Israeli Intelligence Estimate Iran Is 8 Weeks from Developing Nuclear Weapons

Advanced centrifuges at the Nuclear Industry Fair in Tehran April 2021. (Reuters)
Advanced centrifuges at the Nuclear Industry Fair in Tehran April 2021. (Reuters)
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Israeli Intelligence Estimate Iran Is 8 Weeks from Developing Nuclear Weapons

Advanced centrifuges at the Nuclear Industry Fair in Tehran April 2021. (Reuters)
Advanced centrifuges at the Nuclear Industry Fair in Tehran April 2021. (Reuters)

Israel's latest intelligence estimates that Iran is now six to eight weeks away from reaching the fissile material that would allow the development of a nuclear bomb. Still, it has not decided to move forward with that.

Israeli broadcaster Kan 11 quoted security sources as saying that Tehran was able to reduce the timetable that allows it to be able to develop nuclear weapons. Currently, it can produce a quantity of 90 percent enriched uranium, the percentage required to begin making a nuclear bomb.

However, the sources said that despite Iran's progress towards nuclear weapons, it took a decision to stop at this point, which would enable it to bargain during the ongoing negotiations in Vienna over its nuclear program.

The channel quoted a senior official in the Israeli establishment saying that Iran can go further and turn into a nuclear threshold state, but it chooses not to do so.

Under the nuclear deal, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), signed in 2015, Iran can reach no more than 3.67 percent, the appropriate level for most civilian nuclear energy uses.

Last January, Iran reached 20 percent enrichment and increased that to 60 percent in April.

According to the latest report issued by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium amounted to 2489.7 kilograms until last month.

The total stock includes 113.8 kg enriched at 20 percent and 17.7 kg enriched up to 60 percent.

Experts from the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security estimated that one "significant quantity" of 60 percent enriched uranium is 40 kg, roughly enough for one nuclear explosive.

Some research suggests that 60 percent enrichment could be about 99 percent of the effort to make weapons.

Experts note that Iran will also need to take other steps to enrich uranium to obtain a bomb.

Last August, Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz stated that Iran was ten weeks away from producing an amount of enriched uranium to develop a nuclear bomb.

It is inferred from the new Israeli intelligence estimates that Iran has jumped far ahead.

If Tehran decides to develop a nuclear bomb, it will need six to eight weeks of producing the amount of uranium required to start developing the bomb, which may take about three months.

Israel has threatened Iran with military options if Tehran reaches a point close to the "nuclear threshold," meaning that it has enough fuel to produce an atomic bomb.

Tel Aviv coordinates with the US administration to pressure Iran if negotiations fail and Tehran continues its nuclear activities.



Iran Turns to Moscow and Beijing to Thwart ‘Snapback’ Sanctions Threat

Sergei Lavrov and Wang Yi met in Beijing on July 13 (Reuters)
Sergei Lavrov and Wang Yi met in Beijing on July 13 (Reuters)
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Iran Turns to Moscow and Beijing to Thwart ‘Snapback’ Sanctions Threat

Sergei Lavrov and Wang Yi met in Beijing on July 13 (Reuters)
Sergei Lavrov and Wang Yi met in Beijing on July 13 (Reuters)

Iran is turning to Russia and China in a bid to head off the potential reimposition of international sanctions, amid escalating tensions over its nuclear program.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has held talks with his Chinese and Russian counterparts to discuss the future of the nuclear accord and the possibility that the European troika could trigger the “snapback” mechanism.

Iranian state media reported on Monday that Araghchi arrived in Beijing at the head of an official delegation to attend a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s foreign ministers. The trip comes as debate intensifies within Iran over the stances of Moscow and Beijing, particularly in the aftermath of the recent conflict between Iran and Israel.

Speaking at a press conference, Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismail Baghaei stressed that Gulf security remains a priority for China.

“Araghchi’s visit follows an official invitation from the Chinese Foreign Minister,” he said, adding that the Iranian diplomat will hold bilateral meetings Tuesday on the sidelines of the gathering.

Baghaei emphasized Tehran’s ongoing coordination with both Russia and China, who are parties to the nuclear deal.

“Russia and China have consistently expressed their readiness to play a constructive role in the process related to Iran’s nuclear file, and this continues,” he noted. “We have longstanding, friendly relations with both countries and a strategic partnership.”

Addressing reports that Moscow has privately urged Tehran to halt uranium enrichment, Baghaei said: “We have not received any specific proposal from Russia on this matter.”

In Beijing, China’s Foreign Ministry confirmed that Foreign Minister Wang Yi discussed Iran’s nuclear issue with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, alongside other bilateral and international topics.

Meanwhile, Moscow on Sunday denounced a report claiming President Vladimir Putin had urged Iran to accept a deal with the United States that would bar it from enriching uranium. Russia’s Foreign Ministry dismissed the claim as “defamation” aimed at inflaming tensions over the Iranian nuclear program.

According to the American outlet Axios, sources familiar with the issue said Putin recently pressed Iran to agree to “zero enrichment.”

But Russia rebuffed the report as baseless, insisting its position is well known: "Invariably and repeatedly, we have emphasized the necessity of resolving the crisis concerning Iran's nuclear program exclusively through political and diplomatic means, and expressed our willingness to help find mutually acceptable solutions," the ministry statement read.

It added that Moscow stands ready to help broker mutually acceptable solutions.

Since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Moscow has strengthened its ties with Tehran. While publicly backing Iran’s right to enrich uranium, Putin has reportedly adopted a tougher line behind closed doors following the 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran.

According to European and Israeli officials, Moscow has encouraged Tehran to accept a “zero enrichment” compromise and shared this position with Israeli authorities. “We know this is what Putin told the Iranians,” a senior Israeli official confirmed.

Last week, Putin is said to have relayed his stance in calls with US President Donald Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron.