UK Spy Chief Says Putin Advisors Fear Telling Truth on Ukraine

The director of Britain's intelligence agency GCHQ says Putin had "massively misjudged" the invasion Roslan RAHMAN AFP
The director of Britain's intelligence agency GCHQ says Putin had "massively misjudged" the invasion Roslan RAHMAN AFP
TT

UK Spy Chief Says Putin Advisors Fear Telling Truth on Ukraine

The director of Britain's intelligence agency GCHQ says Putin had "massively misjudged" the invasion Roslan RAHMAN AFP
The director of Britain's intelligence agency GCHQ says Putin had "massively misjudged" the invasion Roslan RAHMAN AFP

Russian President Vladimir Putin's advisors fear telling him the truth about his "failing" Ukraine war strategy, the head of Britain's top communications spying agency said Thursday.

Putin had "massively misjudged" the invasion, the director of Britain's intelligence agency GCHQ Jeremy Fleming said in a prepared speech to the Australian National University in Canberra.

His remarks, released in advance, echoed US intelligence issued by the White House the previous day indicating Putin was being "misinformed" by his advisors about the progress of the Russian operation.

According to AFP, Western intelligence sources have been keen to play up Russia's failures in the war and highlight divisions within Putin's inner circle.

Fleming said Putin had underestimated the Ukraine resistance, the strength of the international coalition against him, and the impact of economic sanctions.

The Russian leader had also overestimated his own military's ability to secure a rapid victory, he added.

"We've seen Russian soldiers -- short of weapons and morale -- refusing to carry out orders, sabotaging their own equipment and even accidentally shooting down their own aircraft," Fleming said.

"And even though Putin's advisors are afraid to tell him the truth, what's going on and the extent of these misjudgements must be crystal clear to the regime."

Russia's public statement this week that it would "radically" reduce combat operations around the capital Kyiv and the northern city of Chernigiv "perhaps shows they have been forced to significantly rethink", Fleming said.

He warned that cyber attacks from Russia remain a threat.

Though some people were surprised that Moscow had not launched a catastrophic cyber attack, Fleming said it was "never our understanding" that such an offensive was central to the Russian invasion.

Britain's intelligence services had, however, detected a "sustained intent from Russia to disrupt Ukrainian government and military systems", he said.

"We've certainly seen indicators which suggests Russia's cyber actors are looking for targets in the countries that oppose their actions."

On the battlefields in Ukraine, Moscow was using mercenaries and foreign fighters to support its own forces, Fleming said.

They included the Wagner Group, which was "taking it up a gear" after being active in the country since the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014.

"The group works as a shadow branch of the Russian military, providing implausible deniability for riskier operations," he said.

Fleming noted that Chinese President Xi Jinping had refused to condemn the invasion, providing a level of diplomatic and economic support for Russia.

"With an eye on re-taking Taiwan, China does not want to do anything which may constrain its ability to move in the future," he said, predicting however that the China-Russia relationship may deteriorate as China's military and economy grow in power.



Russia Advances in Ukraine at Fastest Monthly Pace Since Start of War, Analysts Say

A police officer drives a vehicle past burning trees during an evacuation of civilians from the outskirts of the Kurakhove town, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 16, 2024. (Reuters)
A police officer drives a vehicle past burning trees during an evacuation of civilians from the outskirts of the Kurakhove town, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 16, 2024. (Reuters)
TT

Russia Advances in Ukraine at Fastest Monthly Pace Since Start of War, Analysts Say

A police officer drives a vehicle past burning trees during an evacuation of civilians from the outskirts of the Kurakhove town, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 16, 2024. (Reuters)
A police officer drives a vehicle past burning trees during an evacuation of civilians from the outskirts of the Kurakhove town, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 16, 2024. (Reuters)

Russian forces are advancing in Ukraine at the fastest rate since the early days of the 2022 invasion, taking an area half the size of Greater London over the past month, analysts and war bloggers say.

The war is entering what some Russian and Western officials say could be its most dangerous phase after Moscow's forces made some of their biggest territorial gains and the United States allowed Kyiv to strike back with US missiles.

"Russia has set new weekly and monthly records for the size of the occupied territory in Ukraine," independent Russian news group Agentstvo said in a report.

The Russian army captured almost 235 sq km (91 sq miles) in Ukraine over the past week, a weekly record for 2024, it said.

Russian forces had taken 600 sq km (232 sq miles) in November, it added, citing data from DeepState, a group with close links to the Ukrainian army that studies combat footage and provides frontline maps.

Russia began advancing faster in eastern Ukraine in July just as Ukrainian forces carved out a sliver of its western region of Kursk. Since then, the Russian advance has accelerated, according to open source maps.

Russia's forces are moving into the town of Kurakhove, a stepping stone towards the logistical hub of Pokrovsk in Donetsk, and have been exploiting the vulnerabilities of Kyiv troops along the frontline, analysts said.

"Russian forces recently have been advancing at a significantly quicker rate than they did in the entirety of 2023," analysts at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said in a report.

The General Staff of Ukraine's armed forces said in its Monday update that 45 battles of varying intensity were raging along the Kurakhove part of the frontline that evening.

The Institute for the Study of War report and pro-Russian military bloggers say Russian troops are in Kurakhove. Deep State said on its Telegram messaging app on Monday that Russian forces are near Kurakhove.

"Russian forces' advances in southeastern Ukraine are largely the result of the discovery and tactical exploitation of vulnerabilities in Ukraine's lines," Institute analysts said in their report.

Russia says it will achieve all of its aims in Ukraine no matter what the West says or does.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has repeatedly said peace cannot be established until all Russian forces are expelled and all territory captured by Moscow, including Crimea, is returned.

But outnumbered by Russian troops, the Ukrainian military is struggling to recruit soldiers and provide equipment to new units.

Zelenskiy has said he believed Russian President Vladimir Putin's main objectives were to occupy the entire Donbas, spanning the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, and oust Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region, parts of which they have controlled since August.