Is There a Link Between Syria and Ukraine?

 Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on January 7, 2020. (AFP)
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on January 7, 2020. (AFP)
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Is There a Link Between Syria and Ukraine?

 Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on January 7, 2020. (AFP)
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on January 7, 2020. (AFP)

Geneva is hosting two meetings on Friday. The first between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, to discuss Ukraine, and the second between UN Envoy to Syria Geir Pedersen and US Official Ethan Goldrich to review the Syrian situation and propose a “step for step” approach.

Undisputedly, the two meetings do not have the same strategic importance and consequences. But once again, a thread is surfacing between the Syrian and Ukrainian issues. This link goes back to 2014 when Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to take on the Ukrainian adventure and then annexed Crimea in March 2014. At that time, Moscow asked Damascus to show firmness in the peace process negotiations that were taking place in Geneva.

Putin then intervened militarily in Syria at the end of 2015 and obtained an agreement from President Bashar al-Assad for a long-term establishment in the bases of Latakia and Tartus. At the time, Assad was quoted as telling Russian officials that Moscow “owed him” to consolidate its influence in the Middle East and that he was not like former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who fled to Russia in February 2014.

Putin says he wants written guarantees from the United States that NATO would not expand near its border in Ukraine. But Putin himself was intensifying Russian presence near the NATO borders when he established the Hmeimim base in western Syria and deployed advanced S-400 and S-300 missile batteries there, tens of kilometers from the NATO advanced base in Incirlik, southern Turkey. Since then, relations of “hostile cooperation” between Russia and Turkey have escalated in the Syrian theater and other regional and bilateral matters.

Another link between Ukraine and Syria surfaced in Turkish-Russian relations. Ankara refused to recognize the annexation of Crimea, developed its strategic relations with Kiev, providing it with the Bayraktar Combat Drones, which played a major role in changing the course of military battles against other Moscow-backed forces, such as in Libya, northwestern Syria, and Nagorno-Karabakh. As for Moscow, it continued to support the eastern Ukraine region. It is currently deploying tens of thousands of soldiers on the border and offering Europe and America its conditions for reversing the incursion.

Within this broad picture and strategic game, both Moscow and Washington eye Syria. Moscow provided an umbrella for normalization between Damascus and Crimea, by signing an agreement to link the port of Latakia and Crimea to be the crossing to Russia. The port of Latakia (and Tartus) is now in the hands of Moscow, which is trying to keep Tehran away from it and the warm waters of the Mediterranean and to protect it from Israeli raids.

Washington and Moscow cooperated on humanitarian aid across the Syrian border, and the prevention of military clashes east of the Euphrates. However, the diplomatic clash between the two capitals can be both loud and silent. The Russian side encourages Arab normalization with Damascus and refuses to see Pedersen’s “step for step” proposal as an alternative to the Astana process, which Moscow is running in cooperation with Ankara and Tehran. As for the US side, it opens the horizon of the “step for step” approach in its broader view and seeks to control the paths of Arab normalization with Syria.

What's new in the US position on Syria is the transition from “negative neutrality” to “positive engagement.” Washington launched a campaign through diplomatic channels towards several Arab countries to limit unilateral normalization steps with Damascus and prevent the country’s return to the Arab League before paying a price in the political process and “getting rid of Iranian influence.” This has put the idea of holding the Arab summit in Algeria at the end of March at stake.

After the Afghan experience, Joe Biden’s administration does not want another failure in Ukraine, Syria, or in the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program, amid growing pressure from Congress ahead of the upcoming elections.

According to an Arab diplomat who was briefed on the protest letter, Washington said that the continuation of the freezing decision conveyed a message that atrocities would not be tolerated, and that the regime must implement concrete and real steps before Arab countries make the move.

Some of the measures that Damascus is required to take on the political process under UN Security Council Resolution 2254, including “getting rid of Iran’s influence,” which is a matter agreed upon by Arab countries and Washington with the aim of “confronting Iran’s destabilizing behavior” for the sake of stability in the region.

Washington and its allies are aware of Jordan’s need to open economic channels with Syria, and the necessity to provide Damascus with other options to reduce Iran’s influence, which explains the support for the “Arab Gas Pipeline” and “electricity network” projects benefiting both Syria and Lebanon.

However, at the same time, US officials asked the Jordanian side whether it had obtained any concessions from Syria.

They asked: “Have the smuggling of illegal drugs and Captagon been stopped? Did you get security guarantees? Are the limits set? Did you get assurances for the safe return of the refugees?”

Washington also stressed that normalization should not be free of charge, calling on the Russian side to fulfill its obligations towards achieving stability in southern Syria and preventing smuggling across Jordan’s borders.

The Americans have repeatedly told their European and Arab allies that they “need to coordinate with us before making any move.” Washington “does not like surprises”... because it wants, as does Moscow, to put the Syria on the negotiating table and link it to other issues of varying priorities for the major stakeholders.



What Would Lifting US Sanctions on Syria Mean to the War-Torn Country?

