Ukraine War: A New Battlefront for Syrian Mercenaries

Syrian and Russian soldiers in Karm al-Tarif, east of Aleppo, in the north of the country on December 4, 2016 (AP)
Syrian and Russian soldiers in Karm al-Tarif, east of Aleppo, in the north of the country on December 4, 2016 (AP)
TT
20

Ukraine War: A New Battlefront for Syrian Mercenaries

Syrian and Russian soldiers in Karm al-Tarif, east of Aleppo, in the north of the country on December 4, 2016 (AP)
Syrian and Russian soldiers in Karm al-Tarif, east of Aleppo, in the north of the country on December 4, 2016 (AP)

Russia’s war against Ukraine has produced a new battlefront for Syrian youth seeking to escape “hell” in their country and find ways to resolve their living, security, and economic crises. Warlords will want to profit off the conflict the way they did in other wars in Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh.

With Russian and Turkish sponsorship, Syrian mercenaries have fought in wars abroad.

Mediators in Damascus and other government-run areas in Syria have started signing contracts with Syrian youths willing to fight alongside the Russian army in Ukraine.

The new list of conscripts includes around 23,000 Syrians who had fought in militia formations alongside the Syrian government forces. These fighters once went to battle under the banners of the Al-Bustan Association and the National Defense Forces (NDF).

The military wing of Al-Bustan Association had belonged to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s maternal cousin, Rami Makhlouf, but was later disbanded and taken over by Damascus.

Meanwhile, the NDF was co-founded with Iran in 2012. It had lost traction on the battlefield after the Russian intervention in Syria in 2015.

Saturday marks two years passing since Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, signed the Idlib truce in Syria, stabilizing contact lines in the Levantine country’s north and northwest.

Moreover, Russian-US agreements dating back to mid-2017 had marked “borders” between government-run areas and regions east of the Euphrates river.

During a meeting at the Russian-operated Hmeimim airbase in western Syria and before Russia waging its attack on Ukraine, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu had told Assad to wait for an all-out attack against Idlib, because Moscow will be busy with Ukraine and does not want to anger Ankara at present.

As the 11th anniversary of the Syrian opposition protests approaches, it is worth noting that two whole years had passed without any significant change in the “borders” of the microstates that had formed in Syria.

In Syria, the economic crisis and suffering have been exacerbated, leaving 90% of the population in poverty. At least 12.4 million Syrians, or 60% of the population, are food insecure.

The Syrian pound has also witnessed a sharp decline in its value, dropping from 46 pounds to 3,500 pounds per dollar, at a time when food prices are 33 times higher than they were during the pre-war period.

An estimated 14 million people need assistance inside the country, and more than five million people lack access to freshwater.

Russia’s war in Ukraine has deepened the Syrians’ crises, as the two warring countries constitute a significant source of food and livelihood supplies, especially bread and energy.

But this provided additional reasons for “investing in the suffering of the people,” as warlords in Damascus and other government-run areas were active in distributing draft contracts to young people.

The contract promises $7,000 so long that the recruit serves seven consecutive months in protecting facilities in Ukraine. The contract’s first condition is that draftees do not return to Syria during the seven months.

The second condition is that the Syrian government has nothing to do with these contracts.

If a recruit is killed, they are not eligible for the national “Martyrs’ Fund” in Syria and their families won’t enjoy any privileges.

However, young volunteers may get justifications to postpone their mandatory military service, which was one of the reasons for the emigration of many young Syrians.

Instead of fighting each other, Syrian youth are now fighting wars abroad.

Back when Russia and Turkey transferred thousands of them to “protect oil installations” in Libya or Nagorno-Karabakh the mercenary’s contract was for six months, while in Ukraine it will last for seven months.

This indicates that the Russian Hmeimim air base, the main umbrella for the recruitment process, has a conviction that the Ukrainian war will last for months or years, not days.

Damascus has clearly sided with Moscow politically. It issued supportive official statements, backed the recognition of the “independence of the republics” of eastern Ukraine, and voted alongside Cuba, Eritrea, North Korea and Russia in the United Nations General Assembly against a Western condemnation statement that received the support of 141 countries.

Since the outbreak of the attack against Ukraine, contacts between Damascus and Tehran also intensified.

The Director of the Syrian National Security Office, Major General Ali Mamlouk, met his Iranian counterpart, Ali Shamkhani, and President Ibrahim Raisi to coordinate against “US moves to recruit fighters from the east of the Euphrates.” This came amid reports that other Syrian mercenaries are ready to fight on Ukraine’s behalf.

But most likely, the Syrian-Iranian coordination aims to have Iran “fill the void” if Russia is too preoccupied with Ukraine.

