Inflation in 19 Nations Using Euro Sets Record for 4th Month

FILE - People fill up the shopping streets in Cologne, Germany, Wednesday, Nov. 17, 2021.(AP Photo/Martin Meissner, File)
FILE - People fill up the shopping streets in Cologne, Germany, Wednesday, Nov. 17, 2021.(AP Photo/Martin Meissner, File)
TT

Inflation in 19 Nations Using Euro Sets Record for 4th Month

FILE - People fill up the shopping streets in Cologne, Germany, Wednesday, Nov. 17, 2021.(AP Photo/Martin Meissner, File)
FILE - People fill up the shopping streets in Cologne, Germany, Wednesday, Nov. 17, 2021.(AP Photo/Martin Meissner, File)

Surging energy costs have driven inflation in Europe to another record high, raising questions about when the central bank should step in to ease the pain to people's wallets while Russia's invasion of Ukraine rattles the global economy.

Consumer prices in the 19 countries that use the euro currency increased by an annual rate of 5.8% in February, the European Union statistics agency, Eurostat, reported Wednesday.

The inflation reading smashed the record of 5.1% set last month — the fourth straight month it has hit an all-time peak — to reach the highest level since recordkeeping for the euro started in 1997. In comparison, US consumer prices rose 7.5% from a year earlier, the biggest jump in four decades, The Associated Press said.

The latest numbers underscore continuing pain for the continent's consumers and pile more pressure on the European Central Bank as it grapples with a decision on when to raise interest rates to combat high prices.

Inflation in Europe, as in other major economies, has been fueled by surging energy prices, and the problem will be complicated by Russia's war in Ukraine.

Russia, a major oil and gas producer, has been hit with sanctions and export restrictions that have raised worries that supplies could be cut off, pushing crude prices above $110 a barrel. Energy prices had already been rising before the war as supplies shrank because of increased demand from economies recovering from the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Before the conflict erupted, the head of the European Central Bank had said record inflation could linger for “longer than expected” and appeared to open the door at least a crack for an interest rate increase this year. But that is now in question.

“For the European Central Bank, the war does mean a rethink of monetary policy,” Bert Colijn, senior eurozone economist at ING Bank, said in a report.

The main risk now facing policymakers is whether quicker tightening will hurt an economy already under pressure, he said.

“As the situation regarding Russia and Ukraine changes so rapidly at the moment and no one can predict what the actual economic impact will be, expect the ECB to refrain from big commitments around its policy for the coming year," Colijn said.

Energy costs rose faster last month, up by 31.7% compared with 28.8% in January, Eurostat said. In contrast, other categories saw smaller but still notable gains. Food, alcohol and tobacco costs rose 4.1%, goods costs rose 3% and service prices rose 2.5%.



OPEC Again Cuts 2024, 2025 Oil Demand Growth Forecasts

The OPEC logo. Reuters
The OPEC logo. Reuters
TT

OPEC Again Cuts 2024, 2025 Oil Demand Growth Forecasts

The OPEC logo. Reuters
The OPEC logo. Reuters

OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth this year and next on Tuesday, highlighting weakness in China, India and other regions, marking the producer group's fourth consecutive downward revision in the 2024 outlook.

The weaker outlook highlights the challenge facing OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, which earlier this month postponed a plan to start raising output in December against a backdrop of falling prices.

In a monthly report on Tuesday, OPEC said world oil demand would rise by 1.82 million barrels per day in 2024, down from growth of 1.93 million bpd forecast last month. Until August, OPEC had kept the outlook unchanged since its first forecast in July 2023.

In the report, OPEC also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.54 million bpd from 1.64 million bpd, Reuters.

China accounted for the bulk of the 2024 downgrade. OPEC trimmed its Chinese growth forecast to 450,000 bpd from 580,000 bpd and said diesel use in September fell year-on-year for a seventh consecutive month.

"Diesel has been under pressure from a slowdown in construction amid weak manufacturing activity, combined with the ongoing deployment of LNG-fuelled trucks," OPEC said with reference to China.

Oil pared gains after the report was issued, with Brent crude trading below $73 a barrel.

Forecasts on the strength of demand growth in 2024 vary widely, partly due to differences over demand from China and the pace of the world's switch to cleaner fuels.

OPEC is still at the top of industry estimates and has a long way to go to match the International Energy Agency's far lower view.

The IEA, which represents industrialised countries, sees demand growth of 860,000 bpd in 2024. The agency is scheduled to update its figures on Thursday.

- OUTPUT RISES

OPEC+ has implemented a series of output cuts since late 2022 to support prices, most of which are in place until the end of 2025.

The group was to start unwinding the most recent layer of cuts of 2.2 million bpd from December but said on Nov. 3 it will delay the plan for a month, as weak demand and rising supply outside the group maintain downward pressure on the market.

OPEC's output is also rising, the report showed, with Libyan production rebounding after being cut by unrest. OPEC+ pumped 40.34 million bpd in October, up 215,000 bpd from September. Iraq cut output to 4.07 million bpd, closer to its 4 million bpd quota.

As well as Iraq, OPEC has named Russia and Kazakhstan as among the OPEC+ countries which pumped above quotas.

Russia's output edged up in October by 9,000 bpd to about 9.01 million bpd, OPEC said, slightly above its quota.