Oil Tops $110, Equities Sink on Rising Ukraine War Fears

A oil pump is seen at sunset outside Scheibenhard, near Strasbourg, France, October 6, 2017. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann/File Photo
A oil pump is seen at sunset outside Scheibenhard, near Strasbourg, France, October 6, 2017. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann/File Photo
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Oil Tops $110, Equities Sink on Rising Ukraine War Fears

A oil pump is seen at sunset outside Scheibenhard, near Strasbourg, France, October 6, 2017. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann/File Photo
A oil pump is seen at sunset outside Scheibenhard, near Strasbourg, France, October 6, 2017. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann/File Photo

Crude surged past $110 a barrel Wednesday and equities sank with investors growing increasingly fearful about the Ukraine war's impact on global energy supplies and the economic recovery.

Vladimir Putin's invasion of his neighbor has sent world markets into a spiral over the past week, further fraying nerves on trading floors caused by runaway inflation and tighter central bank monetary policies, AFP reported.

The crisis has seen numerous countries hammer Moscow with a series of wide-ranging sanctions that have isolated Russia and threaten to crash its economy.

The measures have injected a huge amount of uncertainty into markets with supplies of crucial commodities including metals and grains soaring. The price of global staple wheat is sitting at a 14-year high -- having risen 30 percent in the past month.

But the main source of unease on trading floors is crude, which has rocketed since Russia began preparing to invade. On Wednesday Brent topped $110 for the first time since 2014, while WTI moved closer to that figure.

Incoming sanctions have fueled worries that exports will be cut off from Russia, the world's third-biggest producer of the commodity.

The conflict in eastern Europe comes with prices already elevated owing to tight supplies and a strong recovery in global demand as economies reopen from pandemic-induced lockdowns.

Traders will be keeping a close eye on a meeting of OPEC and other major producers, including Russia, later in the day where they will discuss whether to ramp up output to temper the price rises, which are helping fan inflation.

In his State of the Union address, President Joe Biden said the United States would join a 30-country deal to release 60 million barrels to help temper the surge in prices, though analysts have warned such moves would likely only have a limited impact.

The oil price surge has compounded fears about inflation as it sits at a 40-year high in the United States and hurts Americans in the pocket even as the economy rebounds from the pandemic shock.

However, the Ukraine crisis has given the Fed another headache as it is forced to rethink its plans to hike interest rates to get consumer prices under control.

It had been widely expected to lift this month and then up to seven times more before the end of the year, but commentators say it will likely tone down its hawkishness for fear of damaging the recovery.

"The supply chain issues and inflationary pressures will be top of mind for many investors globally," Andy McCormick at T. Rowe Price said.

"These things will almost certainly complicate the already difficult task that central banks were facing trying to battle inflation."

And Uma Pattarkine, of CenterSquare Investment Management, told Bloomberg Television: "The market was looking at anywhere up to seven rate hikes this year -- I think it will be closer to maybe the three or four we were anticipating at the very beginning of this conversation."

Fed boss Jerome Powell's two days of congressional testimony will be closely watched this week for an idea about the bank's thinking.

Wall Street and European markets tumbled Tuesday and the losses largely flowed through to Asia, which had enjoyed two days of relative calm though the selling was not as severe.

Tokyo led losses, falling 1.9 percent, while Hong Kong, Shanghai, Singapore, Taipei, Manila and Wellington also dropped. However, Sydney, Seoul, Jakarta and Bangkok eked out marginal gains.

- Key figures around 0300 GMT -
Brent North Sea crude: UP 5.6 percent at $110.87 per barrel

West Texas Intermediate: UP 5.7 percent at $109.22 per barrel

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.9 percent at 26,341.95 (break)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.9 percent at 22,556.91

Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.3 percent at 3,479.16

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1124 from $1.1126 late Tuesday

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3320 from $1.3326

Euro/pound: UP at 83.50 pence from 83.46 pence

Dollar/yen: UP at 115.00 yen from 114.90 yen

New York - Dow: DOWN 1.8 percent 33,294.95 (close)

London - FTSE 100: DOWN 1.7 percent at 7,330.20 (close)



Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
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Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)

Iraq produces more than 5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), Oil Minister Basim Mohammed told state news agency INA on Saturday.

