Israeli Intelligence Estimate Iran Is 8 Weeks from Developing Nuclear Weapons

Advanced centrifuges at the Nuclear Industry Fair in Tehran April 2021. (Reuters)
Advanced centrifuges at the Nuclear Industry Fair in Tehran April 2021. (Reuters)
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Israeli Intelligence Estimate Iran Is 8 Weeks from Developing Nuclear Weapons

Advanced centrifuges at the Nuclear Industry Fair in Tehran April 2021. (Reuters)
Advanced centrifuges at the Nuclear Industry Fair in Tehran April 2021. (Reuters)

Israel's latest intelligence estimates that Iran is now six to eight weeks away from reaching the fissile material that would allow the development of a nuclear bomb. Still, it has not decided to move forward with that.

Israeli broadcaster Kan 11 quoted security sources as saying that Tehran was able to reduce the timetable that allows it to be able to develop nuclear weapons. Currently, it can produce a quantity of 90 percent enriched uranium, the percentage required to begin making a nuclear bomb.

However, the sources said that despite Iran's progress towards nuclear weapons, it took a decision to stop at this point, which would enable it to bargain during the ongoing negotiations in Vienna over its nuclear program.

The channel quoted a senior official in the Israeli establishment saying that Iran can go further and turn into a nuclear threshold state, but it chooses not to do so.

Under the nuclear deal, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), signed in 2015, Iran can reach no more than 3.67 percent, the appropriate level for most civilian nuclear energy uses.

Last January, Iran reached 20 percent enrichment and increased that to 60 percent in April.

According to the latest report issued by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium amounted to 2489.7 kilograms until last month.

The total stock includes 113.8 kg enriched at 20 percent and 17.7 kg enriched up to 60 percent.

Experts from the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security estimated that one "significant quantity" of 60 percent enriched uranium is 40 kg, roughly enough for one nuclear explosive.

Some research suggests that 60 percent enrichment could be about 99 percent of the effort to make weapons.

Experts note that Iran will also need to take other steps to enrich uranium to obtain a bomb.

Last August, Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz stated that Iran was ten weeks away from producing an amount of enriched uranium to develop a nuclear bomb.

It is inferred from the new Israeli intelligence estimates that Iran has jumped far ahead.

If Tehran decides to develop a nuclear bomb, it will need six to eight weeks of producing the amount of uranium required to start developing the bomb, which may take about three months.

Israel has threatened Iran with military options if Tehran reaches a point close to the "nuclear threshold," meaning that it has enough fuel to produce an atomic bomb.

Tel Aviv coordinates with the US administration to pressure Iran if negotiations fail and Tehran continues its nuclear activities.



Israel Cancels Visas for French Lawmakers

French Ecologist party deputy Francois Ruffin was among lawmakers who had their visas cancelled by Israel. JULIEN DE ROSA / AFP
French Ecologist party deputy Francois Ruffin was among lawmakers who had their visas cancelled by Israel. JULIEN DE ROSA / AFP
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Israel Cancels Visas for French Lawmakers

French Ecologist party deputy Francois Ruffin was among lawmakers who had their visas cancelled by Israel. JULIEN DE ROSA / AFP
French Ecologist party deputy Francois Ruffin was among lawmakers who had their visas cancelled by Israel. JULIEN DE ROSA / AFP

Israel's government cancelled visas for 27 French left-wing lawmakers and local officials two days before they were to start a visit to Israel and the Palestinian territories on Sunday, the group said.
The action came only days after Israel stopped two British members of parliament from the governing Labor party from entering the country, AFP said.
It also came amidst diplomatic tensions after President Emmanuel Macron said France would soon recognize a Palestinian state. Macron has in turn sought to pressure Netanyahu over conditions in Gaza amid the Israel-Hamas war.

Israel's interior ministry said visas for the 27 had been cancelled under a law that allows authorities to ban people who could act against the state of Israel.

Seventeen members of the group, from France's Ecologist and Communist parties, said they had been victims of "collective punishment" by Israel and called on Macron to intervene.

They said in a statement that they had been invited on a five-day trip by the French consulate in Jerusalem.

They had intended to visit Israel and the Palestinian territories as part of their mission to "strengthen international cooperation and the culture of peace", they added.

"For the first time, two days before our departure, the Israeli authorities cancelled our entry visas that had been approved one month ago," they said.

"We want to understand what led to this sudden decision, which resembles collective punishment," said the group.

'Major rupture'
The delegation included National Assembly deputies Francois Ruffin, Alexis Corbiere and Julie Ozenne from the Ecologist party, Communist deputy Soumya Bourouaha and Communist senator Marianne Margate.

The other members were left-wing town mayors and local lawmakers.

The statement denounced the ban as a "major rupture in diplomatic ties".

"Deliberately preventing elected officials and parliamentarians from travelling cannot be without consequences," the group said, demanding a meeting with Macron and action by the government to ensure Israel let them into the country.

The group said their parties had for decades called for recognition of a Palestinian state, which Macron said last week could come at an international conference in June.

Israeli authorities this month detained British members of parliament Yuan Yang and Abtisam Mohamed at Tel Aviv airport and deported them, citing the same reason. Britain's Foreign Secretary David Lammy called the action "unacceptable".

In February, Israel stopped two left-wing European parliament deputies, Franco-Palestinian Rima Hassan and Lynn Boylan from Ireland, from entering.

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reacted with fury to France's possible recognition of a Palestinian state. He said establishing a Palestinian state next to Israel would be a "huge reward for terrorism".