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What’s at Stake in France’s Presidential Election

France Affichage Plus workers paste official campaign posters of French Presidential election candidates on electoral panels in Saint-Herblain near Nantes, France, March 28, 2022. (Reuters)
France Affichage Plus workers paste official campaign posters of French Presidential election candidates on electoral panels in Saint-Herblain near Nantes, France, March 28, 2022. (Reuters)
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What’s at Stake in France’s Presidential Election

France Affichage Plus workers paste official campaign posters of French Presidential election candidates on electoral panels in Saint-Herblain near Nantes, France, March 28, 2022. (Reuters)
France Affichage Plus workers paste official campaign posters of French Presidential election candidates on electoral panels in Saint-Herblain near Nantes, France, March 28, 2022. (Reuters)

The French will head to the polls in April for a presidential election that will determine who will run the European Union's second-largest economy, and its only member with a permanent UN security council seat, as war rages on the bloc's doorstep.

Who will win?

The incumbent, President Emmanuel Macron, is the favorite in opinion polls. But the projected margin is narrower than when he was elected in 2017 and he is facing stiff competition from the right.

Even if he succeeds, Macron will need his centrist La Republique en Marche (LaRem) party - which has failed in all recent local elections - and its allies to win a parliamentary election in June if he is to have a strong platform to implement his policies.

What to watch for:

- The race between Valerie Pecresse of the conservative Les Republicains, the far-right's Marine Le Pen and Eric Zemmour and the far-left's Jean-Luc Melenchon to be Macron's challenger in the likely second-round run-off.

- Will Macron trip up and lose his lead? In 2017, the early favorites lost the election to then-outsider Macron.

- Voter uncertainty. Opinion polls show many are unsure who they will vote for, and turnout could be much lower than usual, adding more uncertainty.

What will the election be fought over?

- The election campaign started amid a war in Ukraine. Polls show that could impact the vote's outcome, with initial surveys indicating a boost for Macron.

- Immigration and security issues had long been at the forefront of the political debate, but opinion polls show purchasing power as one of voters' top concerns, amid a huge increase in energy prices and growing inflation.

- Economic recovery, and whether it holds. Opinion polls show voters are unhappy with Macron's economic policy, but unemployment is at its lowest in years and those surveyed don't think any of his opponents would do better.

- How Macron handled the pandemic could also play a role, at a time when restrictions have been largely lifted but the number of COVID-19 cases is growing again.

Why does it matter?

- Russia's invasion of Ukraine has sent shockwaves through Europe and beyond. The winner of France's election will have to deal with the fallout.

- Now that Britain has left the European Union, France is the bloc's main military power. It's also the undisputed second biggest economy in the EU, and Angela Merkel's exit as German chancellor has given Macron a more prominent role in Europe.

- The next president will face soaring public deficits to tackle the impact of the pandemic, a pension system many say needs reforming, and moves to re-industrialize France.

- The political landscape is still feeling the shockwaves from Macron's 2017 election, and the reconstruction of both the right and the left will very much depend on how the presidential and parliamentary elections pan out.

Key dates

April 10 - Presidential election first round

April 24 - Second round held between the top two candidates.

May 13 - The latest day the new president takes office.

June 12 and 19 - Parliamentary election.

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Climate Change Imperils Drought-Stricken Morocco’s Cereal Farmers and Its Food Supply

A farmer works in a wheat field on the outskirts of Kenitra, Morocco, Friday, June 21, 2024. (AP)
A farmer works in a wheat field on the outskirts of Kenitra, Morocco, Friday, June 21, 2024. (AP)
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Climate Change Imperils Drought-Stricken Morocco’s Cereal Farmers and Its Food Supply

A farmer works in a wheat field on the outskirts of Kenitra, Morocco, Friday, June 21, 2024. (AP)
A farmer works in a wheat field on the outskirts of Kenitra, Morocco, Friday, June 21, 2024. (AP)

Golden fields of wheat no longer produce the bounty they once did in Morocco. A six-year drought has imperiled the country's entire agriculture sector, including farmers who grow cereals and grains used to feed humans and livestock.

The North African nation projects this year's harvest will be smaller than last year in both volume and acreage, putting farmers out of work and requiring more imports and government subsidies to prevent the price of staples like flour from rising for everyday consumers.

"In the past, we used to have a bounty — a lot of wheat. But during the last seven or eight years, the harvest has been very low because of the drought," said Al Housni Belhoussni, a small-scale farmer who has long tilled fields outside of the city of Kenitra.

Belhoussni's plight is familiar to grain farmers throughout the world confronting a hotter and drier future. Climate change is imperiling the food supply and shrinking the annual yields of cereals that dominate diets around the world — wheat, rice, maize and barley.

In North Africa, among the regions thought of as most vulnerable to climate change, delays to annual rains and inconsistent weather patterns have pushed the growing season later in the year and made planning difficult for farmers.

In Morocco, where cereals account for most of the farmed land and agriculture employs the majority of workers in rural regions, the drought is wreaking havoc and touching off major changes that will transform the makeup of the economy. It has forced some to leave their fields fallow. It has also made the areas they do elect to cultivate less productive, producing far fewer sacks of wheat to sell than they once did.

In response, the government has announced restrictions on water use in urban areas — including on public baths and car washes — and in rural ones, where water going to farms has been rationed.

"The late rains during the autumn season affected the agriculture campaign. This year, only the spring rains, especially during the month of March, managed to rescue the crops," said Abdelkrim Naaman, the chairman of Nalsya. The organization has advised farmers on seeding, irrigation and drought mitigation as less rain falls and less water flows through Morocco's rivers.

The Agriculture Ministry estimates that this year's wheat harvest will yield roughly 3.4 million tons (3.1 billion kilograms), far less than last year's 6.1 million tons (5.5 billion kilograms) — a yield that was still considered low. The amount of land seeded has dramatically shrunk as well, from 14,170 square miles (36,700 square kilometers) to 9,540 square miles (24,700 square kilometers).

Such a drop constitutes a crisis, said Driss Aissaoui, an analyst and former member of the Moroccan Ministry for Agriculture.

"When we say crisis, this means that you have to import more," he said. "We are in a country where drought has become a structural issue."

Leaning more on imports means the government will have to continue subsidizing prices to ensure households and livestock farmers can afford dietary staples for their families and flocks, said Rachid Benali, the chairman of the farming lobby COMADER.

The country imported nearly 2.5 million tons of common wheat between January and June. However, such a solution may have an expiration date, particularly because Morocco's primary source of wheat, France, is facing shrinking harvests as well.

The United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization ranked Morocco as the world's sixth-largest wheat importer this year, between Türkiye and Bangladesh, which both have much bigger populations.

"Morocco has known droughts like this and in some cases known droughts that las longer than 10 years. But the problem, this time especially, is climate change," Benali said.