Syria: Three ‘Microstates,’ Destruction, Circles of Hell

 Syrians stand over the rubble left behind by a Russian raid in rural Idlib, northwest of Syria, December 27 (AFP)
Syrians stand over the rubble left behind by a Russian raid in rural Idlib, northwest of Syria, December 27 (AFP)
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Syria: Three ‘Microstates,’ Destruction, Circles of Hell

 Syrians stand over the rubble left behind by a Russian raid in rural Idlib, northwest of Syria, December 27 (AFP)
Syrians stand over the rubble left behind by a Russian raid in rural Idlib, northwest of Syria, December 27 (AFP)

In 2021, five key factors have cast their shadows on Syria and its people. Though they are not equal, the intertwining of these factors will substantially impact the future of the country and people during the coming years.

They will also leave their effects on the decisions of foreign “players” and the five armies (Russia, Iran, Turkey, US, and Israel) in the Levantine country.

For the second year in a row, contact lines in Syria have remained very much the same, distributed among three “microstates” or spheres of influence.

With the help of Russia and Iran, the Syrian regime controls two-thirds of Syria’s territory.

Despite having the upper hand in the country’s center, west and south, Damascus lost what’s sitting on the other side of the Euphrates, where the US-led International Coalition and Kurdish-Arab allies, like the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), control abundant national wealth that is locked in no more than a quarter of Syria’s total geographical area.

Other enclaves in the countryside of Aleppo in the north and at Al-Tanf in the southeast of the country, near the borders of Jordan and Iraq, are also controlled by the US and its allies.

The third sphere of influence is controlled by Syrian factions backed by Turkey and includes three enclaves, one of which is located east of the Euphrates and another two in the north and northwest of Syria. Collectively, the land held by Turkish-backed forces sums up to twice the size of Lebanon.

What is noteworthy is that this area is home to around 3.5 million Syrians. Just as many Syrians are also living in neighboring Turkey, which is now the host of the largest number of Syrian voters, their ballots can swing elections if they are ever held someday.

Since the agreement between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Moscow on March 5, 2020, contact lines between these “microstates” have not changed significantly.

Moreover, lines of contact were strengthened when President Joe Biden took office. After a catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan, Washington decided to remain in northeastern Syria, informing Russians and its allies that US presence will stay the same, at least until Biden’s term ends.

Israel’s Raids

Putin had offered the cover needed for Israel to engage with Iranian military targets in Syria. A genuinely remarkable matter is for him to allow Tel Aviv to intensively bomb the Iranians when they are Russia’s allies in Syria and elsewhere.

A military coordination mechanism between the Russian-operated Hmeimim air base and Tel Aviv was activated. Israel escalated its raids in Syria, using surface-to-surface missiles to bombard the Damascus countryside in October, and bombed the port of Latakia on the Mediterranean for the first time.

In the final days of 2021, Israeli sources revealed that dozens of Hezbollah targets in southern Syria had been hit during the past three years without any retaliation. The most recent attack took place on Tuesday, when Israel targeted Latakia Airport, 20 kilometers away from Hmeimim, for the second time in less than a month.

Humanitarian Aid

Since Biden took office, the priority of the Syrian issue in his agenda has declined. The US administration was satisfied with setting three goals: providing humanitarian aid to all Syrians, preventing the return of ISIS, and maintaining the ceasefire and the stability of the lines of contact.

Humanitarian aid remained a mainstay on the agenda of Syria talks without going into more profound and more significant political issues, to the extent that the UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen barely succeeded in holding simple meetings of the Constitutional Committee.

Disregard for the political part by the Biden administration left more room for Russia’s insistence to get Arab countries to normalize ties with the regime in Damascus. Moscow pressed Arab nations to recognize the regime as a fait accompli in Syria and urged them to start pumping funds for the reconstruction of the war-torn nation.

Arab Nations Normalizing Ties with Damascus

Since the end of 2011, the Arab League has suspended Syria’s membership. Nevertheless, the Syrian government remained represented in United Nations institutions because the UN Security Council did not take the decision to freeze Damascus’ membership.

Changes that took place over the past decade saw some countries gradually reopening doors with Damascus.

The embassies of UAE and Bahrain in Syria partially returned to work at the end of 2018.

