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Turkish Lira Driven to Mid-January Low by Ukraine-Russia Crisis

A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey November 11, 2021. (Reuters)
A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey November 11, 2021. (Reuters)
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Turkish Lira Driven to Mid-January Low by Ukraine-Russia Crisis

A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey November 11, 2021. (Reuters)
A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey November 11, 2021. (Reuters)

The Turkish lira weakened as much as 1.5 percent against the dollar on Tuesday, nearing its weakest level this year, after Russia escalated tensions in eastern Ukraine, posing a risk to Turkey's macroeconomic stability.

The losses came as Russia's parliament approved treaties with two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, opening the way for a Russian troop deployment despite the threat of Western sanctions, including blocking a major new pipeline.

NATO member Turkey faces a tough balancing act in the crisis as it has good ties with both Ukraine and Russia. Ankara has criticized Russia's decision to recognize the independence of the two regions, but opposes sanctions, Reuters reported.

The lira slid as far as 13.9025, suffering its biggest daily losses since early January. It has traded in a narrow range since then as Ankara acted to stabilize the currency. It trimmed its losses to 13.85 by 1325 GMT.

The threat of war between Turkey's Black Sea neighbors Russia and Ukraine could harm the country's already ailing economy after a currency crisis in December.

“A prolonged conflict...could keep energy prices high throughout the year, or may even propel them higher. The energy shock is already advancing through various channels to make life miserable in Turkey,” said Atilla Yesilada, Istanbul-based analyst at GlobalSource Partners.

Any prolonged conflict could also cut tourist flows to Turkey by around $2 billion this summer, assuming Russian and Ukrainian tourist arrivals stay the same as in 2021 or dip a bit, he wrote in a note.

Last year, the lira dropped 44 percent against the US currency, tumbling after the central bank pushed through 500 basis points of unorthodox interest rate cuts from September under pressure from President Tayyip Erdogan.

Costly state interventions in the forex market and a scheme to protect lira deposits against depreciation has bolstered the currency since it touched a record low of 18.4 last year.

The lira slide late last year has in turn triggered a surge in annual inflation to nearly 50 percent for Turkey's import-dependent economy, adding to the concerns regarding energy import costs.

Oil prices rose to their highest since 2014 after Moscow ordered troops into eastern Ukraine, adding to supply concerns that are pushing prices towards $100 a barrel.

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Trump Says He Will Raise US Global Tariff Rate from 10% to 15%

US President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing at the White House, following the Supreme Court's ruling that Trump had exceeded his authority when he imposed tariffs, in Washington, DC, US, February 20, 2026. (Reuters)
US President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing at the White House, following the Supreme Court's ruling that Trump had exceeded his authority when he imposed tariffs, in Washington, DC, US, February 20, 2026. (Reuters)
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Trump Says He Will Raise US Global Tariff Rate from 10% to 15%

US President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing at the White House, following the Supreme Court's ruling that Trump had exceeded his authority when he imposed tariffs, in Washington, DC, US, February 20, 2026. (Reuters)
US President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing at the White House, following the Supreme Court's ruling that Trump had exceeded his authority when he imposed tariffs, in Washington, DC, US, February 20, 2026. (Reuters)

President Donald Trump said on Saturday he will raise temporary tariffs on almost all US imports from 10% to 15%, the maximum level allowed under the law, after the US Supreme Court struck down his previous tariff program as invalid.

Trump had immediately announced a 10% across-the-board tariff on Friday after the court's decision, which ‌found the president ‌had exceeded his authority when ‌he ⁠imposed an array ⁠of higher rates under an economic emergency law.

The new levies are grounded in a separate law, known as Section 122, that allows tariffs up to 15% but requires congressional approval to extend them after 150 days.

In a ⁠social media post on Saturday, ‌Trump said he ‌would use that period to work on issuing other "legally ‌permissible" tariffs. The administration intends to rely ‌on two other statutes that permit import taxes on specific products or countries based on investigations into national security or unfair trade practices.

"I, as President of ‌the United States of America, will be, effective immediately, raising the 10% ⁠Worldwide ⁠Tariff on Countries, many of which have been 'ripping' the US off for decades, without retribution (until I came along!), to the fully allowed, and legally tested, 15% level," he wrote in a Truth Social post.

Trump has shown little sign of backing off his global trade war in the hours since the court's 6-3 decision, attacking individual justices in personal terms and insisting he retained the power to impose tariffs as he sees fit.

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Asian Economies Weigh Impact of Fresh Trump Tariff Moves, Confusion

Shoppers crowd for the upcoming Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations at the Dihua Street market in Taipei, Taiwan, Sunday, Feb. 15, 202. (AP)
Shoppers crowd for the upcoming Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations at the Dihua Street market in Taipei, Taiwan, Sunday, Feb. 15, 202. (AP)
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Asian Economies Weigh Impact of Fresh Trump Tariff Moves, Confusion

Shoppers crowd for the upcoming Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations at the Dihua Street market in Taipei, Taiwan, Sunday, Feb. 15, 202. (AP)
Shoppers crowd for the upcoming Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations at the Dihua Street market in Taipei, Taiwan, Sunday, Feb. 15, 202. (AP)

US trading partners in Asia started weighing fresh uncertainties on Saturday after President Donald Trump vowed to impose a new tariff on imports, hours after the Supreme Court struck down many of the sweeping levies he used to launch a global trade war.

The court's ruling invalidated a number of tariffs that the Trump administration had imposed on Asian export powerhouses from China and South Korea to Japan and Taiwan, the world's largest chip maker and a key player in tech supply chains.

Within hours, Trump said he would impose a new 10% duty on US imports from all countries starting on Tuesday for an initial 150 days under a different law, prompting analysts to warn that more measures could follow, threatening more confusion for businesses and investors.

