UK Spy Chief Says Putin Advisors Fear Telling Truth on Ukraine

The director of Britain's intelligence agency GCHQ says Putin had "massively misjudged" the invasion Roslan RAHMAN AFP
The director of Britain's intelligence agency GCHQ says Putin had "massively misjudged" the invasion Roslan RAHMAN AFP
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UK Spy Chief Says Putin Advisors Fear Telling Truth on Ukraine

The director of Britain's intelligence agency GCHQ says Putin had "massively misjudged" the invasion Roslan RAHMAN AFP
The director of Britain's intelligence agency GCHQ says Putin had "massively misjudged" the invasion Roslan RAHMAN AFP

Russian President Vladimir Putin's advisors fear telling him the truth about his "failing" Ukraine war strategy, the head of Britain's top communications spying agency said Thursday.

Putin had "massively misjudged" the invasion, the director of Britain's intelligence agency GCHQ Jeremy Fleming said in a prepared speech to the Australian National University in Canberra.

His remarks, released in advance, echoed US intelligence issued by the White House the previous day indicating Putin was being "misinformed" by his advisors about the progress of the Russian operation.

According to AFP, Western intelligence sources have been keen to play up Russia's failures in the war and highlight divisions within Putin's inner circle.

Fleming said Putin had underestimated the Ukraine resistance, the strength of the international coalition against him, and the impact of economic sanctions.

The Russian leader had also overestimated his own military's ability to secure a rapid victory, he added.

"We've seen Russian soldiers -- short of weapons and morale -- refusing to carry out orders, sabotaging their own equipment and even accidentally shooting down their own aircraft," Fleming said.

"And even though Putin's advisors are afraid to tell him the truth, what's going on and the extent of these misjudgements must be crystal clear to the regime."

Russia's public statement this week that it would "radically" reduce combat operations around the capital Kyiv and the northern city of Chernigiv "perhaps shows they have been forced to significantly rethink", Fleming said.

He warned that cyber attacks from Russia remain a threat.

Though some people were surprised that Moscow had not launched a catastrophic cyber attack, Fleming said it was "never our understanding" that such an offensive was central to the Russian invasion.

Britain's intelligence services had, however, detected a "sustained intent from Russia to disrupt Ukrainian government and military systems", he said.

"We've certainly seen indicators which suggests Russia's cyber actors are looking for targets in the countries that oppose their actions."

On the battlefields in Ukraine, Moscow was using mercenaries and foreign fighters to support its own forces, Fleming said.

They included the Wagner Group, which was "taking it up a gear" after being active in the country since the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014.

"The group works as a shadow branch of the Russian military, providing implausible deniability for riskier operations," he said.

Fleming noted that Chinese President Xi Jinping had refused to condemn the invasion, providing a level of diplomatic and economic support for Russia.

"With an eye on re-taking Taiwan, China does not want to do anything which may constrain its ability to move in the future," he said, predicting however that the China-Russia relationship may deteriorate as China's military and economy grow in power.



Dutch See Options for Netanyahu to Visit Despite ICC Arrest Warrant

 Netherlands' Prime Minister Dick Schoof talks during a press conference at the Ministry of General Affairs, in The Hague on November 11, 2024. (AFP)
Netherlands' Prime Minister Dick Schoof talks during a press conference at the Ministry of General Affairs, in The Hague on November 11, 2024. (AFP)
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Dutch See Options for Netanyahu to Visit Despite ICC Arrest Warrant

 Netherlands' Prime Minister Dick Schoof talks during a press conference at the Ministry of General Affairs, in The Hague on November 11, 2024. (AFP)
Netherlands' Prime Minister Dick Schoof talks during a press conference at the Ministry of General Affairs, in The Hague on November 11, 2024. (AFP)

Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof on Friday said there could be options for Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to visit the Netherlands without being arrested, despite the International Criminal Court's (ICC) arrest warrant against him.

His words seemed to tone down a previous stance by his foreign minister Caspar Veldkamp, who last week in parliament said the Netherlands fully cooperates with the ICC, explaining that meant "we act on arrest warrants for people who are on Dutch territory".

Schoof on Friday said there were still scenarios within the Netherlands' duties towards the ICC in which Netanyahu would not be arrested, depending on the reason of his visit.

"The most important thing is that we have obligations that come from the treaty (on which the ICC is based), and that we comply to them," Schoof said at a news conference.

"In light of that, we would have to see how we act when the prime minister of Israel were to come to the Netherlands. There are possible scenarios, also within international law, in which he would be able to come to the Netherlands without being arrested."

Schoof did not elaborate on the circumstances under which Netanyahu could come. Last week he said it might be possible for Netanyahu to visit an international organization located in the Netherlands, such as the UN watchdog for chemical weapons OPCW, without being arrested.

The Netherlands is also host nation to the ICC, which is located in The Hague.

The ICC issued arrest warrants last week for Netanyahu, his former defense chief Yoav Gallant and a Hamas leader, for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Gaza conflict.

Though all EU member states are signatories to the ICC's founding treaty, France said on Wednesday it believed Netanyahu had immunity to actions by the ICC, given Israel has not signed up to the court statutes.

Italy has said it is not feasible to arrest Netanyahu as long as he remains head of Israel's government.

Israel, which launched its offensive in Gaza in response to Hamas's deadly attack on southern Israeli communities on Oct. 7, 2023, has said it will appeal against the warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant.