US View of Putin: Angry, Frustrated, Likely to Escalate War

Russian President Vladimir Putin. (AP)
Russian President Vladimir Putin. (AP)
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US View of Putin: Angry, Frustrated, Likely to Escalate War

Russian President Vladimir Putin. (AP)
Russian President Vladimir Putin. (AP)

More than two weeks into a war he expected to dominate in two days, Vladimir Putin is projecting anger, frustration at his military’s failures, and a willingness to cause even more violence and destruction in Ukraine, in the assessment of US intelligence officials.

Officials in recent days have publicly said they're worried the Russian president will escalate the conflict to try to break Ukraine's resistance. Russia still holds overwhelming military advantages and can bombard the country for weeks more. And while the rest of the world reacts to horrific images of the war he started, Putin remains insulated from domestic pressure by what CIA Director William Burns called a “propaganda bubble.”

Putin's mindset — as tough as it is to determine from afar — is critical for the West to understand as it provides more military aid to Ukraine and also prevent Putin from directly taking on NATO countries or possibly reaching for the nuclear button. Intelligence officials over two days of testimony before Congress last week openly voiced concerns about what Putin might do. And those concerns increasingly shape discussions about what US policymakers are willing to do for Ukraine.

Over two decades, Putin has achieved total dominance of Russia's government and security services, ruling with a tiny inner circle, marginalizing dissent, and jailing or killing his opposition. He has long criticized the breakup of the Soviet Union, dismissed Ukraine's claims to sovereignty, and mused about nuclear war ending with Russians as “martyrs.” Burns told lawmakers that he believed Putin was “stewing in a combustible combination of grievance and ambition for many years.”

Putin had expected to seize Kyiv in two days, Burns said. Instead, his military has failed to take control of major cities and lost several thousand soldiers already. The West has imposed sanctions and other measures that have crippled the Russian economy and diminished living standards for oligarchs and ordinary citizens alike. Much of the foreign currency Russia had accumulated as a bulwark against sanctions is now frozen in banks abroad.

Burns is a former US ambassador to Moscow who has met with Putin many times. He told lawmakers in response to a question about the Russian president's mental state that he did not believe Putin was crazy.

“I think Putin is angry and frustrated right now,” he said. “He’s likely to double down and try to grind down the Ukrainian military with no regard for civilian casualties.”

Russia's recent unsupported claims that the US is helping Ukraine develop chemical or biological weapons suggest that Putin may himself be prepared to deploy those weapons in a “false flag” operation, Burns said.

There's no apparent path to ending the war. It is nearly inconceivable that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has won admiration around the world for leading his country's resistance, would suddenly recognize Russia's annexation of Crimea or support granting new autonomy to Russian-friendly parts of eastern Ukraine. And even if he captures Kyiv and deposes Zelenskyy, Putin would have to account for an insurgency supported by the West in a country of more than 40 million.

“He has no sustainable political end-game in the face of what is going to continue to be fierce resistance from Ukrainians,” Burns said.

Avril Haines, President Joe Biden's director of national intelligence, said Putin “perceives this as a war he cannot afford to lose. But what he might be willing to accept as a victory may change over time given the significant costs he is incurring.” Intelligence analysts think Putin's recent raising of Russia's nuclear alert level was “probably intended to deter the West from providing additional support to Ukraine,” she said.

The White House's concern about escalation has at times frustrated both Democrats and Republicans. After initially signaling support, the Biden administration declined in recent days to support a Polish plan to donate Soviet-era warplanes to Ukraine that would have required the US to participate in the transfer. The administration previously delayed sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and would not send Stinger air-defense missiles to Ukraine before changing course.

Questioned on Thursday, Haines said Putin might see the plane transfer as a bigger deal than the anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons already going to Ukraine. Haines did not disclose whether the US had intelligence to support that finding.

US Rep. Mike Quigley, an Illinois Democrat who sits on the House Intelligence Committee, said the Biden administration had been “always a step or two late” out of fear of triggering Putin. He urged the White House to agree quickly to the transfer of planes.

“I think it comes off as quibbling,” Quigley said. “If anyone thinks that Putin is going to distinguish and differentiate — 'Oh, well, they're taking off from Poland' — he sees all of this as escalatory.”

Meanwhile, as the violence worsens and more Russians die, the West is also watching for any sign of holes forming in Putin's “propaganda bubble.” One independent Russian political analyst, Kirill Rogov, posted on his Telegram account that the war is “lost” and an “epic failure.”

“The mistake was the notion that the West was unwilling to resist aggression, that it was lethargic, greedy and divided,” Rogov wrote. “The idea that the Russian economy is self-sufficient and secure was a mistake. The mistake was the idea of ​​the quality of the Russian army. And the main mistake was the idea that Ukraine is a failed state, and Ukrainians are not a nation.

“Four mistakes in making one decision is a lot,” he said.

Before the invasion, polling conducted by the Levada Center, Russia's top independent opinion research firm, found that 60% of respondents consider the US and NATO the “initiators” of conflict in eastern Ukraine. Just 3% answered Russia. The polling was in January and February, and the Levada Center has not published new polling since the war began.

Outsiders hope ordinary Russians will respond to the sharp decline in their living standards and find honest portrayals of the war through relatives and online, including by using VPN software to bypass Kremlin blocks on social media. Russian state television continues to air false or unsupported allegations about the US and Ukrainian governments and push a narrative that Russia can't afford to lose the war.

“Otherwise, it will lead to the death of Russia itself,” said Vladimir Solovyov, host of a prime-time talk show on state TV channel Russia 1, on his daily radio show last week.



