UK Spy Chief Says Putin Advisors Fear Telling Truth on Ukraine

The director of Britain's intelligence agency GCHQ says Putin had "massively misjudged" the invasion Roslan RAHMAN AFP
The director of Britain's intelligence agency GCHQ says Putin had "massively misjudged" the invasion Roslan RAHMAN AFP
TT

UK Spy Chief Says Putin Advisors Fear Telling Truth on Ukraine

The director of Britain's intelligence agency GCHQ says Putin had "massively misjudged" the invasion Roslan RAHMAN AFP
The director of Britain's intelligence agency GCHQ says Putin had "massively misjudged" the invasion Roslan RAHMAN AFP

Russian President Vladimir Putin's advisors fear telling him the truth about his "failing" Ukraine war strategy, the head of Britain's top communications spying agency said Thursday.

Putin had "massively misjudged" the invasion, the director of Britain's intelligence agency GCHQ Jeremy Fleming said in a prepared speech to the Australian National University in Canberra.

His remarks, released in advance, echoed US intelligence issued by the White House the previous day indicating Putin was being "misinformed" by his advisors about the progress of the Russian operation.

According to AFP, Western intelligence sources have been keen to play up Russia's failures in the war and highlight divisions within Putin's inner circle.

Fleming said Putin had underestimated the Ukraine resistance, the strength of the international coalition against him, and the impact of economic sanctions.

The Russian leader had also overestimated his own military's ability to secure a rapid victory, he added.

"We've seen Russian soldiers -- short of weapons and morale -- refusing to carry out orders, sabotaging their own equipment and even accidentally shooting down their own aircraft," Fleming said.

"And even though Putin's advisors are afraid to tell him the truth, what's going on and the extent of these misjudgements must be crystal clear to the regime."

Russia's public statement this week that it would "radically" reduce combat operations around the capital Kyiv and the northern city of Chernigiv "perhaps shows they have been forced to significantly rethink", Fleming said.

He warned that cyber attacks from Russia remain a threat.

Though some people were surprised that Moscow had not launched a catastrophic cyber attack, Fleming said it was "never our understanding" that such an offensive was central to the Russian invasion.

Britain's intelligence services had, however, detected a "sustained intent from Russia to disrupt Ukrainian government and military systems", he said.

"We've certainly seen indicators which suggests Russia's cyber actors are looking for targets in the countries that oppose their actions."

On the battlefields in Ukraine, Moscow was using mercenaries and foreign fighters to support its own forces, Fleming said.

They included the Wagner Group, which was "taking it up a gear" after being active in the country since the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014.

"The group works as a shadow branch of the Russian military, providing implausible deniability for riskier operations," he said.

Fleming noted that Chinese President Xi Jinping had refused to condemn the invasion, providing a level of diplomatic and economic support for Russia.

"With an eye on re-taking Taiwan, China does not want to do anything which may constrain its ability to move in the future," he said, predicting however that the China-Russia relationship may deteriorate as China's military and economy grow in power.



50 European Leaders Assess How Trump Will Affect their Fortunes

In this handout photograph taken and released by the Ukrainian Presidential Press Service on November 7, 2024, European leaders, including Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban (1st row, C) and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky (1st row, 3rd L) pose for a group photo during the European Political Community Summit in Budapest. (Photo by Handout / UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL PRESS SERVICE / AFP)
In this handout photograph taken and released by the Ukrainian Presidential Press Service on November 7, 2024, European leaders, including Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban (1st row, C) and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky (1st row, 3rd L) pose for a group photo during the European Political Community Summit in Budapest. (Photo by Handout / UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL PRESS SERVICE / AFP)
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50 European Leaders Assess How Trump Will Affect their Fortunes

In this handout photograph taken and released by the Ukrainian Presidential Press Service on November 7, 2024, European leaders, including Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban (1st row, C) and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky (1st row, 3rd L) pose for a group photo during the European Political Community Summit in Budapest. (Photo by Handout / UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL PRESS SERVICE / AFP)
In this handout photograph taken and released by the Ukrainian Presidential Press Service on November 7, 2024, European leaders, including Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban (1st row, C) and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky (1st row, 3rd L) pose for a group photo during the European Political Community Summit in Budapest. (Photo by Handout / UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL PRESS SERVICE / AFP)

