OPEC+ to Stick to Policy Despite Oil Price Rally

OPEC+ faced American and Indian calls to pump more oil, but it kept its production policy to stabilize the market (Reuters)
OPEC+ faced American and Indian calls to pump more oil, but it kept its production policy to stabilize the market (Reuters)
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OPEC+ to Stick to Policy Despite Oil Price Rally

OPEC+ faced American and Indian calls to pump more oil, but it kept its production policy to stabilize the market (Reuters)
OPEC+ faced American and Indian calls to pump more oil, but it kept its production policy to stabilize the market (Reuters)

OPEC+ will likely stick to existing policies of moderate output increases even as it expects demand to rise to new peaks this year and as oil prices trade near their highest since 2014.

The group, which comprises of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia and produces over 40% of global supply, has faced pressure from top consumers such as the United States and India to pump more to help the economic recovery from the pandemic.

But OPEC+ has refused to adhere to speedier increases of 400,000 barrels per day in March, arguing that the world is facing an energy shortage due to poorly calculated energy transitions to greener fuels by consuming nations.

Reuters quoted several OPEC+ sources as saying that prices had been pushed up by Russia-US tensions. Washington has accused Moscow of planning to invade Ukraine, which Russia denies.

OPEC+ oil output increases are complicated by the fact that several OPEC members have struggled to meet even current monthly targets and lack spare capacity to boost production any further.

Brent crude was trading up one percent above $90 a barrel on Wednesday and touched a seven-year high of $91.70 last week, amid tensions in Europe and the Middle East.

A report prepared by the committee, known as the Joint Technical Committee (JTC), and seen by Reuters, kept the 2022 forecast for world oil demand growth unchanged at 4.2 million bpd, and said demand would hit pre-pandemic levels in the second half of the year.

Oil demand was slightly above 100 million bpd in 2019 but was hammered by the pandemic in 2020, when OPEC+ cut its production by a record 10 million bpd or 10 percent of global supply.

The report still said the world would face a crude surplus in 2022 reaching 1.3 million bpd, slightly less than its previous forecast of 1.4 million bpd.

The remaining cuts stand at 2.6 million bpd and OPEC+ hopes to wind them down before the end of the year.



Gold on Track for Weekly Gain on Trump Uncertainty; US Jobs Report Awaited

A view shows ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold in a workroom during production at Krastsvetmet precious metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia, May 23, 2024. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk
A view shows ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold in a workroom during production at Krastsvetmet precious metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia, May 23, 2024. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk
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Gold on Track for Weekly Gain on Trump Uncertainty; US Jobs Report Awaited

A view shows ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold in a workroom during production at Krastsvetmet precious metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia, May 23, 2024. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk
A view shows ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold in a workroom during production at Krastsvetmet precious metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia, May 23, 2024. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk

Gold prices inched higher on Friday as uncertainty around US President-elect Donald Trump's policies firmed demand for bullion, while investors awaited a key jobs report to assess the Federal Reserve's rate cut trajectory.
Spot gold edged 0.2% higher to $2,675.49 per ounce as of 0725 GMT. Bullion has gained more than 1% so far this week, set for its highest weekly jump since mid-November. US gold futures rose 0.3% to $2,698.30.
The US non-farm payrolls report is due at 1330 GMT. According to a Reuters survey, payrolls are expected to have increased by 160,000 in December, following a jump of 227,000 in November.
"We expect gold to drop a little in case the non-farm payroll report comes on a higher side," said Jigar Trivedi, senior analyst at Reliance Securities.
"Gold found support after a weaker-than-expected private employment report for December reinforced the notion that the Fed may need to adopt a less cautious approach to rate cuts," Trivedi said.
Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid on Thursday signaled a reluctance to cut rates again as the Fed faces a resilient economy and inflation that remains above its 2% target.
Trump's proposed tariffs and immigration policies may also prolong the fight against inflation.
Traders now expect the first Fed rate cut this year in either May or June, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Gold acts as a hedge against inflation, but higher interest rates reduce the appeal of holding the bullion.
Spot silver was up 0.3% to $30.2 per ounce and the COMEX contract was trading at $31.17, both near one-month peaks.
"Our view is that the incoming US administration will tailor economic and trade policy to promote national prosperity, and that silver will recover along with gold in the second half (of 2025) to $35 per ounce," Deutsche Bank said in a note.
Platinum shed 0.4% to $955.97 and palladium added 0.9% to $934.16. All three metals were also set for weekly gains.