Ukraine Not Joining NATO So Why Does Putin Worry?

Putin opposes NATO's missile defense presence in Romania and a similar base under development in Poland, saying they could be converted to offensive weapons capable of threatening Russia. (AP)
Putin opposes NATO's missile defense presence in Romania and a similar base under development in Poland, saying they could be converted to offensive weapons capable of threatening Russia. (AP)
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Ukraine Not Joining NATO So Why Does Putin Worry?

Putin opposes NATO's missile defense presence in Romania and a similar base under development in Poland, saying they could be converted to offensive weapons capable of threatening Russia. (AP)
Putin opposes NATO's missile defense presence in Romania and a similar base under development in Poland, saying they could be converted to offensive weapons capable of threatening Russia. (AP)

At the core of the Ukraine crisis is a puzzle: Why would Russian President Vladimir Putin push Europe to the brink of war to demand the West not do something that it has no plan to do anyway?

Russia says NATO, the American-led alliance that has on its hands the biggest European crisis in decades, must never offer membership to Ukraine, which gained independence as the Soviet Union broke apart about 30 years ago. Ukraine has long aspired to join NATO, but the alliance is not about to offer an invitation, due in part to Ukraine's official corruption, shortcomings in its defense establishment, and its lack of control over its international borders.

Putin's demands go beyond the question of Ukraine's association with NATO, but that link is central to his complaint that the West has pushed him to the limits of his patience by edging closer to Russian borders. He asserts that NATO expansion years ago has enhanced its security at the expense of Russia's.

The Russians demand a legal guarantee that Ukraine be denied NATO membership, knowing that NATO as a matter of principle has never excluded potential membership for any European country — even Russia — but has no plan to start Ukraine down the road toward membership in the foreseeable future. The principle cited by NATO is that all nations should be free to choose whom they align with.

Why, then, is Moscow making an issue of Ukraine's relationship with NATO now? The answer is complicated.

Why is Putin worried about Ukraine joining NATO?

The stated reason is that a further eastward expansion of NATO would pose a security threat to Russia. Washington and its allies deny this is a valid worry, since no NATO country is threatening to use force against Russia.

More broadly, Putin wants NATO to pull back its existing military presence in Eastern Europe, which includes a regularly rotating series of exercises in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, all former Soviet states. There are no US troops based permanently in those three Baltic countries; currently there are about 100 serving a rotational tour in Lithuania and about 60 in Estonia and Latvia combined, the Pentagon says.

Putin also opposes NATO's missile defense presence in Romania, a former Soviet satellite state, and a similar base under development in Poland, saying they could be converted to offensive weapons capable of threatening Russia. President Joe Biden this week approved sending an additional 2,700 American troops to Eastern Europe — 1,700 to Poland and 1,000 to Romania — plus 300 to Germany.

Ukraine has deep historical and cultural ties to Russia, and Putin has repeatedly asserted that Russians and Ukrainians are “one people.” He has said that large chunks of Ukrainian territory are historical parts of Russia that were arbitrarily granted to Ukraine by communist leaders under the Soviet Union.

Putin's own actions, however, have served to strengthen Ukrainians' sense of national identity. After Russia seized the Crimean Peninsula and instigated a rebellion in eastern Ukraine in 2014, Ukraine's desire to align itself with the West and join NATO only grew.

Putin recently described his Ukraine concern more specifically. He sketched out a scenario in which Ukraine might use military force to reclaim the Crimean Peninsula or to recapture areas in eastern Ukraine that are now effectively controlled by Russian-backed separatists.

“Imagine that Ukraine becomes a NATO member and launches those military operations,” Putin said. “Should we fight NATO then? Has anyone thought about it?”

Indeed, some in NATO have thought about the prospect of an expanded war with Russia inside Ukraine. It is a reminder of what NATO membership means — an attack on one is an attack on all, which in the theoretical case of Ukraine being attacked by Russia would mean a legal commitment by every NATO member to come to its defense.

What are Ukraine’s prospects for joining NATO?

The prospects are extremely unlikely for the foreseeable future.

Although Ukraine has no membership offer from NATO, it has drawn closer to the alliance over time, starting with the establishment in 1997 of a NATO-Ukraine Charter to further develop cooperation.

NATO heads of government did publicly declare in 2008 that Ukraine, and its fellow former Soviet republic Georgia, “will become members of NATO.” They did not say when or how, but the statement could be seen as explaining Moscow’s concern that Kyiv eventually will join the alliance.

On the other hand, the US and other NATO leaders who signed the 2008 statement about Ukraine and Georgia decided against giving them what is known as a Membership Action Plan — a pathway to eventual membership. Germany and France strongly opposed moving Ukraine toward membership and the broader view within NATO was that Ukraine would have to complete far-reaching government reforms before becoming a candidate for membership.

This seeming contradiction has never been resolved, which means that while NATO's door is open, Ukraine won't fit through anytime soon.

How is Putin pressuring Ukraine?

Moscow says it has no intention of invading Ukraine, yet over the past several months it has assembled a robust array of combat forces along Ukraine’s borders and has implied it will take action of some kind if its demands of Washington and NATO are not met. The Biden administration says Russia is now capable of a wide range of actions, including a full-scale invasion to capture Kyiv.

Putin says NATO has gone too far not only by providing Ukraine with weaponry and military training but also by stationing forces in other Eastern European countries that compromise Russian security.

It’s also true that increases over the past decade in the US and NATO military presence in Eastern Europe were triggered by Russia’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula and its incursion into eastern Ukraine in 2014. Those Russian actions prompted NATO to redouble its focus on collective security. In September 2014, NATO leaders established a new rapid-response force capable of deploying within days, and they reaffirmed pledges to boost their defense spending.



Facing a Government Crackdown on Dissent, Türkiye's Protesters Put Aside Their Differences

A protester holds a Turkish flag as riot police stand guard during a protest against the arrest of Istanbul's Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, outside Caglayan courthouse, in Istanbul, Türkiye, Sunday, March 23, 2025. (AP)
A protester holds a Turkish flag as riot police stand guard during a protest against the arrest of Istanbul's Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, outside Caglayan courthouse, in Istanbul, Türkiye, Sunday, March 23, 2025. (AP)
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Facing a Government Crackdown on Dissent, Türkiye's Protesters Put Aside Their Differences

A protester holds a Turkish flag as riot police stand guard during a protest against the arrest of Istanbul's Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, outside Caglayan courthouse, in Istanbul, Türkiye, Sunday, March 23, 2025. (AP)
A protester holds a Turkish flag as riot police stand guard during a protest against the arrest of Istanbul's Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, outside Caglayan courthouse, in Istanbul, Türkiye, Sunday, March 23, 2025. (AP)

The arrest of an opposition presidential candidate last month has triggered Türkiye's largest anti-government protests in more than a decade, uniting demonstrators from different walks of life and sometimes diametrically opposed political views.

It includes supporters of popular Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, and young people who see all politicians as ineffective. Protesters range from the socialist left to the ultra-nationalist right, and from university students to retirees.

They are united by a sense that the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has grown increasingly authoritarian, diminishing the secular and democratic values and laws that the country was built upon. They are fueled by outrage at Imamoglu's arrest and the government's attempts to quell the ensuing protests.

The protests began after the government arrested Imamoglu, the man seen as posing the most serious electoral challenge to Erdogan in years, on March 19. Prosecutors accuse him of corruption and aiding an outlawed Kurdish organization.

Critics say the charges are an excuse to get a key rival out of the way, but the government denies interfering with the legal process.

The largest protests have happened alongside rallies of Imamoglu's center-left pro-secularist Republican People’s Party, known as the CHP, but many young protesters said they don't support the party.

Ogulcan Akti, a 26-year-old university student working two part-time jobs to support his family, said both the opposition and the ruling party are "liars."

"The ones in power and the opposition that will come later, they’re all the same," he said. "We don’t trust anyone."