In Japan, a government spokesman said Tokyo "will carefully examine the content of this ruling and ‌the Trump administration's response ‌to it, and respond appropriately."

China, which is preparing to host Trump in ‌late ⁠March, has yet to ⁠formally comment or launch any counter moves with the country on an extended holiday. But a senior financial official in China-ruled Hong Kong described the US situation as a "fiasco".

Christopher Hui, Hong Kong's secretary for financial services and the treasury, Trump's new levy served to underscore Hong Kong's "unique trade advantages", Hui said.

"This shows the stability of Hong Kong's policies and our certainty ... it shows global investors the importance of predictability," Hui said at a media briefing on Saturday when asked how the new US tariff's would affect the city's economy.

Hong Kong operates as a separate customs territory from mainland China, a ⁠status that has shielded it from direct exposure to US tariffs targeting Chinese goods.

While ‌Washington has imposed duties on mainland exports, Hong Kong-made products have ‌generally faced lower tariff rates, allowing the city to maintain trade flows even as Sino-US tensions escalated.

Before the Supreme Court's ruling, Trump's ‌tariff push had strained Washington's diplomatic relations across Asia, particularly for export-reliant economies integrated into US-bound supply chains.

Friday's ruling ‌concerns only the tariffs launched by Trump on the basis of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, intended for national emergencies.

Trade policy monitor Global Trade Alert estimated that by itself, the ruling cuts the trade-weighted average US tariff almost in half from 15.4% to 8.3%.

For those countries on higher US tariff levels, the change is more dramatic. For China, Brazil and ‌India, it will mean double-digit percentage point cuts, albeit to still-high levels.

In Taiwan, the government said it was monitoring the situation closely, noting that the US government ⁠had yet to determine how ⁠to fully implement its trade deals with many countries.

"While the initial impact on Taiwan appears limited, the government will closely monitor developments and maintain close communication with the US to understand specific implementation details and respond appropriately," a cabinet statement said.

Taiwan has signed two recent deals with the US - one was a Memorandum of Understanding last month that committed Taiwan to invest $250 billion and the second was signed this month to lowering reciprocal tariffs.

Analysts say the Supreme Court's ruling against Trump's more aggressive tariff measures may offer little relief for the global economy. They warned of looming confusion as trading nations brace for moves by Trump to find other means of using levies to circumvent the ruling.

Thailand's Trade Policy and Strategy Office head Nantapong Chiralerspong said the ruling might even benefit its exports as uncertainty drove a fresh round of "front loading", where shippers race to move goods to the US, fearing even higher tariffs.

In corporate disclosures tracked by Reuters, firms across the Asia-Pacific region reported financial hits, supply shifts and withdrawals as levies escalated through 2025 and early 2026.

Business

Brazil, India Eye Critical Minerals Deal as Leaders Meet

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (L) and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are expected to discuss efforts to increase trade links. Ludovic MARIN / AFP/File
Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (L) and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are expected to discuss efforts to increase trade links. Ludovic MARIN / AFP/File
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Brazil, India Eye Critical Minerals Deal as Leaders Meet

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (L) and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are expected to discuss efforts to increase trade links. Ludovic MARIN / AFP/File
Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (L) and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are expected to discuss efforts to increase trade links. Ludovic MARIN / AFP/File

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva are set to meet in New Delhi on Saturday, seeking to boost cooperation on critical minerals and rare earths.

Brazil has the world's second-largest reserves of these elements, which are used in everything from electric vehicles, solar panels and smartphones to jet engines and guided missiles.

India, seeking to cut its dependence on top exporter China, has been expanding domestic production and recycling while scouting for new suppliers.

Lula, heading a delegation of more than a dozen ministers as well as business leaders, arrived in New Delhi on Wednesday for a global summit, reported AFP.

Officials have said that in talks with Modi on Saturday, the two leaders are expected to sign a memorandum on critical minerals and discuss efforts to increase trade links.

The world's most populous nation is already the 10th largest market for Brazilian exports, with bilateral trade topping $15 billion in 2025.

The two countries have set a trade target of $20 billion to be achieved by 2030.

With China holding a near-monopoly on rare earths production, some countries are seeking alternative sources.

Rishabh Jain, an expert with the Delhi-based Council on Energy, Environment and Water think tank, said India's growing cooperation with Brazil on critical minerals complements recent supply chain engagements with the United States, France and the European Union.

While these partnerships grant India access to advanced technologies, finance and high-end processing capabilities, "Global South alliances are critical for securing diversified, on-ground resource access and shaping emerging rules of global trade", Jain told AFP.

- 'Challenges' -

Modi and Lula are also expected to discuss global economic headwinds and strains on multilateral trade systems after both of their countries were hit by US tariffs in 2025, prompting the two leaders to call for stronger cooperation.

Washington has since pledged to roll back duties on Indian goods under a trade deal announced earlier this month.

"Lula and Modi will have the opportunity to exchange views on... the challenges to multilateralism and international trade," said Brazilian diplomat Susan Kleebank, the secretary for Asia and the Pacific.

Brazil is India's biggest partner in Latin America.

Key Brazilian exports to India include sugar, crude oil, vegetable oils, cotton and iron ore.

Demand for iron ore has been driven by rapid infrastructure expansion and industrial growth in India, which is on track to become the world's fourth largest economy.

Brazilian firms are also expanding in the country, with Embraer and Adani Group announcing plans last month to build aircraft in India.

Lula addressed the AI Impact summit in Delhi on Thursday, calling for a multilateral and inclusive global governance framework for artificial intelligence.

He will travel on to South Korea for meetings with President Lee Jae Myung and to attend a business forum.