Egypt Eyes Bread Subsidy Overhaul as Global Inflation Bites

Egypt is considering replacing the popular bread subsidy with cash payments to the poor to protect the budget from a sharp rise in international wheat prices (Reuters)
Egypt is considering replacing the popular bread subsidy with cash payments to the poor to protect the budget from a sharp rise in international wheat prices (Reuters)
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Egypt Eyes Bread Subsidy Overhaul as Global Inflation Bites

Egypt is considering replacing the popular bread subsidy with cash payments to the poor to protect the budget from a sharp rise in international wheat prices (Reuters)
Egypt is considering replacing the popular bread subsidy with cash payments to the poor to protect the budget from a sharp rise in international wheat prices (Reuters)

Egypt is considering replacing a popular bread subsidy with cash payments for the poor to protect the budget from soaring global wheat prices, but domestic inflation could make the government opt for a less ambitious reform.

Under the existing program, more than 60 million Egyptians, or nearly two thirds of the population, get five loaves of round bread daily for 50 cents a month, little changed since countrywide “bread riots” prevented a price hike in the 1970s.

The handout is a lifeline to the poor, but is widely criticized as wasteful. High global prices for wheat, which Egypt imports on a vast scale, led President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to say last year that it was time to tackle the bread subsidy.

Ali Moselhy, the minister in charge of subsidies, told Reuters that inflation, which has climbed in recent months to 6% from 4% earlier in 2021, made it harder to replace the support for bread and other food with cash handouts.

“When inflation is stable, then you can introduce cash,” he said.

Moselhy has said he personally favors giving people money specifically to buy bread. Eligible Egyptians already get a monthly $3.20 voucher for other subsidised food.

However, he said a broader idea to introduce unconditional payments, favored by many economists as the most efficient welfare system, risked driving up prices by putting more cash into circulation at a time of rising inflation.

The government aims to draw up a plan for reformed food subsidies in time for March budget preparations, officials have recently said.

Moselhy said that for now, the government had not taken a decision on what to do, and was focused on improving the database of recipients, with the intention of “finding out who needs what.”

That could mean that any changes are more limited in nature, perhaps trimming the program through means testing, restricting how many people in a household are eligible, or increasing the price of subsidized bread.

Bassant Ibrahim, 36, a housewife living in Beheira, north-west of Cairo, said any such restrictions should not hurt families like hers, which relies on the subsidies to bolster her husband's $180-a-month teaching salary and feed four children.

"There are rich people with cards who you can sift out, but the poor shouldn't have to pay the price," said Ibrahim, who said the family daily ate the ten loaves of bread they received, sometimes finishing them by lunchtime.

Ahmed Mohamed, 24, a married gardener in Cairo with two children, said he could live without the government paying for his daily bread.

"There are other people who need it more than I do," he said.

However, Ahmed Darwish, a former minister who oversaw a transition to a smart subsidy card system in the early 2000s, said authorities would have to step carefully to reassure people that any changes will not leave them overly exposed.

"Until the government says that this subsidy would be increased with inflation, they have to comfort people," Darwish said.



Oil Prices Rise as Iran Suspends Cooperation with UN Nuclear Watchdog

An aerial view shows a crude oil tanker at an oil terminal off Waidiao island in Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, China January 4, 2023. China Daily via REUTERS
An aerial view shows a crude oil tanker at an oil terminal off Waidiao island in Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, China January 4, 2023. China Daily via REUTERS
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Oil Prices Rise as Iran Suspends Cooperation with UN Nuclear Watchdog

An aerial view shows a crude oil tanker at an oil terminal off Waidiao island in Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, China January 4, 2023. China Daily via REUTERS
An aerial view shows a crude oil tanker at an oil terminal off Waidiao island in Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, China January 4, 2023. China Daily via REUTERS

Oil futures edged up on Wednesday as Iran suspended cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog and markets weighed expectations of more supply from major producers next month, while the US dollar softened further. Brent crude was up 55 cents, or 0.8%, to $67.66 a barrel at 1301 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude rose 58 cents, or nearly 0.9%, to $66.03 a barrel.

Brent has traded between a high of $69.05 a barrel and low of $66.34 since June 25, as concerns of supply disruptions in the Middle East have ebbed following a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Iran enacted a law on Wednesday that stipulates any future inspection of its nuclear sites by the International Atomic Energy Agency needs approval by Tehran's Supreme National Security Council. The country has accused the agency of siding with Western countries and providing a justification for Israel's air strikes, according to Reuters.

"The market is pricing in some geopolitical risk premium from Iran's move on the IAEA," said Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at UBS. "But this is about sentiment, there are no disruptions to oil." Planned supply increases by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, appear already priced in by investors and are unlikely to catch markets off-guard again imminently, said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at brokerage Phillip Nova. Four OPEC+ sources told Reuters last week the group plans to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day next month when it meets on July 6, a similar amount to the hikes agreed for May, June and July. "We are all talking about additional supply coming to the market, but the supply has not really hit the market," UBS' Staunovo said. "Probably because it's being consumed domestically."

Overall OPEC+ exports are relatively flat to slightly down since March, Staunovo said. He expects this trend to persist over the summer as hot weather drives higher energy demand. The greenback continued to weaken, falling to a 3-1/2-year low against its major peers on Wednesday. A weaker dollar tends to support oil prices, as it can boost demand for buyers paying in other currencies.

The release of the key US monthly employment report on Thursday will shape expectations around the depth and timing of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of this year, said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG.

Lower interest rates could spur economic activity, which would in turn boost oil demand. Official US oil stockpile data from the Energy Information Administration is due to be released at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) on Wednesday. American Petroleum Institute data late on Tuesday showed US crude oil inventories rose by 680,000 barrels in the past week at a time when stockpiles are typically drawn down amid summer demand, sources said.