In the days after the mayor's arrest, thousands of students converged near Istanbul city hall. Some waved Turkish flags; others held images of left-wing figures from the 1970s and sang a Turkish version of the Italian protest song "Bella ciao."

In images on social media, some protesters made the ultranationalist "grey wolf" hand sign, standing next to others showing the leftists' raised fist. Some showed the peace sign favored by both leftists and pro-Kurdish groups, while others chanted slogans attacking the banned militant Kurdistan Workers’ Party.

Berk Esen, an associate professor of political science at Sabanci University, said most protesters he has seen are educated, urban young people aged 18 to 25, but they have little else in common: "This is a much more amorphous, eclectic group politically," he said.

One afternoon last week, dozens of students from Bogazici University gathered at a metro station in Istanbul, many wearing masks to avoid reprisals or arrest.

More than 2,000 people, including journalists, have been detained since the protests began. Around 300 were formally arrested on charges including "joining an illegal protest" and "resisting the police," with some accused of "terrorism links."

Lawyers for the arrested students say that the charge of "joining an illegal protest" does not justify extended detention, and that the number of arrests is "unusually high" compared to offenses such as terrorism or drugs.

At the metro station, 22-year-old management student Burak Turan and his girlfriend slipped into a mall, watching officers detain dozens of protesters.

"We are here because so many students are getting arrested for no reason," Turan said. "They act like it’s a war; they are exercising wartime laws." Turan refused to wear a mask, saying he had nothing to be ashamed of.

Other protesters include public employees, artists and retirees, many of whom support the CHP.

A man in his 60s watching a standoff at city hall said he was there to defend the rights of the younger generation. "We don’t matter, they do. They are our future." he said.

Others were there to speak out against as what they perceived as a slide away from Türkiye's secular and democratic values under Erdogan.

Mehtap Bozkurt, a 70-year-old pensioner and a CHP supporter, joined a protest outside Istanbul city hall.

"This country is secular and will remain secular," she said. "We will resist until the end. I am ready to give my life and blood for this issue."

That doesn't mean that people protesting aren't practicing Muslims, said Esen, the Sabanci academic. "There are Muslims, religious people and those who at least perform some religious duties amongst the protesters," he said. "But they also probably define themselves as secular."

Parents protest treatment of students

Outside the courts in Istanbul, parents and relatives, some holding flowers, maintained an anxious vigil. Some hoped for a loved one's immediate release, while others were overcome with frustration. One family member, who asked to remain anonymous fearing reprisals from officials, told local media that the detained students had "studied day and night to get into the best universities."

"Look at the treatment they are receiving now. There are no rights. There is no law. There is no justice," she said.

Another woman showed journalists a picture of her son with a black eye. "He told me, ‘Mom, they beat me up,’" she said tearfully. Another woman said she was a cancer patient left waiting since dawn. "What did these kids do? Did they murder someone? What did they even do?"

Around 300 protesters spent the Eid holiday in prison, separated from their families.

Lawyers for several protesters told The Associated Press that students are held in overcrowded cells and face physical and verbal mistreatment, as well as limited access to meals since prison commissaries are closed for Eid. Lawyers also fear that students could miss exams or be expelled as a "punishment" for taking part in the protests.

On Thursday the police issued a statement describing as "vile slander" claims that women had been sexually assaulted in custody.

The Interior Ministry said that at least 150 police officers were injured in clashes with demonstrators. Images from the protests showed riot police using tear gas and plastic pellets, while students threw plastic water bottles and flares.

A pivotal moment Esen says the protests may mark a pivotal moment for Türkiye.

"Will the police violence used by the government against them make them throw in the towel after a certain point or will it bring about a bigger showdown and make this a long-term affair? If the latter happens, I will be very optimistic about Türkiye becoming democratic again. If the former happens, all of this is heading toward a very bad place," he said.

A young female protester wearing a mask watched the standoff with police unfolding near city hall last week.

"I am here today because I do not accept autocracy," she said. "Ekrem Imamoglu’s arrest means that we accept that there will be no more elections in this country. I do not accept this."