Ukraine Not Joining NATO So Why Does Putin Worry?

Putin opposes NATO's missile defense presence in Romania and a similar base under development in Poland, saying they could be converted to offensive weapons capable of threatening Russia. (AP)
Putin opposes NATO's missile defense presence in Romania and a similar base under development in Poland, saying they could be converted to offensive weapons capable of threatening Russia. (AP)
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Ukraine Not Joining NATO So Why Does Putin Worry?

Putin opposes NATO's missile defense presence in Romania and a similar base under development in Poland, saying they could be converted to offensive weapons capable of threatening Russia. (AP)
Putin opposes NATO's missile defense presence in Romania and a similar base under development in Poland, saying they could be converted to offensive weapons capable of threatening Russia. (AP)

At the core of the Ukraine crisis is a puzzle: Why would Russian President Vladimir Putin push Europe to the brink of war to demand the West not do something that it has no plan to do anyway?

Russia says NATO, the American-led alliance that has on its hands the biggest European crisis in decades, must never offer membership to Ukraine, which gained independence as the Soviet Union broke apart about 30 years ago. Ukraine has long aspired to join NATO, but the alliance is not about to offer an invitation, due in part to Ukraine's official corruption, shortcomings in its defense establishment, and its lack of control over its international borders.

Putin's demands go beyond the question of Ukraine's association with NATO, but that link is central to his complaint that the West has pushed him to the limits of his patience by edging closer to Russian borders. He asserts that NATO expansion years ago has enhanced its security at the expense of Russia's.

The Russians demand a legal guarantee that Ukraine be denied NATO membership, knowing that NATO as a matter of principle has never excluded potential membership for any European country — even Russia — but has no plan to start Ukraine down the road toward membership in the foreseeable future. The principle cited by NATO is that all nations should be free to choose whom they align with.

Why, then, is Moscow making an issue of Ukraine's relationship with NATO now? The answer is complicated.

Why is Putin worried about Ukraine joining NATO?

The stated reason is that a further eastward expansion of NATO would pose a security threat to Russia. Washington and its allies deny this is a valid worry, since no NATO country is threatening to use force against Russia.

More broadly, Putin wants NATO to pull back its existing military presence in Eastern Europe, which includes a regularly rotating series of exercises in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, all former Soviet states. There are no US troops based permanently in those three Baltic countries; currently there are about 100 serving a rotational tour in Lithuania and about 60 in Estonia and Latvia combined, the Pentagon says.

Putin also opposes NATO's missile defense presence in Romania, a former Soviet satellite state, and a similar base under development in Poland, saying they could be converted to offensive weapons capable of threatening Russia. President Joe Biden this week approved sending an additional 2,700 American troops to Eastern Europe — 1,700 to Poland and 1,000 to Romania — plus 300 to Germany.

Ukraine has deep historical and cultural ties to Russia, and Putin has repeatedly asserted that Russians and Ukrainians are “one people.” He has said that large chunks of Ukrainian territory are historical parts of Russia that were arbitrarily granted to Ukraine by communist leaders under the Soviet Union.

Putin's own actions, however, have served to strengthen Ukrainians' sense of national identity. After Russia seized the Crimean Peninsula and instigated a rebellion in eastern Ukraine in 2014, Ukraine's desire to align itself with the West and join NATO only grew.

Putin recently described his Ukraine concern more specifically. He sketched out a scenario in which Ukraine might use military force to reclaim the Crimean Peninsula or to recapture areas in eastern Ukraine that are now effectively controlled by Russian-backed separatists.

“Imagine that Ukraine becomes a NATO member and launches those military operations,” Putin said. “Should we fight NATO then? Has anyone thought about it?”

Indeed, some in NATO have thought about the prospect of an expanded war with Russia inside Ukraine. It is a reminder of what NATO membership means — an attack on one is an attack on all, which in the theoretical case of Ukraine being attacked by Russia would mean a legal commitment by every NATO member to come to its defense.

What are Ukraine’s prospects for joining NATO?

The prospects are extremely unlikely for the foreseeable future.

Although Ukraine has no membership offer from NATO, it has drawn closer to the alliance over time, starting with the establishment in 1997 of a NATO-Ukraine Charter to further develop cooperation.

NATO heads of government did publicly declare in 2008 that Ukraine, and its fellow former Soviet republic Georgia, “will become members of NATO.” They did not say when or how, but the statement could be seen as explaining Moscow’s concern that Kyiv eventually will join the alliance.

On the other hand, the US and other NATO leaders who signed the 2008 statement about Ukraine and Georgia decided against giving them what is known as a Membership Action Plan — a pathway to eventual membership. Germany and France strongly opposed moving Ukraine toward membership and the broader view within NATO was that Ukraine would have to complete far-reaching government reforms before becoming a candidate for membership.

This seeming contradiction has never been resolved, which means that while NATO's door is open, Ukraine won't fit through anytime soon.

How is Putin pressuring Ukraine?

Moscow says it has no intention of invading Ukraine, yet over the past several months it has assembled a robust array of combat forces along Ukraine’s borders and has implied it will take action of some kind if its demands of Washington and NATO are not met. The Biden administration says Russia is now capable of a wide range of actions, including a full-scale invasion to capture Kyiv.

Putin says NATO has gone too far not only by providing Ukraine with weaponry and military training but also by stationing forces in other Eastern European countries that compromise Russian security.

It’s also true that increases over the past decade in the US and NATO military presence in Eastern Europe were triggered by Russia’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula and its incursion into eastern Ukraine in 2014. Those Russian actions prompted NATO to redouble its focus on collective security. In September 2014, NATO leaders established a new rapid-response force capable of deploying within days, and they reaffirmed pledges to boost their defense spending.