People walk past a billboard displaying Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister, and US President Donald Trump with a slogan thanking Saudi Arabia and the United States, in Damascus on May 14, 2025. (AFP)
People walk past a billboard displaying Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister, and US President Donald Trump with a slogan thanking Saudi Arabia and the United States, in Damascus on May 14, 2025. (AFP)
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What Would Lifting US Sanctions on Syria Mean to the War-Torn Country?

People walk past a billboard displaying Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister, and US President Donald Trump with a slogan thanking Saudi Arabia and the United States, in Damascus on May 14, 2025. (AFP)
People walk past a billboard displaying Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister, and US President Donald Trump with a slogan thanking Saudi Arabia and the United States, in Damascus on May 14, 2025. (AFP)

President Donald Trump’s announcement that the US will ease sanctions on Syria could eventually facilitate the country’s recovery from years of civil war and transform the lives of everyday Syrians.

But experts say it will take time, and the process for lifting the sanctions — some of which were first introduced 47 years ago — is unclear.

“I think people view sanctions as a switch that you turn on and off,” said Karam Shaar, a Syrian economist who runs the consultancy firm Karam Shaar Advisory Limited. “Far from it.”

Still, the move could bring much-needed investment to the country, which is emerging from decades of autocratic rule by the Assad family as well as the war. It needs tens of billions of dollars to restore its battered infrastructure and pull an estimated 90% of the population out of poverty.

And Trump’s pledge has already had an effect: Syrians celebrated in streets across the country, and Arab leaders in neighboring nations that host millions of refugees who fled Syria’s war praised the announcement.

What are the US sanctions on Syria? Washington has imposed three sanctions programs on Syria. In 1979, the country was designated a “state sponsor of terrorism” because its military was involved in neighboring Lebanon's civil war and had backed armed groups there, and eventually developed strong ties with the Iran-backed Hezbollah group.

In 2003, then-President George W. Bush signed the Syria Accountability Act into law, as his administration faced off with Iran and Tehran-backed governments and groups in the Middle East. The legislation focused heavily on Syria's support of designated terror groups, its military presence in Lebanon, its alleged development of weapons of mass destruction, as well as oil smuggling and the backing of armed groups in Iraq after the US-led invasion.

In 2019, during Trump's first term, he signed the Caesar Act, sanctioning Syrian troops and others responsible for atrocities committed during the civil war.

Caesar is the code name for a Syrian photographer who took thousands of photographs of victims of torture and other abuses and smuggled them out of the country. The images, taken between 2011 and 2013, were turned over to human rights advocates, exposing the scale of the Syrian government’s brutal crackdown on political opponents and dissidents during countrywide protests.

What has been the impact of US sanctions on Syria? The sanctions — along with similar measures by other countries — have touched every part of the Syrian economy and everyday life in the country.

They have led to shortages of goods from fuel to medicine, and made it difficult for humanitarian agencies responding to receive funding and operate fully.

Companies around the world struggle to export to Syria, and Syrians struggle to import goods of any kind because nearly all financial transactions with the country are banned. That has led to a blossoming black market of smuggled goods.

Simple tasks like updating smartphones are difficult, if not impossible, and many people resort to virtual private networks, or VPNs, which mask online activity, to access the internet because many websites block users with Syrian IP addresses.

The impact was especially stark after a devastating 7.8 magnitude earthquake hit Türkiye and northern Syria in February 2023, compounding the destruction and misery that the war had already brought.

Though the US Treasury issued a six-month exemption on all financial transactions related to disaster relief, the measures had limited effect since banks and companies were nervous to take the risk, a phenomenon known as over-compliance.

Interim Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa — who led the insurgency that ousted President Bashar al-Assad — has argued the sanctions have outlived their purpose and are now only harming the Syrian people and ultimately preventing the country from any prospect of recovery.

Trump and Sharaa met Wednesday.

Washington eased some restrictions temporarily in January but did not lift the sanctions. Britain and the European Union have eased some of their measures.

What could lifting the sanctions mean for Syria? After Trump’s announcement, Syria's currency gained 60% on Tuesday night — a signal of how transformational the removal of sanctions could be.

Still, it will take time to see any tangible impact on Syria's economy, experts say, but removing all three sanctions regimes could bring major changes to the lives of Syrians, given how all-encompassing the measures are.

It could mean banks could return to the international financial system or car repair shops could import spare parts from abroad. If the economy improves and reconstruction projects take off, many Syrian refugees who live in crowded tented encampments relying on aid to survive could decide to return home.

“If the situation stabilized and there were reforms, we will then see Syrians returning to their country if they were given opportunities as we expect,” says Lebanese economist Mounis Younes.

The easing of sanctions also has an important symbolic weight because it would signal that Syria is no longer a pariah, said Shaar.

Mathieu Rouquette, Mercy Corps’ country director for Syria, said the move “marks a potentially transformative moment for millions of Syrians who have endured more than 13 years of economic hardship, conflict, and displacement.”

But it all depends on how Washington goes about it.

“Unless enough layers of sanctions are peeled off, you cannot expect the positive impacts on Syria to start to appear,” said Shaar. “Even if you remove some of the top ones, the impact economically would still be nonexistent.”