekly rise.