Moreover, Arab officials started taking visits to Damascus and held security and political contacts with Syrian government. But there was no consensus on the country’s return to the Arab League.

Stagnation took over the track of normalizing ties with Damascus, with almost no chance of it attending the Arab League summit scheduled for the end of March 2022.

Many observers say that the reason behind this is that Damascus had failed to provide any concessions to Arab states on the topics of its internal political process, abandoning the Iranian agenda, fighting drug smuggling networks and combatting terrorism.

Crisis and Migration

The sight of Syrians riding “death boats” to escape the war across seas to Europe was shocking in 2015, and it was believed that it had ended.

But recent events paint a different picture, as Syrians arrived at the Belarus-Poland border to “escape hell” in Syria and reach the “European dream.” Social media reported thousands of Syrians in front of immigration institutions to obtain passports.

Most of these Syrians are looking to escape poverty, poor living conditions and hunger as their country’s economy continues to deteriorate.

Prospects and Questions

The stability of the lines of contact did not end the suffering for Syrians wherever they are. Many questions on what the year 2022 will bring remain unanswered.

Will lines of contact remain constant? And for how long? Is the fate of Syria partition, decentralization, or a return to “full sovereignty”? Will any tension in Ukraine affect the US-Russian understandings east of the Euphrates on the one hand, or the Russian-Turkish arrangements in Idlib on the other, and change the size and borders of the “microstates”?



Jamal Mustafa: Saddam Said ‘Qassim Was Honest, But the Party Ordered His Assassination’

Jamal Mustafa Sultan.
Jamal Mustafa Sultan.
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Jamal Mustafa: Saddam Said ‘Qassim Was Honest, But the Party Ordered His Assassination’

Jamal Mustafa Sultan.
Jamal Mustafa Sultan.

Jamal Mustafa Sultan, Saddam Hussein’s son-in-law and former deputy secretary, recalled how the late Iraqi president viewed former Prime Minister Abdul Karim Qassim as an honorable and brave man even though he was involved on an attempt on his life.

In the third installment of his interview to Asharq Al-Awsat, Mustafa said: “In 1959, a fateful decision by Iraq’s Baath Party, led by Fuad al-Rikabi, changed the course of a young man’s life. The party planned a bold attempt to assassinate Iraqi leader Abdul Karim Qassim on Oct. 7.”

When a team member dropped out shortly before the operation, Saddam, then a little-known young man, was brought in. During the ambush on Al-Rashid Street in Baghdad, Qassim was slightly injured, and Saddam was wounded by shrapnel in his leg, said Mustafa.

After the failed attempt, al-Rikabi and other senior Baath members, including Hazem Jawad and Ali Saleh al-Saadi, fled to Syria. There, al-Rikabi kept asking about Saddam until he learned that Saddam had also escaped, organizing his secret journey to Syria on his own.

Hazem Jawad, a key Baath Party leader, recalled the moment Saddam Hussein became a full party member. In a small underground apartment in Damascus, Fuad al-Rikabi led a meeting with several party members, including himself, Ali Saleh al-Saadi, and Medhat Ibrahim Juma. “Fuad praised Saddam, calling him courageous and loyal, and proposed accepting him as a full member. We all agreed,” said Jawad, according to Mustafa.

“Saddam, a tall young man with piercing eyes and dark skin, stood before us. Fuad recited the party oath, and Saddam repeated it, officially joining the Baath Party,” he continued.

“We spent the next two hours talking over tea and cake. Before leaving, Fuad announced his trip to Cairo. Saddam also asked for permission to go to Egypt to continue his law studies. We approved, as it wasn’t safe to return him to Iraq after his involvement in the assassination attempt on Abdul Karim Qassim,” recounted Mustafa.

Saddam’s respect for Qassim

It’s uncommon for a leader to praise a predecessor who survived an assassination attempt against them, but Saddam did just that. Mustafa shared the story during a meeting.

“President Qassim, may God have mercy on him, was brave and honest,” Saddam said, according to Mustafa. “I respect him for serving Iraq with integrity.”

“We were young and impulsive. We didn’t think about the reasons behind the operation or what might happen afterward. We didn’t even consider who could replace Qassim if he were gone.”

When told that Qassim’s sister was his only surviving family member, Saddam instructed that she be given a car and financial support.

