ISIS Likely to Pick Battle-Hardened Iraqi as Next Leader, Say Officials, Analysts

A suveillance image shows a compound housing the leader of ISIS Abu Ibrahim al-Hashemi al-Quraishi, who had led ISIS since the death in 2019 of its founder Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, in northwest Syria prior to a raid executed by US forces February 2, 2022. Picture taken February 2, 2022. (Reuters)
A suveillance image shows a compound housing the leader of ISIS Abu Ibrahim al-Hashemi al-Quraishi, who had led ISIS since the death in 2019 of its founder Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, in northwest Syria prior to a raid executed by US forces February 2, 2022. Picture taken February 2, 2022. (Reuters)
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ISIS Likely to Pick Battle-Hardened Iraqi as Next Leader, Say Officials, Analysts

A suveillance image shows a compound housing the leader of ISIS Abu Ibrahim al-Hashemi al-Quraishi, who had led ISIS since the death in 2019 of its founder Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, in northwest Syria prior to a raid executed by US forces February 2, 2022. Picture taken February 2, 2022. (Reuters)
A suveillance image shows a compound housing the leader of ISIS Abu Ibrahim al-Hashemi al-Quraishi, who had led ISIS since the death in 2019 of its founder Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, in northwest Syria prior to a raid executed by US forces February 2, 2022. Picture taken February 2, 2022. (Reuters)

The next leader of ISIS is likely to be from a close circle of battle-hardened Iraqi extremists who emerged in the aftermath of the 2003 US invasion, two Iraqi security officials and three independent analysts said.

The group of potential successors to Abu Ibrahim al-Quraishi, who blew himself up during a US operation to capture him in Syria last week, includes one commander whom Washington and Baghdad declared killed last year, the Iraqi officials said.

The death of Quraishi, 45, was another crushing blow to ISIS two years after the violent group lost longtime leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in a similar raid in 2019, Reuters reported.

Quraishi, an Iraqi, never publicly addressed his fighters or followers, avoided electronic communications, and oversaw a move to fighting in small devolved units in response to intense pressure from Iraqi and US-led forces.

But those following ISIS closely expect it to name a successor in coming weeks, as the group which imposed brutal rule over vast swathes of Iraq and Syria from 2014 to 2017 continues a stubborn and deadly insurgency.

Fadhil Abu Rgheef, an Iraqi expert who advises its security services, said there were at least four possible successors.

“These include ... Abu Khadija, whose last known role was Iraq leader for ISIS, Abu Muslim, its leader for Anbar province, and another called Abu Salih, of whom there’s very little information but who was close to Baghdadi and Quraishi,” he said.

“There’s also Abu Yassir al-Issawi, who is suspected to be still alive. He’s valuable to the group as he has long military experience.”

Issawi’s death in an air strike in January 2021 was reported at the time by both Iraqi forces as well as the US-led military coalition fighting ISIS in Iraq and Syria.

But an Iraqi security official confirmed there were strong suspicions Issawi is still alive. “If he’s not dead he’d be a candidate, he’s tried and tested in planning military attacks and has thousands of supporters,” the official said.

The official added that ISIS was likely carrying out a security sweep for potential leaks that led to the death of Quraishi before convening to choose or announce a successor.

Hassan Hassan, editor of New Lines magazine which has published research on Quraishi, said the new leader would be a veteran Iraqi extremist.

“If they choose one in the coming weeks they’ll have to choose someone from among the same circle ... the group that was part of the Anbari group which operated under (the name) ISIS since the early days,” he said.

ISIS emerged from the militants that waged an increasingly sectarian-driven insurgency against US troops and Iraqi forces after 2003.

ISIS in Iraq, also known as al Qaeda in Iraq, was an offshoot of the global al Qaeda organization of Osama Bin Laden and the precursor to ISIS, which took shape in the chaos of Syria’s civil war across the border.

Baghdadi and Quraishi, both members of al Qaeda in Iraq from the start, did time in US detention in the mid-2000s. In contrast, none of the four potential successors to Quraishi had been captured by US forces, one security official and one army colonel told Reuters.

Officials and analysts in various countries agree ISIS is under more pressure than it’s ever been and will never restore its self-styled caliphate. But they are divided on how significant a setback Quraishi’s death is for the group.

Some say the fight against ISIS will suck in the United States and its allies for years to come as it develops into a permanent insurgency with new leaders ready to take the reins.

“In Syria, ISIS units work as a devolved network of individual groups in order to avoid them being targeted. We don’t therefore believe that Quraishi’s death will have an enormous impact,” one of the Iraqi security officials said.

“It’s also become more difficult to follow them because they’ve long stopped using mobile phones for communication.”

Since their territorial defeat in Iraq in 2017 and Syria in 2019, ISIS leaders have found it increasingly easy to move between the two countries, helped by a gap in areas of control between different armed forces, some officials say.

Security and military officials said the 600 km (372 mile) long border with Syria made it very hard for Iraqi forces to prevent militants infiltrating via underground tunnels.

NEW LEADERSHIP STYLE
Lahur Talabany, former counter-terrorism chief for Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan region, said some ISIS leaders can travel on a route across the full expanse of Iraq.

“When you see attacks increasing in a particular area I wouldn’t be surprised if somebody important has been through that region,” he told Reuters. “The caliphate was defeated but ISIS was never eradicated. I don’t believe we managed to finish the job.”

ISIS’ possession of land in Iraq and Syria set it apart from other like-minded groups such as al Qaeda and became central to its mission when it declared a caliphate in 2014, claiming sovereignty over all Muslim lands and peoples.