What Trump’s New Weapons Plan for Ukraine Might Mean

US President Donald Trump meets with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, where President Trump announces a deal to send US weapons to Ukraine through NATO, in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, DC, US, July 14, 2025. (Reuters)
US President Donald Trump meets with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, where President Trump announces a deal to send US weapons to Ukraine through NATO, in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, DC, US, July 14, 2025. (Reuters)
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What Trump’s New Weapons Plan for Ukraine Might Mean

US President Donald Trump meets with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, where President Trump announces a deal to send US weapons to Ukraine through NATO, in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, DC, US, July 14, 2025. (Reuters)
US President Donald Trump meets with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, where President Trump announces a deal to send US weapons to Ukraine through NATO, in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, DC, US, July 14, 2025. (Reuters)

President Donald Trump has endorsed a plan to have European allies buy billions of dollars worth of US military equipment that can be transferred to Ukraine as Kyiv looks for way to better defend itself against intensified Russian attacks.

Trump announced the effort Monday during an Oval Office meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who has been working with European countries to coordinate the purchase of US weapons.

The plan is designed to allow the US to funnel more firepower to Ukraine to combat invading Russian forces during their summer military offensive while easing Washington's financial burden.

Increased weapons shipments, combined with possible new penalties Trump has promised if a halt to the fighting isn't reached in 50 days, could push Russian President Vladimir Putin into peace talks that Trump has championed for months - so far with little to show for it.

Here's a look at what Trump promised and what it might mean:

The US plans to sell Patriot missile batteries - systems ideal for shielding territory against incoming missile attacks - and other weapons to European allies that would be transferred to Kyiv.

"We're going to supply weapons to NATO at a large amount," Trump said.

Rutte said Germany, Finland, Canada, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom and Denmark would be among the buyers to supply Ukraine, and noted that "speed is of the essence here."

Later Monday, during a meeting with his administration's faith office and business leaders, Trump said, "They're going to deliver the weapons, and they're going to pay for 100% of the weapons."

The president had earlier teased the announcement, but the details of the transfers - exactly what munitions they would include, the specifics of their delivery and their timing- were unclear.

Other parts of the administration deferred to the White House, where officials said details were still being worked out.

On a call with the other foreign ministers of the Quad grouping - India, Japan and Australia - Secretary of State Marco Rubio "underscored that it remains a priority of President Trump to bring the war to an end through a durable negotiated settlement," State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius met with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon to discuss some details - particularly related to the Patriot batteries - and noted greater defense spending.

"We are determined to assume greater responsibility for Europe's deterrence and defense," said Pistorius, whose government has offered to finance two additional Patriot systems.

In addition to Germany, Greece and Spain are among the NATO members believed to have spare Patriots to send to Ukraine, as long as they are eventually replaced.

US officials said that anything to be supplied to Ukraine in the short term will have to come from existing stockpiles and that it will take several years to replace whatever is sent to Kyiv.

Russia has pounded Ukrainian cities with hundreds of drones and cruise and ballistic missiles that its air defenses are struggling to counter. At the same time, Russia's bigger army is making a new effort to drive back Ukrainian defenders on parts of the 620-mile (1,000-kilometer) front line.

Trump announced last week that the US planned to send more defensive weapons to Ukraine, following a prior pause in some deliveries during a review of US stockpiles.

Still, the president expressed frustration about US resources going to Ukraine, reiterating Monday that "this is not Trump's war. We're here to get it finished and stopped."

During the meeting with Rutte, he also praised European leaders for being willing to take on a larger responsibility for arming Ukraine - a far cry from once criticizing Europe for failing to spend more on defense.

"I have to tell you, Europe has a lot of spirit for this war," Trump said. "When I first got involved, I didn't think they did, but they do."

Trump again vented his frustrations about stalled negotiations to end the war, saying the US will impose steep trade penalties if Moscow doesn't reach a peace deal with Kyiv in the next 50 days.

"Tariffs at about 100% - you'd call them secondary tariffs," Trump said without providing details.

Secondary tariffs would target Russia's trading partners in an effort to isolate Moscow in the global economy - potentially including nations that rely on Russia for oil and natural gas.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick later clarified that Trump was actually referring to economic sanctions, rather than tariffs.

Separately, some Republicans close to Trump, including South Carolina Sen. Lindsay Graham, are promoting a bipartisan sanctions package targeting Russia that is working its way through Congress.

Trump said Monday that "I'm not sure we need it" given his threat for economic consequences if the fighting continues. But, he added, "it could be very useful, we'll have to see."

An emboldened Russia has ramped up military offensives on two fronts in Ukraine, seeking an advantage before the fighting season wanes in the fall.

Trump's 50-day deadline will allow Kremlin forces to further expand into the strategic eastern logistics hub of Pokrovsk, the capture of which would hand them a major battlefield victory and bring them closer to acquiring the entire Donetsk region.

Russia's forces also have been pushing into Ukraine's northern Sumy region, where Putin hopes to create a "buffer zone" to protect Russia's Kursk and Belgorod regions and defend against the possibility of surprise Ukrainian incursions.

Trump long boasted of his friendly relationship with Putin, repeatedly asserting that Russia was more willing than Ukraine to reach a peace deal. At the same time, Trump accused Zelenskyy of prolonging the war and called him a "dictator without elections."

But Russia's relentless onslaught on civilian areas of Ukraine has worn down Trump's patience.

In April, he urged Putin to "STOP!" launching deadly barrages on Kyiv, and the following month he said in a social media post that the Russian leader "has gone absolutely CRAZY!"

Trump said Monday that he remains in frequent contact with Putin but questioned how much those talks have gotten him.

"My conversations with him are very pleasant, and then the missiles go off at night," Trump said.