Is There a Link Between Syria and Ukraine?

 Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on January 7, 2020. (AFP)
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on January 7, 2020. (AFP)
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Is There a Link Between Syria and Ukraine?

 Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on January 7, 2020. (AFP)
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on January 7, 2020. (AFP)

Geneva is hosting two meetings on Friday. The first between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, to discuss Ukraine, and the second between UN Envoy to Syria Geir Pedersen and US Official Ethan Goldrich to review the Syrian situation and propose a “step for step” approach.

Undisputedly, the two meetings do not have the same strategic importance and consequences. But once again, a thread is surfacing between the Syrian and Ukrainian issues. This link goes back to 2014 when Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to take on the Ukrainian adventure and then annexed Crimea in March 2014. At that time, Moscow asked Damascus to show firmness in the peace process negotiations that were taking place in Geneva.

Putin then intervened militarily in Syria at the end of 2015 and obtained an agreement from President Bashar al-Assad for a long-term establishment in the bases of Latakia and Tartus. At the time, Assad was quoted as telling Russian officials that Moscow “owed him” to consolidate its influence in the Middle East and that he was not like former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who fled to Russia in February 2014.

Putin says he wants written guarantees from the United States that NATO would not expand near its border in Ukraine. But Putin himself was intensifying Russian presence near the NATO borders when he established the Hmeimim base in western Syria and deployed advanced S-400 and S-300 missile batteries there, tens of kilometers from the NATO advanced base in Incirlik, southern Turkey. Since then, relations of “hostile cooperation” between Russia and Turkey have escalated in the Syrian theater and other regional and bilateral matters.

Another link between Ukraine and Syria surfaced in Turkish-Russian relations. Ankara refused to recognize the annexation of Crimea, developed its strategic relations with Kiev, providing it with the Bayraktar Combat Drones, which played a major role in changing the course of military battles against other Moscow-backed forces, such as in Libya, northwestern Syria, and Nagorno-Karabakh. As for Moscow, it continued to support the eastern Ukraine region. It is currently deploying tens of thousands of soldiers on the border and offering Europe and America its conditions for reversing the incursion.

Within this broad picture and strategic game, both Moscow and Washington eye Syria. Moscow provided an umbrella for normalization between Damascus and Crimea, by signing an agreement to link the port of Latakia and Crimea to be the crossing to Russia. The port of Latakia (and Tartus) is now in the hands of Moscow, which is trying to keep Tehran away from it and the warm waters of the Mediterranean and to protect it from Israeli raids.

Washington and Moscow cooperated on humanitarian aid across the Syrian border, and the prevention of military clashes east of the Euphrates. However, the diplomatic clash between the two capitals can be both loud and silent. The Russian side encourages Arab normalization with Damascus and refuses to see Pedersen’s “step for step” proposal as an alternative to the Astana process, which Moscow is running in cooperation with Ankara and Tehran. As for the US side, it opens the horizon of the “step for step” approach in its broader view and seeks to control the paths of Arab normalization with Syria.

What's new in the US position on Syria is the transition from “negative neutrality” to “positive engagement.” Washington launched a campaign through diplomatic channels towards several Arab countries to limit unilateral normalization steps with Damascus and prevent the country’s return to the Arab League before paying a price in the political process and “getting rid of Iranian influence.” This has put the idea of holding the Arab summit in Algeria at the end of March at stake.

After the Afghan experience, Joe Biden’s administration does not want another failure in Ukraine, Syria, or in the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program, amid growing pressure from Congress ahead of the upcoming elections.

According to an Arab diplomat who was briefed on the protest letter, Washington said that the continuation of the freezing decision conveyed a message that atrocities would not be tolerated, and that the regime must implement concrete and real steps before Arab countries make the move.

Some of the measures that Damascus is required to take on the political process under UN Security Council Resolution 2254, including “getting rid of Iran’s influence,” which is a matter agreed upon by Arab countries and Washington with the aim of “confronting Iran’s destabilizing behavior” for the sake of stability in the region.

Washington and its allies are aware of Jordan’s need to open economic channels with Syria, and the necessity to provide Damascus with other options to reduce Iran’s influence, which explains the support for the “Arab Gas Pipeline” and “electricity network” projects benefiting both Syria and Lebanon.

However, at the same time, US officials asked the Jordanian side whether it had obtained any concessions from Syria.

They asked: “Have the smuggling of illegal drugs and Captagon been stopped? Did you get security guarantees? Are the limits set? Did you get assurances for the safe return of the refugees?”

Washington also stressed that normalization should not be free of charge, calling on the Russian side to fulfill its obligations towards achieving stability in southern Syria and preventing smuggling across Jordan’s borders.

The Americans have repeatedly told their European and Arab allies that they “need to coordinate with us before making any move.” Washington “does not like surprises”... because it wants, as does Moscow, to put the Syria on the negotiating table and link it to other issues of varying priorities for the major stakeholders.