Fiercely anti-Western, the group also draws on Sunni-Shia tensions, saying Shias were infidels who deserve to be killed.

Abu Rgheef said the new leader could have stronger military credentials than Quraishi, who Iraqi officials say was seen by followers as more of an Islamic legal mind than a military man.

“Attacks and operations will change in character depending on the style of the new leader. The new one might believe in big and intensive attacks, bombs or suicide bombers,” he said.

Despite Quraishi’s low profile and operational secrecy, his killing is likely to affect the group’s fighters, analysts say.

Hassan said Quraishi’s removal would reduce morale. “ISIS is also locked into personalities and who’s most trusted,” he said.

Aaron Zelin, senior fellow at the Washington Institute, said a figurehead is very important to ISIS.

“Whenever a leader of the group is killed, your oath is to the (next) leader, the individual themselves, and not to the group.”



From Sudan to Myanmar… Five Forgotten Conflicts of 2024

Soldiers from the Armed Forces of the DRC dig trenches at a frontline military position above the town of Kibirizi, controlled by the M23 rebellion, North Kivu province, eastern DR Congo, on May 14, 2024 (AFP)
Soldiers from the Armed Forces of the DRC dig trenches at a frontline military position above the town of Kibirizi, controlled by the M23 rebellion, North Kivu province, eastern DR Congo, on May 14, 2024 (AFP)
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From Sudan to Myanmar… Five Forgotten Conflicts of 2024

Soldiers from the Armed Forces of the DRC dig trenches at a frontline military position above the town of Kibirizi, controlled by the M23 rebellion, North Kivu province, eastern DR Congo, on May 14, 2024 (AFP)
Soldiers from the Armed Forces of the DRC dig trenches at a frontline military position above the town of Kibirizi, controlled by the M23 rebellion, North Kivu province, eastern DR Congo, on May 14, 2024 (AFP)

In addition to the two wars in the Mideast and Ukraine-Russia that have dominated world headlines in 2024, several other conflicts are ravaging countries and regions, AFP revealed in a report on Wednesday.

Sudan

War has raged in Sudan since April 2023 between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

The conflict, considered by the UN as one of the world's worst humanitarian crises, has left between 20,000 and 150,000 thousands dead and some 26 million people -- around half of Sudan's population -- facing severe food insecurity.

Also, escalating violence has pushed the humanitarian crisis to unprecedented levels, with displacement now exceeding 11 million people.

Both sides have been accused of war crimes, including targeting civilians and blocking humanitarian aid.

In October the UN alerted the “staggering scale” of sexual violence rampant since the start of the conflict.

Democratic Republic of Congo

The mineral-rich region of eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, home to a string of rival rebel groups, has endured internal and cross-border violence for over 30 years.

Since launching an offensive in 2021, a largely Tutsi militia known as the March 23 movement or M23 -- named after a previous peace agreement -- has seized large swathes of territory.

The resurgence of M23 has intensified a decades-long humanitarian disaster in the region caused by conflicts, epidemics and poverty, notably in the province of North Kivu.

In early August, Angola mediated a fragile truce that stabilized the situation at the front line.

But since the end of October, the M23 has been on the march again, and continues to carry out localized offensives.

Despite violations of the ceasefire, the DRC and Rwanda are maintaining diplomatic dialogue through Angola's mediation.

Early in November, the two central African neighbors launched a committee to monitor ceasefire violations, led by Angola and including representatives from both the DRC and Rwanda.

Sahel

In Africa's volatile Sahel region, Islamist groups, rebel outfits and armed gangs rule the roost.

In Nigeria in 2009 Boko Haram, one of the main militant organizations in the Sahel region, launched an insurgency that left more than 40,000 people dead and displaced two million.

Boko Haram has since spread to neighboring countries in West Africa.

For example, the vast expanse of water and swamps in the Lake Chad region's countless islets serve as hideouts for Boko Haram and its offshoot ISIS in West Africa (ISWAP), who carry out regular attacks on the country's army and civilians.

Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger also face persistent militant attacks, while any opposition to the military-led governments is repressed.

Since January, extremist attacks have caused nearly 7,000 civilian and military deaths in Burkina Faso, more than 1,500 in Niger and more than 3,600 in Mali, according to Acled -- an NGO which collects data on violent conflict.

Haiti

The situation in Haiti, already dire after decades of chronic political instability, escalated further at the end of February when armed groups launched coordinated attacks in the capital, saying they wanted to overthrow then-prime minister Ariel Henry.

Since then, gangs now control 80% of the capital Port-au-Prince and despite a Kenyan-led police support mission, backed by the US and UN, violence has continued to soar.

In November the UN said the verified casualty toll of the gang violence so far this year was 4,544 dead and the real toll, it stressed, “is likely higher still.”

Particularly violent acts target women and girls, and victims have been mutilated with machetes, stoned, decapitated, burned or buried alive.

More than 700,000 people have fled the horror, half of them children, according to the International Organization for Migration.

A Kenyan-led Multinational Security Support Mission for Haiti, backed by the United Nations Security Council and Washington, began deployment this summer.

Myanmar

The Southeast Asian nation has been gripped in a bloody conflict since 2021 when the military ousted the democratically elected government led by Nobel laureate Aung Sang Suu Kyi, who has been detained by the junta since the coup.

A bitter civil war has followed causing the death of more than 5,300 people and the displacement of some 3.3 million, according to the UN.

The military has faced growing resistance from rebel groups across the country.

In recent months, rebels attacked Mandalay, the country's second-largest city, and took control of the key road linking Myanmar with China -- its main trading partner -- and in doing so deprived the junta of a key source of revenue.