Israeli Intelligence Estimate Iran Is 8 Weeks from Developing Nuclear Weapons

Advanced centrifuges at the Nuclear Industry Fair in Tehran April 2021. (Reuters)
Advanced centrifuges at the Nuclear Industry Fair in Tehran April 2021. (Reuters)
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Israeli Intelligence Estimate Iran Is 8 Weeks from Developing Nuclear Weapons

Advanced centrifuges at the Nuclear Industry Fair in Tehran April 2021. (Reuters)
Advanced centrifuges at the Nuclear Industry Fair in Tehran April 2021. (Reuters)

Israel's latest intelligence estimates that Iran is now six to eight weeks away from reaching the fissile material that would allow the development of a nuclear bomb. Still, it has not decided to move forward with that.

Israeli broadcaster Kan 11 quoted security sources as saying that Tehran was able to reduce the timetable that allows it to be able to develop nuclear weapons. Currently, it can produce a quantity of 90 percent enriched uranium, the percentage required to begin making a nuclear bomb.

However, the sources said that despite Iran's progress towards nuclear weapons, it took a decision to stop at this point, which would enable it to bargain during the ongoing negotiations in Vienna over its nuclear program.

The channel quoted a senior official in the Israeli establishment saying that Iran can go further and turn into a nuclear threshold state, but it chooses not to do so.

Under the nuclear deal, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), signed in 2015, Iran can reach no more than 3.67 percent, the appropriate level for most civilian nuclear energy uses.

Last January, Iran reached 20 percent enrichment and increased that to 60 percent in April.

According to the latest report issued by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium amounted to 2489.7 kilograms until last month.

The total stock includes 113.8 kg enriched at 20 percent and 17.7 kg enriched up to 60 percent.

Experts from the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security estimated that one "significant quantity" of 60 percent enriched uranium is 40 kg, roughly enough for one nuclear explosive.

Some research suggests that 60 percent enrichment could be about 99 percent of the effort to make weapons.

Experts note that Iran will also need to take other steps to enrich uranium to obtain a bomb.

Last August, Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz stated that Iran was ten weeks away from producing an amount of enriched uranium to develop a nuclear bomb.

It is inferred from the new Israeli intelligence estimates that Iran has jumped far ahead.

If Tehran decides to develop a nuclear bomb, it will need six to eight weeks of producing the amount of uranium required to start developing the bomb, which may take about three months.

Israel has threatened Iran with military options if Tehran reaches a point close to the "nuclear threshold," meaning that it has enough fuel to produce an atomic bomb.

Tel Aviv coordinates with the US administration to pressure Iran if negotiations fail and Tehran continues its nuclear activities.



Kremlin Says Europe Will Feel the Recoil from Its 'Illegal' Sanctions on Russia

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov attends a meeting of Russian President Vladimir Putin with the heads of international news agencies at the newly renovated St. Petersburg Rimsky-Korsakov State Conservatory on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg, Russia, Thursday, June 19, 2025. (Vyacheslav Prokofyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov attends a meeting of Russian President Vladimir Putin with the heads of international news agencies at the newly renovated St. Petersburg Rimsky-Korsakov State Conservatory on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg, Russia, Thursday, June 19, 2025. (Vyacheslav Prokofyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)
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Kremlin Says Europe Will Feel the Recoil from Its 'Illegal' Sanctions on Russia

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov attends a meeting of Russian President Vladimir Putin with the heads of international news agencies at the newly renovated St. Petersburg Rimsky-Korsakov State Conservatory on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg, Russia, Thursday, June 19, 2025. (Vyacheslav Prokofyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov attends a meeting of Russian President Vladimir Putin with the heads of international news agencies at the newly renovated St. Petersburg Rimsky-Korsakov State Conservatory on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg, Russia, Thursday, June 19, 2025. (Vyacheslav Prokofyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

The Kremlin said in remarks published on Sunday that the tougher the sanctions imposed on Russia by Europe, the more painful the recoil would be for Europe's own economies as Russia had grown resistant to such "illegal" sanctions.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 triggered a wave of Western sanctions on Russia and it is by far the most sanctioned major economy in the world.

The West said that it hoped its sanctions would force President Vladimir Putin to seek peace in Ukraine, and though the economy contracted in 2022, it grew in 2023 and 2024 at faster rates than the European Union.

The European Commission on June 10 proposed a new round of sanctions against Russia, targeting Moscow's energy revenues, its banks and its military industry, though the United States has so far refused to toughen its own sanctions.

Asked about remarks by Western European leaders including French President Emmanuel Macron that toughening sanctions would force Russia to negotiate an end to the war, the Kremlin said only logic and arguments could force Russia to negotiate.

"The more serious the package of sanctions, which, I repeat, we consider illegal, the more serious will be the recoil from a gun to the shoulder. This is a double-edged sword," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told state television.

Peskov told state television's top Kremlin correspondent, Pavel Zarubin, that he did not doubt the EU would impose further sanctions but that Russia had built up "resistance" to such sanctions.

President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that any additional EU sanctions on Russia would simply hurt Europe more - and pointed out that Russia's economy grew at 4.3% in 2024 compared to euro zone growth of 0.9%.