Egypt Says Russian-Ukrainian Tensions Increase Wheat Market Volatility

A wheat farmer in Egypt. (Reuters file photo)
A wheat farmer in Egypt. (Reuters file photo)
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Egypt Says Russian-Ukrainian Tensions Increase Wheat Market Volatility

A wheat farmer in Egypt. (Reuters file photo)
A wheat farmer in Egypt. (Reuters file photo)

Egypt is working on several preventive measures to hedge the volatility of the wheat market amid the current tensions between Russia and Ukraine, the two largest wheat exporters in the world.

Minister of Supply and Internal Trade Ali al-Moselhi warned that the tensions are increasing the uncertainty in the market.

The official Middle East News Agency quoted Moselhi saying that the government has adopted several measures to secure wheat reserves and diversify its import origins.

He stated that the supply season for the strategic crop will start in April, adding that there would be a surplus and the strategic reserve will even last until November.

Egypt's wheat strategic reserve is safe and will suffice for more than five months, assured the minister.

"A finance ministry committee has been formed to study hedging policies, and discussions will be completed at the beginning of next month so we can decide if we should go forward with it or not," he explained.

A potential invasion of Ukraine by neighboring Russia could lead to interruptions to the flow of grain out of the Black Sea region, adding upward pressure on prices.

Russia has repeatedly denied it is planning such an invasion.

Data from two regional traders show that Egypt, one of the world's top wheat importers, bought about 50 percent of its wheat from Russia and about 30 percent from Ukraine last year.

The General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), the state's grains buyer, has diversified wheat sources and recently adopted Latvian wheat as a new import origin in November.

The government is also considering overhauling its decades-old food subsidy program, which provides a daily bread allowance to nearly two-thirds of the population.

According to the Finance Ministry, the program costs the government about $5.5 billion, with higher wheat prices expected to add $763 million to the 2021/2022 budget.

In December, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said Egypt is "no longer isolated from global inflationary pressures," adding that it was time to "revise" the program.

Abbas al-Shenawy, an agriculture ministry official, had previously announced that Egypt planted 3.62 million feddans of wheat for the current 2022 season.

He explained that the cultivated area might increase slightly during the coming period, but will not exceed 3.7 million feddans.

The regular wheat planting season began in mid-November and ended in January.

Egypt imported 5.5 million tons of wheat in 2021, while the total domestic supply amounted to 3.5 million tons.

Last November, the Egyptian cabinet approved a procurement price of 820 Egyptian pounds per ardeb for wheat bought by the government from local farmers ahead of planting for the new season.

The new procurement price at 23.5 percent purity wheat was approved after a complete study by the agriculture and supply ministries, based on global prices and local costs per feddan unit of land.



US Election Weighs on Markets

US Dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration picture taken June 14, 2022. (Reuters)
US Dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration picture taken June 14, 2022. (Reuters)
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US Election Weighs on Markets

US Dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration picture taken June 14, 2022. (Reuters)
US Dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration picture taken June 14, 2022. (Reuters)

The dollar softened and stocks fell on Monday as investors treaded carefully hours before the US presidential election, with a US Federal Reserve interest-rate cut also expected later in the week.

In the US presidential race, Democratic Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump remain virtually tied in opinion polls ahead of Tuesday's vote. It might not be clear who won for days after voting ends.

“Tuesday will shape the direction of the world economy and geopolitics for the next four years,” Deutsche Bank analysts wrote.

They cautioned that “there remains a large degree of uncertainty around both the result, including the very tight House (of Representatives) race, and when we will know it.”

Trump's policies on immigration, tax cuts and tariffs may put upward pressure on inflation, bond yields and the dollar, analysts say, while Harris is seen as the continuity candidate.

Uncertainty over the outcome is one reason markets assume the Federal Reserve will choose to cut rates by a standard 25 basis points on Thursday, rather than repeat its outsized half-point easing.

The Bank of England also meets Thursday and is expected to cut by 25 basis points, while the Riksbank is seen easing by 50 basis points and the Norges Bank is expected to stay on hold.

The Reserve Bank of Australia holds its meeting on Tuesday and again is expected to hold rates steady.

“Based on current data, we see no reason for (the Federal Open Market Committee) to rush through rate cuts,” said analysts at ANZ. “The election and uncertainty over the future fiscal path also support arguments for caution in recalibrating monetary policy.”

The euro extended an early climb to be up 0.5% at $1.0891 and looked set to test resistance around $1.0905. The dollar fell 0.6% on the yen to 152.60. The dollar index eased 0.1% to 103.80.

Dealers said the dip in the dollar might be linked to a poll that showed Harris taking a surprise 3-point lead in Iowa, thanks largely to her popularity with female voters.

“Markets are seemingly scaling back some Trump trades, and we suspect the next two days can see some abnormal swings in USD crosses due to tighter volatility conditions ahead of a closely contested and highly binary US election,” ING FX strategist Francesco Pesole said.

European stocks were flat, while oil prices climbed nearly 3% on Monday on OPEC+'s decision for a month's delay in plans to increase output, while investors also focused on the US presidential election.

British stocks outperformed continental indexes to add 0.5%, helped by the energy sector.

Earlier, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.7%, recovering from its fall to a five-week low on Friday.

Chinese blue-chip stocks gained 1.4%, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.2%.

Wall Street also notched slim gains ahead of Tuesday's US election. Futures had the S&P 500 up 0.2% ahead of Monday’s opening bell, while the Nasdaq and Dow Jones were seen 0.1% higher respectively.

Bonds have rallied on Monday as a result of the latest swing in the polls, with yields on 10-year US treasuries down 10 basis points at 4.28%.