Worries over Ukraine Invasion Pummel US Stocks, Lift Oil Prices

File: Both the Dow and S&P finished at new peaks on Friday and also posted their fourth consecutive weekly gains. AFP/Angela Weiss
File: Both the Dow and S&P finished at new peaks on Friday and also posted their fourth consecutive weekly gains. AFP/Angela Weiss
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Worries over Ukraine Invasion Pummel US Stocks, Lift Oil Prices

File: Both the Dow and S&P finished at new peaks on Friday and also posted their fourth consecutive weekly gains. AFP/Angela Weiss
File: Both the Dow and S&P finished at new peaks on Friday and also posted their fourth consecutive weekly gains. AFP/Angela Weiss

Wall Street stocks tumbled and oil prices surged Friday as White House warnings of a possibly imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine reverberated through financial markets.

Markets lurched during a briefing by US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, who said a Russian invasion could "begin at any time," including during the Beijing Winter Olympics, AFP said.

"If a Russian attack on Ukraine proceeds, it is likely to begin with aerial bombing and missile attacks that could obviously kill civilians," Sullivan said. "Any American in Ukraine should leave as soon as possible, and in any event in the next 24 to 48 hours."

Investors had become less worried about an imminent invasion of Ukraine in recent days following Western diplomacy with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

But stocks tumbled after Sullivan's remarks, with the S&P 500 ultimately losing 1.9 percent.

Analysts said the sell-off was likely heightened by the timing just before the weekend, with investors shifting into a "risk-off" mode to reduce their exposure for the two days when there is no trading.

"The Russia-Ukraine tensions have hovered over already shaky investor sentiment," said John Lynch, chief investment officer for Comerica Wealth Management. "Investors have been counting on a diplomatic resolution, but recent developments indicate this may be wishful thinking and therefore, not fully priced into the markets."

Most industrial sectors finished lower on Wall Street following the midday White House announcement.

An exception was energy, with oil giants Chevron and ExxonMobil winning more than two percent as crude prices jumped on worries that stiff sanctions on Russia could prompt the country, a major crude and natural gas exporter, to curtail investment or weaponize their energy assets.

Shares of weapons makers also moved higher, including Lockheed Martin, which gained 2.8 percent and Northrop Grumman, which rose 4.5 percent.

Earlier in Europe, London equities slid after economic data pointed to a December slowdown amid the Omicron variant of Covid-19.

The UK economy grew by a record 7.5 percent last year to rebound from the pandemic crash, but shrank by a modest 0.2 percent in the final month, official data showed.

In the eurozone, Frankfurt and Paris stocks banked lower, mirroring Asia after overnight Wall Street losses.

- Key figures around 2150 GMT -
New York - Dow: DOWN 1.4 percent at 34,738.06 (close)

New York - S&P 500: DOWN 1.9 percent at 4,418.64 (close)

New York - Nasdaq: DOWN 2.8 percent at 13,791.15 (close)

London - FTSE 100: DOWN 0.2 percent at 7,661.02 (close)

Frankfurt - DAX: DOWN 0.4 percent at 15,425.12 (close)

Paris - CAC 40: DOWN 1.3 percent at 7,011.60 (close)

EURO STOXX 50: DOWN 1.0 percent at 4,153.23 (close)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.1 percent at 24,906.66 (close)

Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.7 percent at 3,462.95 (close)

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: Closed for a holiday

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1351 from $1.1428 late Thursday

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3564 from $1.3557

Euro/pound: DOWN at 83.64 pence from 84.29 pence

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 115.48 yen from 116.01 yen

Brent North Sea crude: UP 3.3 percent at $94.44 per barrel

West Texas Intermediate: UP 3.6 percent at $93.10 per barrel



AI Powers UK Economic Growth in Third Quarter

Growth was driven by the services sector, particularly computer programming.  Brook Mitchell / AFP
Growth was driven by the services sector, particularly computer programming. Brook Mitchell / AFP
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AI Powers UK Economic Growth in Third Quarter

Growth was driven by the services sector, particularly computer programming.  Brook Mitchell / AFP
Growth was driven by the services sector, particularly computer programming. Brook Mitchell / AFP

Britain's economy expanded 0.7 percent in the third quarter, official data showed Thursday, as spending on the AI boom helped offset higher energy prices and other disruptions caused by the US-Iran war, AFP reported.

The July-September reading for gross domestic product was an acceleration from 0.5 percent growth in the second quarter, the Office for National Statistics said in a statement.

The third-quarter figure, in line with market expectations, was the fastest quarterly growth rate since the first three months of 2024, the ONS said.

It said the latest growth was driven by strength of the services sector, particularly computer programming, which has helped lift economic output throughout the year.

"Many of the businesses reporting the largest increases in turnover are involved in activities related to artificial intelligence and cloud computing," the ONS said.