What Trump’s New Weapons Plan for Ukraine Might Mean

US President Donald Trump meets with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, where President Trump announces a deal to send US weapons to Ukraine through NATO, in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, DC, US, July 14, 2025. (Reuters)
US President Donald Trump meets with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, where President Trump announces a deal to send US weapons to Ukraine through NATO, in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, DC, US, July 14, 2025. (Reuters)
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What Trump’s New Weapons Plan for Ukraine Might Mean

US President Donald Trump meets with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, where President Trump announces a deal to send US weapons to Ukraine through NATO, in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, DC, US, July 14, 2025. (Reuters)
US President Donald Trump meets with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, where President Trump announces a deal to send US weapons to Ukraine through NATO, in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, DC, US, July 14, 2025. (Reuters)

President Donald Trump has endorsed a plan to have European allies buy billions of dollars worth of US military equipment that can be transferred to Ukraine as Kyiv looks for way to better defend itself against intensified Russian attacks.

Trump announced the effort Monday during an Oval Office meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who has been working with European countries to coordinate the purchase of US weapons.

The plan is designed to allow the US to funnel more firepower to Ukraine to combat invading Russian forces during their summer military offensive while easing Washington's financial burden.

Increased weapons shipments, combined with possible new penalties Trump has promised if a halt to the fighting isn't reached in 50 days, could push Russian President Vladimir Putin into peace talks that Trump has championed for months - so far with little to show for it.

Here's a look at what Trump promised and what it might mean:

The US plans to sell Patriot missile batteries - systems ideal for shielding territory against incoming missile attacks - and other weapons to European allies that would be transferred to Kyiv.

"We're going to supply weapons to NATO at a large amount," Trump said.

Rutte said Germany, Finland, Canada, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom and Denmark would be among the buyers to supply Ukraine, and noted that "speed is of the essence here."

Later Monday, during a meeting with his administration's faith office and business leaders, Trump said, "They're going to deliver the weapons, and they're going to pay for 100% of the weapons."

The president had earlier teased the announcement, but the details of the transfers - exactly what munitions they would include, the specifics of their delivery and their timing- were unclear.

Other parts of the administration deferred to the White House, where officials said details were still being worked out.

On a call with the other foreign ministers of the Quad grouping - India, Japan and Australia - Secretary of State Marco Rubio "underscored that it remains a priority of President Trump to bring the war to an end through a durable negotiated settlement," State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius met with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon to discuss some details - particularly related to the Patriot batteries - and noted greater defense spending.

"We are determined to assume greater responsibility for Europe's deterrence and defense," said Pistorius, whose government has offered to finance two additional Patriot systems.

In addition to Germany, Greece and Spain are among the NATO members believed to have spare Patriots to send to Ukraine, as long as they are eventually replaced.

US officials said that anything to be supplied to Ukraine in the short term will have to come from existing stockpiles and that it will take several years to replace whatever is sent to Kyiv.

Russia has pounded Ukrainian cities with hundreds of drones and cruise and ballistic missiles that its air defenses are struggling to counter. At the same time, Russia's bigger army is making a new effort to drive back Ukrainian defenders on parts of the 620-mile (1,000-kilometer) front line.

Trump announced last week that the US planned to send more defensive weapons to Ukraine, following a prior pause in some deliveries during a review of US stockpiles.

Still, the president expressed frustration about US resources going to Ukraine, reiterating Monday that "this is not Trump's war. We're here to get it finished and stopped."

During the meeting with Rutte, he also praised European leaders for being willing to take on a larger responsibility for arming Ukraine - a far cry from once criticizing Europe for failing to spend more on defense.

"I have to tell you, Europe has a lot of spirit for this war," Trump said. "When I first got involved, I didn't think they did, but they do."

Trump again vented his frustrations about stalled negotiations to end the war, saying the US will impose steep trade penalties if Moscow doesn't reach a peace deal with Kyiv in the next 50 days.

"Tariffs at about 100% - you'd call them secondary tariffs," Trump said without providing details.

Secondary tariffs would target Russia's trading partners in an effort to isolate Moscow in the global economy - potentially including nations that rely on Russia for oil and natural gas.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick later clarified that Trump was actually referring to economic sanctions, rather than tariffs.

Separately, some Republicans close to Trump, including South Carolina Sen. Lindsay Graham, are promoting a bipartisan sanctions package targeting Russia that is working its way through Congress.

Trump said Monday that "I'm not sure we need it" given his threat for economic consequences if the fighting continues. But, he added, "it could be very useful, we'll have to see."

An emboldened Russia has ramped up military offensives on two fronts in Ukraine, seeking an advantage before the fighting season wanes in the fall.

Trump's 50-day deadline will allow Kremlin forces to further expand into the strategic eastern logistics hub of Pokrovsk, the capture of which would hand them a major battlefield victory and bring them closer to acquiring the entire Donetsk region.

Russia's forces also have been pushing into Ukraine's northern Sumy region, where Putin hopes to create a "buffer zone" to protect Russia's Kursk and Belgorod regions and defend against the possibility of surprise Ukrainian incursions.

Trump long boasted of his friendly relationship with Putin, repeatedly asserting that Russia was more willing than Ukraine to reach a peace deal. At the same time, Trump accused Zelenskyy of prolonging the war and called him a "dictator without elections."

But Russia's relentless onslaught on civilian areas of Ukraine has worn down Trump's patience.

In April, he urged Putin to "STOP!" launching deadly barrages on Kyiv, and the following month he said in a social media post that the Russian leader "has gone absolutely CRAZY!"

Trump said Monday that he remains in frequent contact with Putin but questioned how much those talks have gotten him.

"My conversations with him are very pleasant, and then the missiles go off at night," Trump said.