According to Reuters, Iraq is pushing for a higher OPEC production quota as the economic fallout from the Iran war and new investment by oil majors increase pressure on Baghdad to boost output, potentially putting it at odds with the producer group.

The conflict has hit Iraq particularly hard, forcing major export cuts and depriving the state of oil revenue, which accounted for 88% of government income last year.


IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
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IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)

Central bankers around the world would need to consider any slowdown in AI-driven growth as they assess steps in their fight against inflation, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Friday.

Georgieva said concerns about dependence on the AI investment boom and high valuations were impacting markets around the world.

"Things are going up and down, and this is likely to continue," she told an audience at IMF headquarters in Washington, adding that the volatility would complicate the job of central banks at a time when risks to price stability had been growing.

A steep rout in technology stocks on Thursday rippled through markets on fears that ⁠the Democrats' victory ⁠in the US midterm elections would increase regulatory scrutiny of AI and slow the data center build-out, sending investors to the safety of bonds.

The political jitters are hitting an AI trade already on shaky footing due to worry about return on massive spending on AI-related infrastructure, with the meltdown spurring margin calls and spooking retail investors and hedge ⁠funds alike.

Georgieva said the AI investment boom was lifting growth in some countries, helping to offset a negative oil-supply shock triggered by the war in the Middle East, but it was also adding to inflationary pressures and financial stability concerns.

The IMF last month flagged significant growth and financial stability risks from a potential ending of the AI investment boom, among other factors, including a prolonged Middle East war. At the time, it warned that a steep drop in AI investment could lead to a sharp fall in asset prices, ultimately cutting global GDP ⁠by 1.1% ⁠by 2028, including a 1.8% drop in US output.

Georgieva did not repeat the downside forecast on Friday, but acknowledged the recent market volatility.

"Should there be a slowdown in the AI-driven growth impulse, it would need to be factored in as central banks assess the necessary steps in the fight against stubborn inflation," she said.

Democrats are planning to unleash a flood of new legislation targeting artificial intelligence systems and data-center development when they take control of the US Congress in January, Reuters reported on Friday, citing congressional aides and advocates.

That would mark a sharp shift from the Republican-led Congress, where lawmakers largely focused on promoting AI development and declined to pass legislation restricting the technology.


World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
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World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)

World food prices edged lower in October as weaker import demand contributed to monthly declines in cereal, dairy and meat prices, but were still nearly 6% higher than a year earlier, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said on Friday.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices for a basket of food commodities, ‌averaged 133.9 points ‌in October, down from a revised ‌135.6 ⁠in September.

The index ⁠was 5.9% higher than a year earlier, but remained 16.4% below its March 2022 peak.

FAO's cereal price index fell 4.5% from September and was 12.6% lower than a year ago, as wheat and maize quotations declined. Wheat prices eased on weak import demand ⁠and improved production prospects, especially in Argentina.

"Expectations of ‌easing constraints on Black ‌Sea export flows added to the downward pressure on prices, ‌although continued disruptions to Black Sea logistics limited the decline," ‌FAO said in a statement.

Maize prices also eased after reaching a three-year high in September, pressured by the US harvest, expectations of ample supplies in South America and renewed ‌prospects of easing tensions in the Black Sea region.

Vegetable oil prices edged up 0.3%, ⁠as ⁠higher soybean and sunflower oil prices more than offset a fall in rapeseed oil prices.

Sugar prices rose 6.6%, their fourth straight monthly increase, to the highest level since December 2024, after rainfall disrupted harvesting in Brazil. They were now 28.8% above a year ago.

The dairy index fell 1.1%, as lower butter and cheese prices linked to ample supplies and subdued demand outweighed gains in milk powder.

The meat index declined 1.2%, while still slightly above its year-earlier level, as ovine and bovine meat prices fell.