Israel’s Cutoff of Supplies to Gaza Sends Prices Soaring as Aid Stockpiles Dwindle

Members of Abed family, warm up by a fire at a tent camp for displaced Palestinians at the Muwasi, Rafah, southern Gaza Strip, Monday, Feb. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Jehad Alshrafi)
Members of Abed family, warm up by a fire at a tent camp for displaced Palestinians at the Muwasi, Rafah, southern Gaza Strip, Monday, Feb. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Jehad Alshrafi)
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Israel’s Cutoff of Supplies to Gaza Sends Prices Soaring as Aid Stockpiles Dwindle

Members of Abed family, warm up by a fire at a tent camp for displaced Palestinians at the Muwasi, Rafah, southern Gaza Strip, Monday, Feb. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Jehad Alshrafi)
Members of Abed family, warm up by a fire at a tent camp for displaced Palestinians at the Muwasi, Rafah, southern Gaza Strip, Monday, Feb. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Jehad Alshrafi)

Israel’s cutoff of food, fuel, medicine and other supplies to Gaza’s 2 million people has sent prices soaring and humanitarian groups into overdrive trying to distribute dwindling stocks to the most vulnerable.

The aid freeze has imperiled the progress aid workers say they have made to stave off famine over the past six weeks during Phase 1 of the ceasefire deal Israel and Hamas agreed to in January.

After more than 16 months of war, Gaza’s population is entirely dependent on trucked-in food and other aid. Most are displaced from their homes, and many need shelter. Fuel is needed to keep hospitals, water pumps, bakeries and telecommunications — as well as trucks delivering the aid — operating.

Israel says the siege aims at pressuring Hamas to accept its ceasefire proposal. Israel has delayed moving to the second phase of the deal it reached with Hamas, during which the flow of aid was supposed to continue. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that he is prepared to increase the pressure and would not rule out cutting off all electricity to Gaza if Hamas doesn’t budge.

Rights groups have called the cutoff a “starvation policy.”

Four days in, how is the cutoff affecting Gaza?

Food, fuel and shelter supplies are threatened The World Food Program, the UN's main food agency, says it has no major stockpile of food in Gaza because it focused on distributing all incoming food to hungry people during Phase 1 of the deal. In a statement to AP, it said existing stocks are enough to keep bakeries and kitchens running for under two weeks.

WFP said it may be forced to reduce ration sizes to serve as many people as possible. It said its fuel reserves, necessary to run bakeries and transport food, will last for a few weeks if not replenished soon.

There’s also no major stockpile of tents in Gaza, said Shaina Low, communications adviser for the Norwegian Refugee Council. The shelter materials that came in during the ceasefire’s first phase were “nowhere near enough to address all of the needs,” she said.

“If it was enough, we wouldn’t have had infants dying from exposure because of lack of shelter materials and warm clothes and proper medical equipment to treat them,” she said.

At least seven infants in Gaza died from hypothermia during Phase 1.

Urgently checking reserves “We’re trying to figure out, what do we have? What would be the best use of our supply?" said Jonathan Crickx, chief of communication for UNICEF. "We never sat on supplies, so it’s not like there’s a huge amount left to distribute.”

He predicted a “catastrophic result” if the aid freeze continues.

During the ceasefire's first phase, humanitarian agencies rushed in supplies, with about 600 trucks entering per day on average. Aid workers set up more food kitchens, health centers and water distribution points. With more fuel coming in, they could double the amount of water drawn from wells, according to the UN humanitarian agency.

Around 100,000 tents also arrived as hundreds of thousands of Palestinians tried to return to their homes, only to find them destroyed or too damaged to live in.

But the progress relied on the flow of aid continuing.

Oxfam has 26 trucks with thousands of food packages and hygiene kits and 12 trucks of water tanks waiting outside Gaza, said Bushra Khalidi, Oxfam’s policy lead in the West Bank.

“This is not just about hundreds of trucks of food, it’s about the total collapse of systems that sustain life,” she said.

The International Organization for Migration has 22,500 tents in its warehouses in Jordan after trucks brought back their undelivered cargo once entry was barred, said Karl Baker, the agency's regional crisis coordinator.

The International Rescue Committee has 6.7 tons of medicines and medical supplies waiting to enter Gaza and its delivery is “highly uncertain,” said Bob Kitchen, vice president of its emergencies and humanitarian action department.

Medical Aid for Palestinians said it has trucks stuck at Gaza's border carrying medicine, mattresses and assistive devices for people with disabilities. The organization has some medicine and materials in reserve, said spokesperson Tess Pope, but "we don’t have stock that we can use during a long closure of Gaza.”

Prices up sharply Prices of vegetables and flour are now climbing in Gaza after easing during the ceasefire.

Sayed Mohamed al-Dairi walked through a bustling market in Gaza City just after the aid cutoff was announced. Already, sellers were increasing the prices of dwindling wares.

“The traders are massacring us, the traders are not merciful to us,” he said. “In the morning, the price of sugar was 5 shekels. Ask him now, the price has become 10 shekels.”

In the central Gaza city of Deir Al-Balah, one cigarette priced at 5 shekels ($1.37) before the cutoff now stands at 20 shekels ($5.49). One kilo of chicken (2.2 pounds) that was 21 shekels ($5.76) is now 50 shekels ($13.72). Cooking gas has soared from 90 shekels ($24.70) for 12 kilos (26.4 pounds) to 1,480 shekels ($406.24).

Following the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, Israel cut off all aid to Gaza for two weeks — a measure central to South Africa’s case accusing Israel of genocide in Gaza at the International Court of Justice. That took place as Israel launched the most intense phase of its aerial bombardment of Gaza, one of the most aggressive campaigns in modern history.

Palestinians fear a repeat of that period.

“We are afraid that Netanyahu or Trump will launch a war more severe than the previous war,” said Abeer Obeid, a Palestinian woman from northern Gaza. "For the extension of the truce, they must find any other solution.”