Saddam also treated former President Abdul Rahman Arif with respect, despite efforts to tarnish his legacy. Mustafa noted that campaigns to smear Arif were part of a broader attempt to justify Iraq’s invasion and undermine its independence. He urged historians to seek the truth and challenge false narratives.

Abdul Karim Qassim. (Getty Images)

Mustafa's reflection on Saddam

When asked if Saddam had made mistakes, Mustafa replied: “Mr. President worked for Iraq’s progress. Like anyone, he sometimes got things right and sometimes wrong, but his goal was always to elevate the country.”

“He had no interest in wealth. Over 20 years, investigators searched for assets linked to him—land, money, anything—but found nothing. Even his political opponent, Iyad Allawi, confirmed this. Saddam was strict about protecting public funds, and this extended to his children as well,” he added.

He also criticized the current government, accusing it of seizing land and displacing Iraqis.

“They’ve taken properties from displaced residents and given them to foreigners, including Iranians, Pakistanis, and Afghans. Areas like Jurf al-Sakhar and Al-Awja have been emptied, with residents banned from returning. Some lands are controlled by foreign military intelligence, impacting not just Iraq but the region. Christians have also lost properties to militias,” noted Sultan.

He shared his own losses: “My family’s land, passed down for generations, was confiscated. An orchard over 250 years old and another property from my great-grandfather, over 200 years old, were taken simply because we’re linked to the former regime. Even if a child in our family registers property now, it’s immediately seized.”

He added: “My family and others have lost everything. While some managed to sell or keep a few properties, all of ours were taken.”

Criticism of Moqtada al-Sadr, Iraq's sectarian divide

Mustafa expressed disappointment in Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr after the fall of Saddam’s regime.

“Moqtada knows the truth about who killed his father. He attended investigation meetings and knows the details. His father, Mohammad al-Sadr, had influence and even criticized the regime in Friday sermons. Despite warnings, he refused official protection before his assassination,” he said.

On claims that Saddam’s government was Sunni-dominated, Mustafa disagreed.

“At that time, we were all Iraqis. There was no emphasis on Sunni, Shiite, or Christian identities. Our shared Iraqi identity came first, and positions in the government, military, or party were based on merit. For example, Tariq Aziz, a Christian, held top roles, including foreign minister and deputy prime minister. Sectarianism wasn’t a factor,” he said.

He criticized the current leadership, accusing it of destroying Iraq’s unity.

“Today’s politics aim to change Iraq’s demographics and weaken the country. Millions of Iraqis have been displaced, not just one group but people from all regions. Over 10 million now live abroad. This isn’t a coincidence—it’s a deliberate effort to break Iraq’s unity and control its future,” noted Mustafa.

Returning to Iraq

When asked if he hopes to return to Iraq, Mustafa said: “Since 2003, all the governments in Iraq have been installed by the US occupation and are aligned with Iran to further its agenda in the region, even through militias in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. After the occupation began, Iran-backed militias targeted Iraq’s scientists, doctors and pilots, which led to over 10 million Iraqis fleeing the country. The human cost of this is immense and unacceptable.”

He told Asharq Al-Awsat: “Of course, I want to return to Iraq. Every patriotic Iraqi who loves their country wants to return. It’s just a matter of time. We hope, God willing, that Iraq will be liberated and strong again, and when that happens, my family and I will be among the first to return.”

Mustafa also criticized Iran’s growing influence in the region: “People here are talking about Iran’s control over four Arab capitals: Beirut, Damascus, Baghdad and Sanaa. These countries are falling apart, with militias making the decisions, not governments. The policies being followed harm these nations’ interests and their Arab identity.”

He said Saddam quickly recognized a broader plot to destabilize Iraq and the region.

“Saddam saw Iraq as a barrier to a project aimed not only at Iraq, but at the entire Arab world, threatening their existence and role,” he said.

Mustafa also blamed Iran for starting the Iraq-Iran war, citing Tehran’s clear policy of exporting its revolution, as stated in its constitution.

When asked about reports that Iraqi intelligence proposed assassinating Iran's Supreme Leader Khomeini during his stay in Baghdad, Mustafa confirmed it but explained why Saddam rejected the idea.

“Saddam was a noble and honorable man. He would never allow harm to come to a guest, especially through betrayal. He would never consider or permit such a thing.”