Putin’s War in Ukraine Nearing Possibly More Dangerous Phase

Rescuers work at the site of the National Academy of State Administration building damaged by shelling in Kharkiv, Ukraine, March 18, 2022. (AP)
Rescuers work at the site of the National Academy of State Administration building damaged by shelling in Kharkiv, Ukraine, March 18, 2022. (AP)
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Putin’s War in Ukraine Nearing Possibly More Dangerous Phase

Rescuers work at the site of the National Academy of State Administration building damaged by shelling in Kharkiv, Ukraine, March 18, 2022. (AP)
Rescuers work at the site of the National Academy of State Administration building damaged by shelling in Kharkiv, Ukraine, March 18, 2022. (AP)

President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine is approaching a new, potentially more dangerous phase after a month of fighting has left Russian forces stalled by an outnumbered foe. He is left with stark choices — how and where to replenish his spent ground forces, whether to attack the flow of Western arms to Ukrainian defenders, and at what cost he might escalate or widen the war.

Despite failing to score a quick victory, Putin is not relenting in the face of mounting international pressure, including sanctions that have battered his economy. The Western world is aligned largely against Putin, but there have been no indications he is losing support from the majority of the Russian public that relies predominantly on state-controlled TV for information.

Ukrainian defenders, outgunned but benefiting from years of American and NATO training and an accelerating influx of foreign arms and moral support, are showing new signs of confidence as the invading force struggles to regroup.

Russian shortcomings in Ukraine might be the biggest shock of the war so far. After two decades of modernization and professionalization, Putin’s forces have proved to be ill-prepared, poorly coordinated and surprisingly stoppable. The extent of Russian troop losses is not known in detail, although NATO estimates that between 7,000 and 15,000 have died in the first four weeks — potentially as many as Russia lost in a decade of war in Afghanistan.

Robert Gates, the former CIA director and defense secretary, said Putin “has got to be stunningly disappointed” in his military's performance.

“Here we are in Ukraine seeing conscripts not knowing why they’re there, not being very well trained, and just huge problems with command and control, and incredibly lousy tactics,” Gates said at a forum sponsored by The OSS Society, a group honoring the World War II-era intelligence agency known as the Office of Strategic Services.

Battlefield trends are difficult to reliably discern from the outside, but some Western officials say they see potentially significant shifts. Air Vice-Marshal Mick Smeath, London's defense attaché in Washington, says British intelligence assesses that Ukrainian forces probably have retaken two towns west of Kyiv, the capital.

“It is likely that successful counterattacks by Ukraine will disrupt the ability of Russian forces to reorganize and resume their own offensive towards Kyiv,” Smeath said in a brief statement Wednesday.

Ukraine’s navy said Thursday it sank a large Russian landing ship near the port city of Berdyansk.

Faced with stout Ukrainian resistance, Russian forces have resorted to bombardment of urban areas but made little progress capturing the main prize — Kyiv. The Pentagon said Wednesday that some Russian troops were digging in at defensive positions outside of Kyiv rather than attempting to advance on the capital, and that in some cases the Russians have lost ground in recent days.

In an assessment published Thursday, the Atlantic Council said a major Russian breakthrough is highly unlikely.

Not long before Putin kicked off his war Feb. 24, some US military officials believed he could capture Kyiv in short order — perhaps just a few days — and that he might break the Ukrainian military within a couple of weeks. Putin, too, might have expected a quick victory, given that he did not throw the bulk of his pre-staged forces, estimated at more than 150,000, into the fight in the opening days. Nor did his air force assert itself. He has made only limited use of electronic warfare and cyberattacks.

Putin is resorting to siege tactics against key Ukrainian cities, bombing from afar with his ground troops largely stagnant.

Stephen Biddle, a professor of international affairs at Columbia University, says Putin's shift is likely based on a hope that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will give up rather than allow the killing and destruction to continue.

“This plan is very unlikely to work. Slaughtering innocent civilians and destroying their homes and communities is mostly just stiffening Ukrainian resistance and resolve,” Biddle said in an email exchange.

Ukrainian units have begun counterattacking in some areas, according to John Kirby, the Pentagon press secretary. But the Ukrainians face an uphill battle even as the United States and its allies accelerate and widen a flow of critical weapons and supplies, including anti-aircraft missiles and armed drones. Biden has vowed to seek longer-range air defense systems for Ukraine as well as anti-ship missiles. Last week he approved a new $800 million package of arms for Ukraine.

Philip Breedlove, a retired Air Force general who served as the top NATO commander in Europe from 2013 to 2016 and is now a Europe specialist with the Middle East Institute, said Ukraine may not win the war outright, but the outcome will be determined by what Zelenskyy is willing to accept in a negotiated settlement.

“I think it's highly unlikely that Russia is going to be defeated in detail on the battlefield,” Breedlove said, because Russia has a large reserve of forces it could call on. But Ukraine might see winning as forcing Russia to pay such a high price that it is willing to strike a deal and withdraw.

“I think there is a chance of that,” Breedlove said.

With the war's outcome in doubt, so too is Putin's wider goal of overturning the security order that has existed in Europe since the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Putin demands that NATO refuse membership to Ukraine and other former Soviet states like Georgia, and that the alliance roll back its military presence to positions held prior to expanding into Eastern Europe.

NATO leaders have rejected Putin's demands, and with uncharacteristic speed are bolstering the allied force presence in Romania, Slovakia and Hungary, which border Ukraine, and in Bulgaria, which like Ukraine sits on the Black Sea.

“We are united in our resolve to counter Russia’s attempts to destroy the foundations of international security and stability,” leaders of the 30 allied nations said in a joint statement after meeting in Brussels on Thursday.

The human tragedy unfolding in Ukraine has overshadowed a worry across Europe that Putin could, by miscalculation if not by intent, escalate the conflict by using chemical or nuclear weapons in Ukraine or attempt to punish neighboring NATO nations for their support for Ukraine by attacking them militarily.

“Unfortunately there is now not a single country that can live with the illusion that they are safe and secure,” Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov said, referring to his fellow European members of NATO.

With that threat in mind, the United States and other allied countries have begun assembling combat forces in Bulgaria and other Eastern European NATO countries — not to enter the war directly but to send Putin the message that if he were to widen his war he would face allied resistance.

Speaking at a windswept training range in Bulgaria last week, US Army Maj. Ryan Mannina of the 2nd Cavalry Regiment said the tension is palpable.

“We're very aware that there's a war going on only a few hundred miles from us,” he said.



‘Blink of an Eye’: Survivor Tells of Bangkok Skyscraper Collapse Horror

 Rescuers spray water to reduce dust in Bangkok, Thailand, Saturday, March 29, 2025, while searching for victims at the site of a high-rise building under construction that collapsed after Friday's earthquake. (AP)
Rescuers spray water to reduce dust in Bangkok, Thailand, Saturday, March 29, 2025, while searching for victims at the site of a high-rise building under construction that collapsed after Friday's earthquake. (AP)
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‘Blink of an Eye’: Survivor Tells of Bangkok Skyscraper Collapse Horror

 Rescuers spray water to reduce dust in Bangkok, Thailand, Saturday, March 29, 2025, while searching for victims at the site of a high-rise building under construction that collapsed after Friday's earthquake. (AP)
Rescuers spray water to reduce dust in Bangkok, Thailand, Saturday, March 29, 2025, while searching for victims at the site of a high-rise building under construction that collapsed after Friday's earthquake. (AP)

A construction worker told Saturday how he cheated death when a Bangkok skyscraper collapsed "in the blink of an eye" after a massive earthquake hit Myanmar and Thailand.

Tearful family members gathered at the remains of the 30-storey building, which crumbled to rubble in just seconds on Friday, clinging to shreds of hope that their loved ones who were working when it fell might be found alive.

The tower was being built to house government offices when the quake struck, and construction worker Khin Aung told AFP how the building collapsed just after his brother had entered to start his shift.

"When my shift ended around 1:00 pm I went outside to get water and I saw my younger brother before I went out," he told AFP.

Tremors from the 7.7-magnitude quake centered in neighboring Myanmar -- where the ruling junta said at least 694 people had died -- hit Bangkok around 1:20 pm (0620 GMT), shaking the building.

"When I went outside, I saw dust everywhere and I just ran to escape from the collapsing building," Khin Aung said.

"I video-called my brother and friends but only one picked up the phone. But I can't see his face and I heard he was running.

"At that point the whole building was shaking but while I was on a call with him, I lost the call and the building collapsed."

Authorities say up to 100 workers may be trapped in the mass of rubble and twisted metal that is all that remains of the tower. At least five are confirmed dead but the toll is almost certain to rise.

"I can't describe how I feel -- it happened in the blink of an eye," said Khin Aung.

"All my friends and my brother were in the building when it collapsed. I don't have any words to say."

- Desperate relatives -

Bangkok's skyline is ever-changing, with buildings constantly torn down and shiny new skyscrapers thrown up.

The ceaseless reinvention is powered by an army of laborers, a huge proportion of whom are drawn from Myanmar by the prospect of regular work, a peaceful country and better wages than at home.

Many relatives of workers from Myanmar gathered at the site on Saturday hoping for news of the missing.

Khin Aung and his brother -- married with two children -- have been working in Bangkok for six months.

"I heard they sent 20 workers to hospital, but I don't know who are they and my friends and brother are among them," he said.

"I hope my brother and friends are in hospital. If they are at the hospital, I have hope. If they are under this building, there is no hope for them to survive."

Thai woman Chanpen Kaewnoi, 39, waited anxiously for news of her mother and sister, who were in the building when it went down.

"My colleague called and said she couldn't find my mum or my sister. I thought mum might have slipped and maybe my sister stayed to help her," she told AFP.

"I want to see them, I hope I can find them. I hope they will not be lost. I still have hope, 50 percent."

As distraught families waited for news, rescue workers pressed on with the delicate task of searching the ruins without triggering further collapses.