The Russian invasion of Ukraine appears to have stalled. Launched on the 24th of February, the Russian attack seems to have been stopped by a fierce Ukrainian resistance. Have the Russians underestimated the Ukrainians? Where do their plans of attack go wrong? What role did the advanced weapons provided by the West to Ukraine, play in stopping the invasion?
To explain the current situation in Ukraine, Asharq Al-Awsat has spoken with Philip Ingram MBE, a former British Army Intelligence Officer who now writes on security and intelligence and runs his own media company, Grey Hare Media. He talks about the front lines in Ukraine, gives his opinion on the state of the Russian army, as well as the backing and military assistance given by Western countries to the Ukrainian government. He expresses his fear that the Russians have already started their 'usual' campaign of bombing cities into submission.
Following is Q & A with colonel Ingram:
-The Russian invasion seems to have stalled. What went horribly wrong with the Russian plans, in your opinion?
A number of things have gone wrong with the Russian plan in my opinion, firstly Putin has underestimated the resolve and capability of the Ukrainian defenders and the effectiveness of their defenses, enhanced with modern weapon systems provided by many western countries. His intelligence has failed to tell him that the Ukrainians did not want Russian intervention!
Second, the has overestimated the abilities of his own military capability. His equipment is not proving as reliable as it should be, his logistic support is woefully inadequate as seems to be the routine maintenance and care for his complex equipment’s, the command and control of the Russian operations at every level seems to be poor, prosecuting all arms combined operations like this is a very complex task and it is clear his commanders are just not up to it. All of this is made worse by his people, they lack the resolve, motivation and drive that would come from a professional well motivated military; it seems they don’t believe in the operation.
Putin has failed to gain air superiority and with that the ability to maneuver his attacking forces freely and stop the Ukrainians maneuver their defending forces. This is a fundamental and very basic error.
Thirdly – Putin has underestimated the resolve of the international community and its ability to come together with one voice to hurt him Politically, Diplomatically, and economically and its willingness to supply deadly military support in the form of modern weapons, to the Ukrainians.
-Videos coming back from battles show Russian tanks, BMP’s and other military equipment reduced to nothing more than junk metal by Ukrainian anti-tank rockets. We have also seen the shooting down of many Russian aircrafts and helicopters. What do you think the Ukrainians are using to inflict such devastation against the attacking forces? Do you think the weapons supplied by the UK and the US (among others) have been helpful in repulsing the attackers?
The Ukrainians are using a variety of tactics to inflict damage on the attacking Russian forces, they range from conventional tank on tank defense to effective counter battery fire to small mobile anti-tank and anti-aircraft teams. Weapons supplied by various EU countries as well as those from the UK and US have proved to be extremely effective. Before the Russian invasion, the UK has supplied thousands of NLAW anti-tank missiles and training teams to ensure the Ukrainians knew how to use them effectively. They have proven themselves time and time again as more than a match for Russian Armor. They also have anti helicopter capability.
-The Russians seem to be concentrating their efforts on three fronts: 1- spreading out from Crimea east and west, 2- trying to advance west from Donetsk and Luhansk, and 3- trying to encircle Kiev from west and east. What is you reading of the current situation on these three main fronts, and what do you think the Russians aim would be next?
Of these three main fronts it is clear that the Russian stated Main Effort was the Kyiv focused one as both Putin and Lavrov have publicly talked about removing the current Ukrainian government. That main effort has failed! The secondary axis I believe was linking Crimea via a land bridge to the disputed Donbas Region and that is going better for the Russians, but they are still making very slow progress and are getting bogged down frequently. The final advance West from Donetsk and Luhansk is an effort to capture the whole of Eastern Ukraine and then threaten another axis towards Kyiv and further West – I am surprised at the lack of manoeuvre there has been to capture key terrain such as bridges, airfields and the like.
-Do you fear the Russians tactic would be to bomb cities into submission, the same way they did in Aleppo, Syria and Grozny, Chechenia?
Russia on the ground has lost the initiative and in military terms become fixed. Putin’s commanders need to wrestle this back and their historical tactic for trying to do so is to surround opposing forces and attempt to bombard them to submission even if that means civilians and cities are targeted in the process. I fear this is what is starting to happen.
-We have been seeing Chechen units leading the advance towards Kiev. What do you think is the role of the Chechens in the current plan to seize the Ukrainian capital?
The use of Chechen and other ‘elite’ units with a fierce reputation is as much part of the information war, as it is the actual fighting capability. It is aimed as spreading fear amongst the local defenders and local population.
