Ukraine Crisis Deepens US Congressional Fears of an Agreement in Vienna

Rana Abtar - Washington

Deputy Secretary-General of the European External Action Service (EEAS) Enrique Mora and Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani wait for the start of a meeting of the JCPOA Joint Commission in Vienna, Austria December 3, 2021. EU Delegation in Vienna/Handout via REUTERS
Deputy Secretary-General of the European External Action Service (EEAS) Enrique Mora and Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani wait for the start of a meeting of the JCPOA Joint Commission in Vienna, Austria December 3, 2021. EU Delegation in Vienna/Handout via REUTERS
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Ukraine Crisis Deepens US Congressional Fears of an Agreement in Vienna

Deputy Secretary-General of the European External Action Service (EEAS) Enrique Mora and Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani wait for the start of a meeting of the JCPOA Joint Commission in Vienna, Austria December 3, 2021. EU Delegation in Vienna/Handout via REUTERS
Deputy Secretary-General of the European External Action Service (EEAS) Enrique Mora and Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani wait for the start of a meeting of the JCPOA Joint Commission in Vienna, Austria December 3, 2021. EU Delegation in Vienna/Handout via REUTERS

About 200 Republican lawmakers wrote a letter to US President Joe Biden earlier in February urging him to put any nuclear deal reached with Iran to a vote in Congress.

“We will view any agreement reached in Vienna which is not submitted to the US Senate for ratification as a treaty—including any and all secret agreements made with Iran directly or on the sidelines of official talks—as non-binding,” the lawmakers wrote in a letter dated Feb. 16, 2022.

The lawmakers linked the file of negotiations with Iran and the Ukraine crisis, expressing concern that the United States’ dependence on Russia as a main mediator in the Vienna negotiations had weakened the US position with regards to Moscow’s plans to invade Ukraine.

“If your dependency on the Russians to revive the JCPOA [nuclear deal] is weakening our deterrent posture with the Russians in other areas of the world, the American people deserve to know,” they said, addressing Biden.

In this regard, a source in the US Congress told Asharq Al-Awsat that opponents were increasingly concerned that the Biden Administration would exploit the preoccupation with the Ukrainian crisis to conclude a deal with Tehran.

Similarly, the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Sen. Bob Menendez, complained that the Ukraine file had distracted his colleagues from the talks with Iran.

In remarks earlier this month, Menendez said that he was “not comfortable” with the lack of attention on Iran, adding that he was “not sure that [his] colleagues are as fully immersed on the challenges of Iran as we speak, as [he] would like them to be.”

These concerns were echoed by Rep. Sen. Lindsey Graham during his visit to Israel last week.

He said that the Iranians' acquisition of a nuclear weapon has more consequences than the Ukraine-Russia conflict. He added that Russia and Ukraine are of great importance, “but Iran’s acquisition of a nuclear capability will change all the rules of the game.”

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, Jason Brodsky, Policy Director at United Against Nuclear Iran, said that Russia, which used to separate internationally disputed files from efforts to revive the nuclear agreement, might not be able this time to overcome the tension between the negotiating parties, which Iran would exploit to its advantage.

“The invasion of Ukraine will create rifts in Vienna. With the presence of the Russian envoy there, I think that Ukraine will complicate the internal dynamic between the Europeans, the United States and Russia…” he stated.



After Netanyahu Arrest Warrant, Israelis Fear Military Officers’ Prosecution

Israel fears its officers may also be prosecuted after an arrest warrant was issued for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Israeli Government Press Office - AFP)
Israel fears its officers may also be prosecuted after an arrest warrant was issued for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Israeli Government Press Office - AFP)
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After Netanyahu Arrest Warrant, Israelis Fear Military Officers’ Prosecution

Israel fears its officers may also be prosecuted after an arrest warrant was issued for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Israeli Government Press Office - AFP)
Israel fears its officers may also be prosecuted after an arrest warrant was issued for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Israeli Government Press Office - AFP)

Israeli leaders from both the ruling coalition and opposition have strongly reacted to the International Criminal Court’s decision to issue arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on war crimes charges related to Gaza.

While these immediate reactions dominate the news, Israel’s judicial authorities, military courts, and experts are carefully studying the decision, with growing concerns about its broader consequences.

The main concern among Israelis is that the court has determined the actions in Gaza were war crimes against humanity, including starvation, lack of medical care, and mass killings.

While Netanyahu and Gallant are seen as the key figures responsible, many others are involved. These include senior and junior military leaders, as well as soldiers who shared images on social media boasting about their actions against Palestinians.

Any of them could be arrested if complaints are made against them in other countries.

A growing network of global volunteers, including many Israeli Jews, is mobilizing against the war and its atrocities. These individuals have gathered detailed information on the officers involved, such as their identities, passport numbers, and travel plans.

This data is stored online, ready to be used if needed. They plan to use this information to push for the arrest of any officer traveling abroad.

This strategy has been tested three times in the past month. The first was in Belgium, where an Israeli-Belgian dual citizen involved in the Gaza conflict was investigated. Two weeks ago, a similar case occurred in Nicosia with an Israeli holding Cypriot citizenship.

Last week, an Israeli reserve officer was nearly arrested while on his honeymoon in Cyprus. This officer had boasted about his actions in Gaza and posted a photo saying, “We will burn Gaza to the ground.”

A Belgian organization tracked him and sought his arrest. The Israeli Mossad intervened, quickly having him deported before the arrest could happen.

In addition to these risks, Israeli officials are concerned about how the ICC ruling will affect Netanyahu’s leadership.

If the US accepts him, who else will? Which world leader will risk meeting him now? How can Netanyahu lead if he’s isolated internationally?

Experts have suggested that Israel may have to prepare for a future without Netanyahu, predicting the ICC ruling signals the beginning of the end of his leadership.