Jordan to Push Ahead with IMF-Backed Reforms

General view of Amman, Jordan. (Reuters file photo)
General view of Amman, Jordan. (Reuters file photo)
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Jordan to Push Ahead with IMF-Backed Reforms

General view of Amman, Jordan. (Reuters file photo)
General view of Amman, Jordan. (Reuters file photo)

Jordan will accelerate the momentum of IMF-backed structural reforms in 2022 to help a nascent recovery gather pace in an economy hard hit by the coronavirus pandemic and regional turmoil.

Jordan’s Finance Minister Mohammed al-Ississ told lawmakers ahead of a parliamentary session that passed the $15 billion 2022 budget that the country could ill afford any delay in reforms.

"The process of reform and dealing with the distortions and imbalances is more pressing and necessary than ever," he said in a speech ahead of a vote on the budget.

The International Monetary Fund said in January after the kingdom completed the third review of an ambitious four-year $1.5 billion program that the country's progress in reforms was helping maintain macroeconomic stability while supporting an emerging recovery.

The top official announced that the return to 2 percent growth last year after a steep 1.5 percent contraction in 2020, the worst in decades from the impact of the pandemic, showed "signs of economic recovery.”

Growth is expected to reach 2.7 percent in 2022, signaling an end to the recession and a return to pre-pandemic levels.

Ississ, who was praised by the IMF for the “sound financial reforms” that closed tax loopholes, expanded the tax base, and achieved the biggest revenue gains in years, said that the public budget deficit decreased by JD453 million to reach 5.4 percent of GDP.

The total in 2021 compared to seven percent in the previous year.

The IMF said the deficit is scheduled to drop to 3.1 percent of the GDP in the 2022 budget.

During a six-day session, several parliamentarians criticized the government for its failure to reduce the public debt, which amounted to JD29 billion, or nearly 91 percent of the GDP.

They called for more government jobs to soak unemployment, which hit record levels of about 24 percent.

Ississ blamed the rise in public debt on increased borrowings over the past decade to cover higher security costs, at a time when the region witnessed unrest with the closure of borders with Syria and Iraq, which were exacerbated by a large influx of refugees.

Debt service would fall in 2022 for the first time in years with cheaper financing that replaced commercial borrowing with soft loans from major donors, the minister said.

He said that Jordan's improved outlook helped maintain stable sovereign ratings at a time when other emerging market ratings were downgraded.



After Trump’s Victory, Arab Demands for Competitive Advantages Due to Regional Tensions

Donald Trump addresses his supporters at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in Florida on Wednesday. (EPA)
Donald Trump addresses his supporters at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in Florida on Wednesday. (EPA)
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After Trump’s Victory, Arab Demands for Competitive Advantages Due to Regional Tensions

Donald Trump addresses his supporters at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in Florida on Wednesday. (EPA)
Donald Trump addresses his supporters at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in Florida on Wednesday. (EPA)

With the election of Donald Trump as US president, the global economy has gained direction for the coming years. Trump’s policies favor corporate tax cuts, increased investment, and expansionary monetary policies. He also promotes local production to boost job creation, which involves imposing significant tariffs on trade partners, particularly in Asia. This approach could trigger a trade war, affecting inflation in both the US and worldwide.

The US economy is already grappling with high prices, slower economic growth, and rising unemployment, alongside a national debt nearing 99% of GDP. This backdrop underscores the importance of economic issues in the recent election.

For the new US administration, domestic concerns will not be the sole priority. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, especially recent Middle Eastern conflicts, will also impact the US economy. To gain regional insights, Asharq Al-Awsat consulted economists from various Arab nations on their expectations and requests from the US president regarding the Middle East.

Priority of Regional Stability

Dr. Mohamed Youssef, an Egyptian economist, emphasized that regional stability is crucial, benefiting the economy and paving the way for resolving complex issues like the Nile Dam dispute affecting Egypt. He highlighted the American role in fostering calm in the region.

Iraqi economist Durgham Mohamed Ali noted that US relations vary across the Middle East; while Lebanon and Yemen remain outside current US alliances, Sudan and Somalia require international aid to rebuild infrastructure.

Competitive Advantage for Arab Countries

Ahmed Moaty, a global markets expert from Egypt, suggested that reduced US tariffs would improve Arab economies’ competitiveness. However, he pointed out the American high debt could motivate the administration to impose tariffs to protect local industries and reduce imports. Ali observed that US tariffs are interest-driven and selective, favoring allies like Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea while being stringent toward BRICS members, such as China, Brazil, and South Africa. He linked tariff policies to regional geopolitics, especially the conflicts involving Israel, Lebanon, Palestine, and Iran, which could influence US economic decisions.

Dr. Mohamed Youssef also argued that easing US-China competition could benefit the global economy, as high tariffs on Chinese goods reduce China’s growth, decreasing demand for key commodities like oil.

Ibrahim Al-Nwaibet, CEO of Saudi Arabia’s Value Capital, predicted that a Republican win could positively impact oil and interest rates, revitalizing the petrochemical and trade finance sectors.

On currency, Moaty noted the strong US dollar pressures emerging markets, especially in the Middle East. He suggested offering US Treasury bonds with higher yields to Arab countries as a counterbalance. Ali added that the dollar’s strength poses challenges for countries heavily reliant on US currency amid global liquidity shortages.

The BRICS Bloc

Ali also mentioned the high levels of US debt, explaining: “In general, the entire world is concerned about rising US debt, slowing growth rates... and is wary of the BRICS alliance, which some Arab countries hope to join. The question remains whether a cold economic war will ensue.”

Youssef also discussed the BRICS, which could play a role in attracting the new US president’s attention to countries joining the alliance. He added: “This may provide new competitive advantages for countries in the region, particularly as countries like Egypt, the UAE, and Iran recently joined BRICS, while Saudi Arabia is still evaluating the benefits of such move.”