All Russia’s Big Exports Could Soon Be in Roubles, Kremlin Signals

Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin, at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow, Russia October 26, 2020. (Kremlin via Reuters)
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin, at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow, Russia October 26, 2020. (Kremlin via Reuters)
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All Russia’s Big Exports Could Soon Be in Roubles, Kremlin Signals

Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin, at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow, Russia October 26, 2020. (Kremlin via Reuters)
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin, at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow, Russia October 26, 2020. (Kremlin via Reuters)

The Kremlin indicated on Wednesday that all of Russia's energy and commodity exports could be priced in roubles, toughening President Vladimir Putin's attempt to make the West feel the pain of the sanctions it imposed for the invasion of Ukraine.

With Russia's economy facing its gravest crisis since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, Putin on March 23 hit back at the West, ordering that Russian gas exports should be paid for in roubles.

That move forced Germany, Europe's biggest economy, to declare on Wednesday an "early warning" that it could be heading for a supply emergency. Germany imported 55% of its gas from Russia last year.

In the strongest signal yet that Russia could be preparing an even tougher response to the West's sanctions, Russia's top lawmaker suggested on Wednesday that almost Russia's entire energy and commodity exports could soon be priced in roubles.

Asked about the comments by parliament speaker Vyacheslav Volodin, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "This is an idea that should definitely be worked on."

"It may well be worked out," Peskov said of the proposal.

Peskov said that the US dollar's role as a global reserve currency had already taken a hit, and that a move to pricing Russia's biggest exports in roubles would be "in our interests and the interests of our partners."

Europe, which imports about 40% of its gas from Russia and pays mostly in euros, says Russia's state-controlled gas giant Gazprom is not entitled to redraw contracts.

"If you want gas, find roubles," Volodin said in a post on Telegram. "Moreover, it would be right - where it is beneficial for our country - to widen the list of export products priced in roubles to include: fertilizer, grain, food oil, oil, coal, metals, timber etc."

Rouble gamble

Russia exports several hundred billion dollars worth of natural gas to Europe each year. Euros account for 58% of Gazprom exports, US dollars 39% and sterling around 3%, according to the company.

Peskov said Russia will give buyers time to switch to roubles.

Still, the exact way in which payments could be made remained unclear as of Wednesday. Russia is trying to both bolster the rouble and, in the longer run, chip away at the dominance of the dollar in pricing global energy and commodities.

To have any hope of achieving that, Russia would need help from China, the world's second-largest economy.

"China is willing to work with Russia to take China-Russian ties to a higher level in a new era under the guidance of the consensus reached by the heads of state," Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says that Russia's relations with China are at their strongest level ever.

Sanctions 'boomerang'

Russian officials have repeatedly said the West's attempt to isolate one of the world's biggest producers of natural resources is an irrational act of self harm that will lead to soaring prices for consumers and tip Europe and the United States into recession.

Russia says the sanctions - and in particular the freezing of about $300 billion in Russian central bank reserves - amount to a declaration of economic war.

Former President Dmitry Medvedev said the sanctions had "boomeranged" back to undermine European and North America economies, driving up prices for fuel and heating and eroding confidence in the dollar and euro.

"The world is waking up: confidence in reserve currencies is melting like a morning fog," Medvedev said. "Abandoning the dollar and the euro as the world's main reserves no longer looks like a fantasy."

Medvedev said "crazy politicians" in the West had sacrificed the interests of their taxpayers on the altar of an unknown victory in Ukraine. "The era of regional currencies is coming."

Russia has long sought to reduce dependence on the US currency, though its main exports - oil, gas and metals - are priced in dollars on global markets.

Globally, the dollar is by far the most traded currency, followed by the euro, yen and British pound.



China Vows Countermeasures if EU Enacts ‘Made in Europe’ Plan

 Visitors tour exhibition booths by Huawei at the Auto China 2026, in Beijing, Friday, April 24, 2026. (AP)
Visitors tour exhibition booths by Huawei at the Auto China 2026, in Beijing, Friday, April 24, 2026. (AP)
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China Vows Countermeasures if EU Enacts ‘Made in Europe’ Plan

 Visitors tour exhibition booths by Huawei at the Auto China 2026, in Beijing, Friday, April 24, 2026. (AP)
Visitors tour exhibition booths by Huawei at the Auto China 2026, in Beijing, Friday, April 24, 2026. (AP)

Beijing slammed on Monday an EU plan aimed to bolster the bloc's industries against fierce competition from China, vowing countermeasures if it is enacted.

The EU unveiled in March new "Made in Europe" rules for companies trying to access public funds in strategic sectors including cars, green tech and steel, obliging firms to meet minimum thresholds for EU-made parts.

The proposal, held up for months by wrangling over the measures, is a key part of a European Union drive to regain its competitive edge, reduce its industrial decline and stave off hundreds of thousands of job losses.

Beijing's commerce ministry said on Monday that it had submitted comments to the European Commission on Friday, expressing China's "serious concerns" regarding the act it called "systemic discrimination".

"If the EU... presses ahead with the legislation, and thereby harms the interests of Chinese companies, China will have no choice but to take countermeasures to firmly safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of its enterprises," the commerce ministry warned in a statement.

European businesses in many of the sectors concerned by the proposal have long lamented they face unfair competition from heavily subsidized Chinese rivals.

The EU proposal, formally known as the "Industrial Accelerator Act", implicitly targets Chinese makers of batteries and electric vehicles by requiring foreign firms to partner with European firms and pass on technological know-how when setting up shop in the bloc.

The Chinese Chamber of Commerce to the EU said this month the plan marked a shift towards protectionism that would affect trade cooperation between the EU and China.


ECB Set to Hold Rates Steady with Eye on Iran Crisis

19 March 2026, Hesse, Frankfurt Main: A sign reading "European Central Bank - Eurosystem" stands in front of the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt. (dpa)
19 March 2026, Hesse, Frankfurt Main: A sign reading "European Central Bank - Eurosystem" stands in front of the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt. (dpa)
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ECB Set to Hold Rates Steady with Eye on Iran Crisis

19 March 2026, Hesse, Frankfurt Main: A sign reading "European Central Bank - Eurosystem" stands in front of the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt. (dpa)
19 March 2026, Hesse, Frankfurt Main: A sign reading "European Central Bank - Eurosystem" stands in front of the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt. (dpa)

The European Central Bank is expected to hold interest rates steady again this week as it waits to see if the inflation spike triggered by the Middle East war will prove temporary or begin to weigh on growth.

Markets ramped up their bets on a rate hike after the US-Israeli war on Iran sparked a global energy shock, which is already pushing up eurozone consumer prices.

Inflation in the 21-nation single currency area jumped to 2.6 percent in March, above the ECB's two-percent target, and the bank has warned it could surge far higher in a worst-case scenario.

ING economist Carsten Brzeski said the ECB's mantra before the war -- that it was in a "good place" on rates -- was "no more".

"The bank is back in crisis mode, shifting its focus from longer-term projections to actual developments and back to a 'driving at sight' approach," he said.

Still, economists expect the central bank not to make any moves at its meeting Thursday and keep its benchmark deposit rate at two percent, where it has been since June last year, as it waits to see how the war plays out.

US President Donald Trump has extended a ceasefire with Iran to allow more time for peace talks, and strikes have mostly ended around the region, though the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to tanker traffic.

Energy prices have also not risen as fast as they did in the aftermath of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, economists note, and supply chains are not facing the same disruptions.

- 'Not in a rush'-

Despite the ghosts from 2022, when the ECB was criticized for moving too slowly to raise rates as inflation surged, policymakers have signaled they are not in a hurry.

"We are not in a rush," Bank of Latvia governor Martins Kazaks, a member of the ECB's rate-setting governing council, told The Financial Times last week.

"We still have the large luxury of collecting data and forming our view," he added.

Rate increases would also weigh on the lackluster eurozone economy, whose crucial manufacturers in particular face new pressure from the energy shock.

A survey released last week showed that eurozone business activity contracted for the first time in 16 months in April due to the war's impact.

In the United States, economists have pushed back their expectations of rate cuts as the Iran energy shocks adds to inflationary pressure, and the Federal Reserve is also expected to keep rates on hold when it meets Wednesday.

- 'Double uncertainty' -

Much comes down to whether Iran and the United States can come to a lasting agreement that secures Gulf oil and gas supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, a factor over which the ECB has no control.

All eyes will be on ECB President Christine Lagarde's press conference after the meeting for clues about the outlook for rates.

