UK Spy Chief Says Putin Advisors Fear Telling Truth on Ukraine

The director of Britain's intelligence agency GCHQ says Putin had "massively misjudged" the invasion Roslan RAHMAN AFP
The director of Britain's intelligence agency GCHQ says Putin had "massively misjudged" the invasion Roslan RAHMAN AFP
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UK Spy Chief Says Putin Advisors Fear Telling Truth on Ukraine

The director of Britain's intelligence agency GCHQ says Putin had "massively misjudged" the invasion Roslan RAHMAN AFP
The director of Britain's intelligence agency GCHQ says Putin had "massively misjudged" the invasion Roslan RAHMAN AFP

Russian President Vladimir Putin's advisors fear telling him the truth about his "failing" Ukraine war strategy, the head of Britain's top communications spying agency said Thursday.

Putin had "massively misjudged" the invasion, the director of Britain's intelligence agency GCHQ Jeremy Fleming said in a prepared speech to the Australian National University in Canberra.

His remarks, released in advance, echoed US intelligence issued by the White House the previous day indicating Putin was being "misinformed" by his advisors about the progress of the Russian operation.

According to AFP, Western intelligence sources have been keen to play up Russia's failures in the war and highlight divisions within Putin's inner circle.

Fleming said Putin had underestimated the Ukraine resistance, the strength of the international coalition against him, and the impact of economic sanctions.

The Russian leader had also overestimated his own military's ability to secure a rapid victory, he added.

"We've seen Russian soldiers -- short of weapons and morale -- refusing to carry out orders, sabotaging their own equipment and even accidentally shooting down their own aircraft," Fleming said.

"And even though Putin's advisors are afraid to tell him the truth, what's going on and the extent of these misjudgements must be crystal clear to the regime."

Russia's public statement this week that it would "radically" reduce combat operations around the capital Kyiv and the northern city of Chernigiv "perhaps shows they have been forced to significantly rethink", Fleming said.

He warned that cyber attacks from Russia remain a threat.

Though some people were surprised that Moscow had not launched a catastrophic cyber attack, Fleming said it was "never our understanding" that such an offensive was central to the Russian invasion.

Britain's intelligence services had, however, detected a "sustained intent from Russia to disrupt Ukrainian government and military systems", he said.

"We've certainly seen indicators which suggests Russia's cyber actors are looking for targets in the countries that oppose their actions."

On the battlefields in Ukraine, Moscow was using mercenaries and foreign fighters to support its own forces, Fleming said.

They included the Wagner Group, which was "taking it up a gear" after being active in the country since the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014.

"The group works as a shadow branch of the Russian military, providing implausible deniability for riskier operations," he said.

Fleming noted that Chinese President Xi Jinping had refused to condemn the invasion, providing a level of diplomatic and economic support for Russia.

"With an eye on re-taking Taiwan, China does not want to do anything which may constrain its ability to move in the future," he said, predicting however that the China-Russia relationship may deteriorate as China's military and economy grow in power.



Iran to Launch 'Advanced Centrifuges' in Response to IAEA Censure

Western countries successfully moved a resolution at the IAEA to censure Iran over its nuclear program - AFP
Western countries successfully moved a resolution at the IAEA to censure Iran over its nuclear program - AFP
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Iran to Launch 'Advanced Centrifuges' in Response to IAEA Censure

Western countries successfully moved a resolution at the IAEA to censure Iran over its nuclear program - AFP
Western countries successfully moved a resolution at the IAEA to censure Iran over its nuclear program - AFP

Iran said Friday it would launch a series of "new and advanced" centrifuges in response to a resolution adopted by the UN nuclear watchdog that censures Tehran for what the agency called lack of cooperation.

The censure motion brought by Britain, France, Germany, and the United States at the 35-nation board of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) follows a similar one in June.

It came as tensions run high over Iran's atomic program, with critics fearing that Tehran is attempting to develop a nuclear weapon -- a claim the Islamic Republic has repeatedly denied.

The resolution -- which China, Russia and Burkina Faso voted against -- carried with 19 votes in favor, 12 abstentions and Venezuela not participating, two diplomats told AFP.

"The head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran issued an order to take effective measures, including launching a significant series of new and advanced centrifuges of various types," a joint statement by the organization and Iran's foreign ministry said.

Centrifuges are the machines that enrich uranium transformed into gas by rotating it at very high speed, increasing the proportion of fissile isotope material (U-235).

"At the same time, technical and safeguards cooperation with the IAEA will continue, as in the past" and within the framework of agreements made by Iran, the joint Iranian statement added.

Behrouz Kamalvandi, Iran's atomic energy organization spokesman, on Friday said the new measures are mostly related to uranium enrichment.

"We will substantially increase the enrichment capacity with the utilisation of different types of advanced machines," he told state TV.

Iran's retaliatory measures "are reversible if this (Western) hostile action is withdrawn or negotiations are opened," Tehran-based political analyst Hadi Mohammadi told AFP.

- 'Legal obligations' -

The confidential resolution seen by AFP says it is "essential and urgent" for Iran to "act to fulfil its legal obligations" under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) ratified in 1970.

The text also calls on Tehran to provide "technically credible explanations" for the presence of uranium particles found at two undeclared locations in Iran.

In addition, Western powers are asking for a "comprehensive report" to be issued by the IAEA on Iran's nuclear efforts "at the latest" by spring 2025.

The resolution comes after the IAEA's head Rafael Grossi returned from a trip to Tehran last week, where he appeared to have made headway.

During the visit, Iran agreed to an IAEA demand to cap its sensitive stock of near weapons-grade uranium enriched up to 60 percent purity.

- 'Cycle of provocation' -

"Iran did not start the cycle of provocation -- the Western side could, without passing a resolution... create the atmosphere for negotiations if it really was after talks," the analyst Mohammadi said.

In 2015, Iran and world powers reached an agreement that saw the easing of international sanctions on Tehran in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program.

But the United States unilaterally withdrew from the accord in 2018 under then-president Donald Trump and reimposed biting economic sanctions, which prompted Iran to begin rolling back on its own commitments.

On Thursday, Iran's deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs Kazem Gharibabadi warned of Iran's potential next step.

"Iran had announced in an official letter to European countries that it would withdraw from the NPT if the snapback mechanism was activated, and the Security Council sanctions were reinstated," Gharibabadi said in a late-night interview with state TV.

The 2015 deal contains a "snapback" mechanism that can be triggered in case of "significant non-performance" of commitments by Iran.

This would allow many sanctions to be reimposed.

Tehran has since 2021 decreased its cooperation with the agency by deactivating surveillance devices monitoring the nuclear program and barring UN inspectors.

At the same time, it has ramped up its nuclear activities, including by increasing its stockpiles of enriched uranium and the level of enrichment to 60 percent.

That level is close, according to the IAEA, to the 90 percent-plus threshold required for a nuclear warhead and substantially higher than the 3.67 percent limit it agreed to in 2015.