GDP grew 0.4 percent in July before stalling in August, then returning to a 0.2 percent expansion in September.

"Growth was unusually concentrated in AI-related sectors," said Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics.

"The latest monthly data suggests the economy is entering into Q4 with more momentum than we expected," she said.

The Bank of England last week lifted its economic growth forecast for this year and next, citing strength in business investment linked to AI-related demand.

The central bank delivered its forecasts as it raised its benchmark interest rate for the first time in more than three years as soaring energy costs push up global inflation.

- 'Resilience' -

Along with Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries, disruptions to energy supplies owing to the US-Iran war have caused record-high diesel prices around the world.

"The Middle East conflict has hit growth worldwide, yet Britain is showing stand-out resilience," finance minister John Healey said in response to Thursday's figures.

However, the Bank of England expects in its central forecast for UK inflation to peak at 4.9 percent in the second quarter of next year.

In its worst-case scenario, where oil prices soar far beyond $100 a barrel, the bank warned that UK inflation risked hitting 6.2 percent in the third quarter of next year from 3.5 percent currently.

Millions of Britons face a jump in energy bills from the start of 2027, even after the Labor government offered some assistance in its annual budget announcement last month.

Oil prices have eased to around $90 a barrel in recent weeks on hopes for diplomatic talks aimed at ending the US-Iran war.

"The economy continues to show resilience but there are fears it will lose momentum just as energy-driven inflation is keeping pressure on interest rates," said Kit Rees, investment strategist at wealth management firm Quilter.


Britain Seeking EU Deal Where Benefits Outweigh Trade-offs, Healey Says

British Finance Minister John Healey (AFP)
British Finance Minister John Healey (AFP)
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Britain Seeking EU Deal Where Benefits Outweigh Trade-offs, Healey Says

British Finance Minister John Healey (AFP)
British Finance Minister John Healey (AFP)

British finance minister John Healey said on Thursday the government would pursue closer cooperation with the ‌European Union ‌at next ‌week's ⁠UK-EU summit in areas ⁠where the benefits to businesses and consumers outweigh the costs.

Asked ⁠by the ‌BBC ‌whether efforts ‌to improve ‌post-Brexit ties risked creating fresh uncertainty, Healey said Britain ‌was seeking agreements on areas including ⁠food ⁠and farming that would reduce red tape, ease costs for businesses and help bring down prices.


Oil Gains after Early Drop as Geopolitical Risks Support Market

Oil prices are set for a sharp weekly decline amid expectations of a de-escalation in the Iran war following election losses suffered by Trump's party (Reuters).
Oil prices are set for a sharp weekly decline amid expectations of a de-escalation in the Iran war following election losses suffered by Trump's party (Reuters).
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Oil Gains after Early Drop as Geopolitical Risks Support Market

Oil prices are set for a sharp weekly decline amid expectations of a de-escalation in the Iran war following election losses suffered by Trump's party (Reuters).
Oil prices are set for a sharp weekly decline amid expectations of a de-escalation in the Iran war following election losses suffered by Trump's party (Reuters).

Oil prices rose on Thursday after recovering from earlier losses, as persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East offset pressure from rising regional crude output.

Brent futures advanced 45 cents, or 0.49%, to $93.21 a barrel by 0732 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 27 cents, or 0.31%, to $86.80, Reuters said.

Both contracts fell more than $1 per barrel in early Asian trading.

"We are ‌currently in ‌a 'no war, no peace' situation which is allowing Middle ‌East ⁠oil production to ⁠recover despite the deadlock in US–Iran negotiations," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Middle East production that has returned after recent disruptions is pressuring crude prices, though persistent geopolitical risks are likely to cap further downside, Hansen said.

Iranian security chief Mohsen Rezaei said in televised remarks Iran will not allow even a single particle of enriched nuclear material to ⁠leave the country and there will be consequences if ‌the US launches new strikes.

Washington has ‌said nuclear issues must be part of any initial negotiations with Iran aimed at ‌ending the eight-month-old war, while US officials downplayed the need for further ‌military strikes.

The comments from Iran and US officials highlighted the obstacles to a broader agreement that could ease tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil shipments.

In the waterway, tankers are still ablaze, oil ‌spills are washing ashore, and drones and missiles have hit infrastructure across the region.

Elsewhere, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators ⁠agreed to a major ⁠prisoner exchange after two days of peace talks in Abu Dhabi that ended on Wednesday, although US mediators said differences remained on other major issues, including territory.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Kyiv hoped to achieve concrete results on resolving the war this year.

US crude stocks rose by 9 million barrels in the latest week, market sources said, citing data from the American Petroleum Institute. Official data from the US Energy Information Administration is due on Thursday, delayed a day because of a US national holiday on Wednesday.