But she is likely to repeat language of recent weeks that the bank is "well positioned" to deal with the fallout from the war, and refuse to be drawn on future decisions.

Speaking in Berlin last week, Lagarde said the institution was facing "double uncertainty" in that it was unclear both how long the shock would last and what its effects on the broader economy would be.

"The stop-start nature of the conflict -- war, ceasefire, peace talks, their collapse, a naval blockade, its lifting, its reinstatement -- makes it exceptionally hard to gauge the duration and depth of the consequences," she said.

Still, most economists believe the ECB will not take any action on rates just yet.

The situations now and in 2022 are "very different", Oddo BHF economist Bruno Cavalier said.

"The conditions for a surge in non-energy prices and wages are not in place," he added. "The ECB has the luxury of doing nothing."


Dollar Drifts as Traders Assess Stuttering US-Iran Talks

US Dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. (Reuters)
US Dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. (Reuters)
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Dollar Drifts as Traders Assess Stuttering US-Iran Talks

US Dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. (Reuters)
US Dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. (Reuters)

The US dollar wobbled on Monday as wavering hopes of a deal to end the Middle East war left investors on edge in a week when they will also be looking for direction from central bank policymakers on the impact of the conflict.

US President Donald Trump scrapped a visit to Islamabad by his envoys over the weekend, saying Iran could reach out if it wanted to negotiate an end to the two-month war, leaving the pivotal Strait of Hormuz effectively closed.

But sentiment got a lift after Axios reported, citing sources, that Iran offered the US a new proposal through Pakistani mediators on reopening the waterway and ending the war, with nuclear negotiations postponed for a later stage.

The euro cut earlier losses to trade flat at $1.1726, while sterling bought $1.3544, also pulling back a bit. The dollar index, ‌which measures the ‌US currency against six major peers, was at 98.465, down 0.18%.

The dollar benefited ‌in ⁠March from safe-haven ⁠flows as the war erupted but shed most of those gains on hopes of a peace deal this month. It has steadied in recent days after US-Iran talks stalled.

"I have been surprised that the markets are so confident, perhaps even blase, about progress in talks and the prospect of a peace deal," said Kyle Rodda, senior financial analyst at Capital.com, noting the markets are priced for peace.

"The peace might not hold and if it doesn't the markets will have to re-price quite violently."

Although a ceasefire has paused full-scale fighting in the conflict, which began with US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, no agreement has ⁠been reached to end the war, keeping shipping through the Strait of Hormuz at ‌a standstill.

The war has sent oil prices surging, fueled inflation and ‌cast a shadow over the outlook for global growth, with the closure of the strait, which normally carries a fifth of ‌global oil and gas shipments, a key risk.

Brent crude futures were up 1% at $107.20 a barrel and US West ‌Texas Intermediate at $95.80 a barrel, up 1.5% on Monday.

"While a bout of mild stagflation is baked in, the clock is now ticking on whether this turns into a more severe bout like that seen in the 1970s," said Shane Oliver, chief economist and head of investment strategy at AMP in Sydney.

FLURRY OF CENTRAL BANK MEETINGS

Investors will be watching several central bank meetings this week to gauge ‌the impact of the war on prices and rate outlooks, with the Bank of Japan expected to keep rates steady on Tuesday but signal its readiness to ⁠hike as soon as June.

Unlike ⁠last year when higher US tariffs forced a pause in its rate-hike cycle, the BOJ will stress its resolve to keep raising rates as the energy shock risks fueling broad-based inflation, sources familiar with its thinking told Reuters.

The Japanese yen was steady at 159.26 per US dollar, just shy of the crucial 160 level that traders worry could prompt Tokyo to intervene in the currency markets.

The yen has been stuck in the 159 range since early March as investors assess the impact of the oil shock on energy-import-dependent Japan and the BOJ's tightening trajectory.

Gregor Hirt, global CIO for multi asset at Allianz Global Investors, said the resumption of the hiking cycle hinges on geopolitical stabilisation, noting that if tensions eased and the Strait of Hormuz became navigable again, hikes could be back on the table by summer.

"However, investors should not expect aggressive signalling at the April meeting. Instead, the BOJ will likely favor a strategy of incremental guidance to preserve optionality under uncertainty."

The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are all widely expected to hold rates steady this week, with markets looking for policymakers' views about the war's impact on the economy and the path for interest rates.