For its part, Russia prepared for the potential eventuality of its involvement in Ukraine by signing a military agreement with Belarus to send military forces with “humanitarian missions” to Syria and depending on Iran to provide economic, oil and food aid to the war-torn country.

Damascus, an ally of both Moscow and Tehran, will likely inch closer to Iran if a nuclear deal is signed in Vienna. A deal would secure Iran’s ability to economically help Syria while Russia is busy with its new adventure in Ukraine.

Even though the past months had witnessed the balance in Syria tilting in favor of Russia, as Moscow succeeded in the acquisition of interests that Tehran sought to control in the country, including the port of Latakia, the coming days may witness a swing in the balance of Iran.

However, Russia continues to green light Israel’s attacks against Iranian interests to prevent Tehran from “strategic positioning”, especially in southern Syria.



Israeli Attack Exposed Iran's Military 'Vulnerability', Say Analysts

 A building stands damaged in the aftermath of Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 13, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
A building stands damaged in the aftermath of Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 13, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
TT
20

Israeli Attack Exposed Iran's Military 'Vulnerability', Say Analysts

 A building stands damaged in the aftermath of Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 13, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
A building stands damaged in the aftermath of Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 13, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters

Israel's strikes on archfoe on Iran Friday exposed severe weaknesses for Tehran that have hampered its ability to respond militarily, analysts said.

Israel said it hit 100 targets including Iranian nuclear and military sites in the attacks, killing senior figures, among them the armed forces' chief and top nuclear scientists.

Supreme leader Ali Khamenei warned Israel it faces a "bitter and painful" fate over the attacks, but analysts say the country's options are limited.

"This is an intelligence defeat of existential proportions for Iran," said Ali Fathollah-Nejad, director of the Berlin-based Center for Middle East and Global Order (CMEG) think tank.

"It exposes the vital vulnerability of the regime's military and security apparatus and its key infrastructures, including nuclear, as well as its top political and military leadership," he told AFP.

"All this is meant, inter alia, to cripple Tehran's command and counter-strike capacities."

The United States and other Western countries, along with Israel, accuse Iran of seeking a nuclear weapon.

Tehran denies that, but has gradually broken away from its commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal it struck with world powers, after the United States pulled out of it.

The landmark accord provided Iran sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its atomic program, but it fell apart after President Donald Trump halted US participation in 2018, during his first term.

Western nations in recent days accused Tehran of deliberately escalating its nuclear program, despite several rounds of US-Iran talks for a new accord.

Iran's Atomic Energy Organization said Thursday it would "significantly" increase production of enriched uranium, after the UN's nuclear watchdog found Tehran in breach of its obligations.

Israel has previously carried out attacks in Iran, including against military targets in October last year.

But Friday's attacks were unprecedented.

"The Israel campaign is sweeping in scope and sophistication," said Ali Vaez, of the International Crisis Group.

"We may still only be in the early stages of a prolonged operation that continues to expand, disrupting Iran's ability to either formulate or execute a response."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned his country's military operation would "continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat".

Friday's strikes killed Iran's highest-ranking military officer, armed forces chief of staff Mohammad Bagheri, and the head of the powerful Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami, Iranian media reported.

A senior advisor to Khamenei was also wounded, state television said.

Clement Therme, of the Sorbonne University, said that "to retaliate, the regime seems to be in a bind".

"Either it targets US bases in the region and jeopardizes its future, or it targets Israel, but we see that its military capabilities are limited," he said.

The Israeli military said Iran launched around 100 drones against it, but its air defenses intercepted "most" of them outside Israeli territory.

Israel, which relies on US diplomatic and military support, carried out the attack despite Trump's public urging for it to give time for diplomacy.

Trump's Middle East pointman Steve Witkoff had been set to hold a sixth round of talks with Iran on Sunday in Oman.

A Western diplomat earlier this year described Iran's economy as "cataclysmic", saying the country had "a gigantic need for the lifting of sanctions, reforms, a cleanup of the banking system, foreign investments".

Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said the strikes were "designed to kill President Trump's chances of striking a deal to contain the Iranian nuclear program".

"It is highly unlikely that in these conditions, Iran will proceed with the Omani-mediated talks scheduled for Sunday," she added.

But, after the strikes, a US official said Washington still hoped the Sunday talks would go ahead.

Trump urged Iran to "make a deal, before there is nothing left", warning that otherwise there will be more "death and destruction".

Vaez warned the strategy may not work.

"Rather than prompt Iranian concessions it could also lead to a doubling down by Tehran," he said.

"Setbacks could lead Iran to reconstitute their operations with a more determined effort to obtain a nuclear deterrent."