Oil Pulls Back on Fading Supply Worries Over Ukraine Crisis

Pump jacks operate at sunset in Midland, Texas, US, February 11, 2019. REUTERS/Nick Oxford
Pump jacks operate at sunset in Midland, Texas, US, February 11, 2019. REUTERS/Nick Oxford
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Oil Pulls Back on Fading Supply Worries Over Ukraine Crisis

Pump jacks operate at sunset in Midland, Texas, US, February 11, 2019. REUTERS/Nick Oxford
Pump jacks operate at sunset in Midland, Texas, US, February 11, 2019. REUTERS/Nick Oxford

Oil prices took a breather on Wednesday after surging to seven-year highs the previous session as it became clear the first wave of US and European sanctions on Russia for sending troops into eastern Ukraine would not disrupt oil supplies.

At the same time, the potential return of more Iranian crude to the market, with Tehran and world powers close to reviving a nuclear agreement, also kept a lid on prices.

Brent crude rose 30 cents, or 0.3%, to $97.14 a barrel at 0442 GMT, after soaring as high as $99.50 on Tuesday, the highest since Sept. 2014.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also gained 30 cents, or 0.3%, to $92.21 a barrel, after hitting $96 on Tuesday.

"The NATO allies are holding back some punitive measures as bargaining chips, which also means the door to diplomacy is still open. The Iran nuclear deal remains a possibility until it is not," said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.

"The two factors will leave crude rangebound and hold Brent back from $100 for the time being," Hari added.

Prices jumped on Tuesday on worries that western sanctions on Russia for sending troops into two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine could hit energy supplies, but the United States made it clear there would be no impact on energy exports.

"The sanctions that are being imposed today as well that could be imposed in the near future are not targeting and will not target oil and gas flows," Reuters quoted a senior US State Department official as telling reporters late on Tuesday.

Sanctions imposed by the United States, the European Union, Britain, Australia, Canada and Japan on Tuesday were focused on Russian banks and elites while Germany halted a major gas pipeline project from Russia in response to one of the worst security crises in Europe in decades.

Further dampening prices was the possible return of more than 1 million barrels per day of crude from Iran, as diplomats said Iran and world powers were on the verge of reaching an agreement to curb Tehran's nuclear program.

The big unknown is how quickly Iran could actually boost its exports, Commonwealth Bank commodities analyst Vivek Dhar said.

Other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, together called OPEC+, have struggled to meet their production targets due to underinvestment in oil infrastructure, and Iran could face the same issue, he said.



After Trump’s Victory, Arab Demands for Competitive Advantages Due to Regional Tensions

Donald Trump addresses his supporters at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in Florida on Wednesday. (EPA)
Donald Trump addresses his supporters at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in Florida on Wednesday. (EPA)
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After Trump’s Victory, Arab Demands for Competitive Advantages Due to Regional Tensions

Donald Trump addresses his supporters at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in Florida on Wednesday. (EPA)
Donald Trump addresses his supporters at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in Florida on Wednesday. (EPA)

With the election of Donald Trump as US president, the global economy has gained direction for the coming years. Trump’s policies favor corporate tax cuts, increased investment, and expansionary monetary policies. He also promotes local production to boost job creation, which involves imposing significant tariffs on trade partners, particularly in Asia. This approach could trigger a trade war, affecting inflation in both the US and worldwide.

The US economy is already grappling with high prices, slower economic growth, and rising unemployment, alongside a national debt nearing 99% of GDP. This backdrop underscores the importance of economic issues in the recent election.

For the new US administration, domestic concerns will not be the sole priority. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, especially recent Middle Eastern conflicts, will also impact the US economy. To gain regional insights, Asharq Al-Awsat consulted economists from various Arab nations on their expectations and requests from the US president regarding the Middle East.

Priority of Regional Stability

Dr. Mohamed Youssef, an Egyptian economist, emphasized that regional stability is crucial, benefiting the economy and paving the way for resolving complex issues like the Nile Dam dispute affecting Egypt. He highlighted the American role in fostering calm in the region.

Iraqi economist Durgham Mohamed Ali noted that US relations vary across the Middle East; while Lebanon and Yemen remain outside current US alliances, Sudan and Somalia require international aid to rebuild infrastructure.

Competitive Advantage for Arab Countries

Ahmed Moaty, a global markets expert from Egypt, suggested that reduced US tariffs would improve Arab economies’ competitiveness. However, he pointed out the American high debt could motivate the administration to impose tariffs to protect local industries and reduce imports. Ali observed that US tariffs are interest-driven and selective, favoring allies like Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea while being stringent toward BRICS members, such as China, Brazil, and South Africa. He linked tariff policies to regional geopolitics, especially the conflicts involving Israel, Lebanon, Palestine, and Iran, which could influence US economic decisions.

Dr. Mohamed Youssef also argued that easing US-China competition could benefit the global economy, as high tariffs on Chinese goods reduce China’s growth, decreasing demand for key commodities like oil.

Ibrahim Al-Nwaibet, CEO of Saudi Arabia’s Value Capital, predicted that a Republican win could positively impact oil and interest rates, revitalizing the petrochemical and trade finance sectors.

On currency, Moaty noted the strong US dollar pressures emerging markets, especially in the Middle East. He suggested offering US Treasury bonds with higher yields to Arab countries as a counterbalance. Ali added that the dollar’s strength poses challenges for countries heavily reliant on US currency amid global liquidity shortages.

The BRICS Bloc

Ali also mentioned the high levels of US debt, explaining: “In general, the entire world is concerned about rising US debt, slowing growth rates... and is wary of the BRICS alliance, which some Arab countries hope to join. The question remains whether a cold economic war will ensue.”

Youssef also discussed the BRICS, which could play a role in attracting the new US president’s attention to countries joining the alliance. He added: “This may provide new competitive advantages for countries in the region, particularly as countries like Egypt, the UAE, and Iran recently joined BRICS, while Saudi Arabia is still evaluating the benefits of such move.”