Around 50 European leaders on Thursday called for a stronger defense posture across the continent that no longer necessitates a fundamental dependence on Washington as they gave a guarded welcome to incoming US President Donald Trump.
The European Political Community summit on Thursday in Hungary's capital Budapest reassessed trans-Atlantic relations in the hope that Donald Trump's second US presidency will avoid the strife of his first administration.
“He was elected by the American people. He will defend the American interests," French President Emmanuel Macron told the other leaders, adding that it was not the role of European Union leaders to “comment on the election ... to wonder if it is good or not.”
“The question is whether we are willing to defend the European interest. It is the only question. It is our priority,” The Associated Press quoted Macron as saying.
Time and again, leaders stepped up to say European defense efforts should be increased.
During his first 2017-2021 presidency, Trump strongly pushed the European NATO allies to spend more on defense, up to and beyond 2% of gross domestic product, and to be less reliant on US military cover. That point has totally sunk in.
“He was the one in NATO who stimulated us to move over the 2%. And now, also thanks to him, NATO, if you take out the numbers of the US, is above the 2%,” NATO chief Mark Rutte said.
Charles Michel, the council president of the 27-nation EU, agreed that the continent needed to become less reliant on the United States.
“We have to be more masters of our destiny,” he said. “Not because of Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, but because of our children.”
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said it was “time to wake up from our geopolitical naivete and to realize that we need to commit additional resources in order to be able to address major challenges. It is a (question of) competitiveness and a European defense.”
During his election campaign, Trump threatened anything from a trade war with Europe to a withdrawal from NATO commitments and a fundamental shift of support for Ukraine in its war with Russia — all issues that could have groundbreaking consequences for nations across Europe.
“Of course he said a lot of things during the campaign,” said Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof, adding they won't all be appearing in his official policies. “Transatlantic cooperation is of the utmost importance both for the US and European interests.”
For now, European leaders hope a new beginning holds the promise of smoother relations.
Rutte, who was Dutch prime minister during Trump's first presidency, said, “I worked with him very well for four years. He is extremely clear about what he wants. He understands that you have to deal with each other to come to joint positions. And I think we can do that.”
And Rutte insisted that the challenges posed by Russia in Ukraine affected both sides of the Atlantic.
“Russia is delivering the latest technology into North Korea in return for North Korean help with the war against Ukraine. And this is a threat not only to the European part of NATO, but also to the US mainland,” he said as he arrived at the summit.
During the campaign, Trump said if he were reelected, he would end the war in Ukraine, now well into its third year, in a single day. Ukraine and many of its European backers fear that this means a peace on terms favorable to Russian President Vladimir Putin and involving the surrender of territory.
European allies in NATO hope to convince Trump that if he helps to negotiate any peace, it should be done from a position of strength, for both Ukraine and the US.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who spoke to Trump last night by phone, told reporters in Budapest that Europe and the US need each other to remain strong.
“It was a good, productive conversation. Of course, we cannot yet know what his specific actions will be. But we hope that America will become stronger. This is the kind of America Europe needs. And a strong Europe is what America needs. This is the bond between allies that should be valued and must not be lost,” he said.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, the summit’s host and an ardent Trump fan, said early Thursday that he already had a phone call with the incoming president overnight, announcing, “We have big plans for the future!”
So did hard-right Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who lauded the “deep and historic strategic partnership that has always tied Rome and Washington.”
That partnership came under constant pressure during Trump’s first term. Trump’s administration slapped tariffs on EU steel and aluminum in 2018, based on the claim that foreign products, even if produced by American allies, were a threat to US national security. Europeans and other allies retaliated with duties on US-made motorcycles, peanut butter and jeans, among other items.
Further compounding an already complicated situation in Europe, Germany — the continent's troubled economic juggernaut — sank into political crisis after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired his finance minister, causing his governing coalition to collapse. Scholz, who remained in Berlin instead of joining the summit in Budapest, will now lead a minority government.
The turmoil raises the specter of an election in a few months and yet another standoff between the emboldened hard right and the establishment parties in Europe.
Those two combined “adds even more pepper and salt to this situation,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said.