Oil Pulls Back on Fading Supply Worries Over Ukraine Crisis

Pump jacks operate at sunset in Midland, Texas, US, February 11, 2019. REUTERS/Nick Oxford
Pump jacks operate at sunset in Midland, Texas, US, February 11, 2019. REUTERS/Nick Oxford
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Oil Pulls Back on Fading Supply Worries Over Ukraine Crisis

Pump jacks operate at sunset in Midland, Texas, US, February 11, 2019. REUTERS/Nick Oxford
Pump jacks operate at sunset in Midland, Texas, US, February 11, 2019. REUTERS/Nick Oxford

Oil prices took a breather on Wednesday after surging to seven-year highs the previous session as it became clear the first wave of US and European sanctions on Russia for sending troops into eastern Ukraine would not disrupt oil supplies.

At the same time, the potential return of more Iranian crude to the market, with Tehran and world powers close to reviving a nuclear agreement, also kept a lid on prices.

Brent crude rose 30 cents, or 0.3%, to $97.14 a barrel at 0442 GMT, after soaring as high as $99.50 on Tuesday, the highest since Sept. 2014.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also gained 30 cents, or 0.3%, to $92.21 a barrel, after hitting $96 on Tuesday.

"The NATO allies are holding back some punitive measures as bargaining chips, which also means the door to diplomacy is still open. The Iran nuclear deal remains a possibility until it is not," said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.

"The two factors will leave crude rangebound and hold Brent back from $100 for the time being," Hari added.

Prices jumped on Tuesday on worries that western sanctions on Russia for sending troops into two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine could hit energy supplies, but the United States made it clear there would be no impact on energy exports.

"The sanctions that are being imposed today as well that could be imposed in the near future are not targeting and will not target oil and gas flows," Reuters quoted a senior US State Department official as telling reporters late on Tuesday.

Sanctions imposed by the United States, the European Union, Britain, Australia, Canada and Japan on Tuesday were focused on Russian banks and elites while Germany halted a major gas pipeline project from Russia in response to one of the worst security crises in Europe in decades.

Further dampening prices was the possible return of more than 1 million barrels per day of crude from Iran, as diplomats said Iran and world powers were on the verge of reaching an agreement to curb Tehran's nuclear program.

The big unknown is how quickly Iran could actually boost its exports, Commonwealth Bank commodities analyst Vivek Dhar said.

Other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, together called OPEC+, have struggled to meet their production targets due to underinvestment in oil infrastructure, and Iran could face the same issue, he said.



US Job Growth Surges in September, Unemployment Rate Falls to 4.1%

A woman enters a store next to a sign advertising job openings at Times Square in New York City, New York, US, August 6, 2021. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo
A woman enters a store next to a sign advertising job openings at Times Square in New York City, New York, US, August 6, 2021. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo
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US Job Growth Surges in September, Unemployment Rate Falls to 4.1%

A woman enters a store next to a sign advertising job openings at Times Square in New York City, New York, US, August 6, 2021. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo
A woman enters a store next to a sign advertising job openings at Times Square in New York City, New York, US, August 6, 2021. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo

US job growth accelerated in September and the unemployment slipped to 4.1%, further reducing the need for the Federal Reserve to maintain large interest rate cuts at its remaining two meetings this year.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 254,000 jobs last month after rising by an upwardly revised 159,000 in August, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its closely watched employment report on Friday.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls rising by 140,000 positions after advancing by a previously reported 142,000 in August.
The initial payrolls count for August has typically been revised higher over the past decade. Estimates for September's job gains ranged from 70,000 to 220,000.
The US labor market slowdown is being driven by tepid hiring against the backdrop of increased labor supply stemming mostly from a rise in immigration. Layoffs have remained low, which is underpinning the economy through solid consumer spending.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% after gaining 0.5% in August. Wages increased 4% year-on-year after climbing 3.9% in August.
The US unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% in August. It has jumped from 3.4% in April 2023, in part boosted by the 16-24 age cohort and rise in temporary layoffs during the annual automobile plant shutdowns in July.
The US Federal Reserve's policy setting committee kicked off its policy easing cycle with an unusually large half-percentage-point rate cut last month and Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized growing concerns over the health of the labor market.
While the labor market has taken a step back, annual benchmark revisions to national accounts data last week showed the economy in a much better shape than previously estimated, with upgrades to growth, income, savings and corporate profits.
This improved economic backdrop was acknowledged by Powell this week when he pushed back against investors' expectations for another half-percentage-point rate cut in November, saying “this is not a committee that feels like it is in a hurry to cut rates quickly.”
The Fed hiked rates by 525 basis points in 2022 and 2023, and delivered its first rate cut since 2020 last month. Its policy rate is currently set in the 4.75%-5.00% band.
Early on Friday, financial markets saw a roughly 71.5% chance of a quarter-point rate reduction in November, CME's FedWatch tool showed. The odds of a 50 basis points cut were around 28.5%.