The Case for and against EU Sanctions on Russian Oil

A large European Union flag lies at the center of Schuman Square outside European Commission headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, May 8, 2021. (Reuters)
A large European Union flag lies at the center of Schuman Square outside European Commission headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, May 8, 2021. (Reuters)
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The Case for and against EU Sanctions on Russian Oil

A large European Union flag lies at the center of Schuman Square outside European Commission headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, May 8, 2021. (Reuters)
A large European Union flag lies at the center of Schuman Square outside European Commission headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, May 8, 2021. (Reuters)

European Union countries on Thursday approved a ban on Russian coal imports from August as part of new measures against Moscow, but are split over whether oil or gas sanctions should follow.

The coal embargo is the EU's first energy sanction against Moscow following its invasion of Ukraine. Officials say the bloc will now discuss sanctions on oil, which represent far bigger imports from Russia than coal.

However, not all countries are on board, with some like Germany and Hungary fearing the economic impact even though civilian killings in Ukraine have increased Europe's resolve to punish the Kremlin.

Russia denies allegations that it has targeted civilians in what President Vladimir Putin calls a "special military operation" to disarm Ukraine.

Here are arguments for and against sanctioning Russian oil.

The case for oil sanctions
Ukraine and EU states including Poland and Lithuania want a ban on Russian oil and gas. Oil is Russia's most lucrative energy export, and blocking it would deprive Moscow of a major revenue stream those countries complain is funding the war.

EU lawmakers on Thursday approved a non-binding resolution for an immediate embargo on Russian energy imports.

Oil and oil products made up more than a third of Moscow's export revenues last year. Currently, Europe spends around $450 million per day on Russian crude oil and refined products, around $400 million per day for gas, and roughly $25 million for coal, according to think-tank Bruegel.

In theory, producers such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have enough spare capacity for Europe to replace the Russian oil it buys, which is roughly half of Russia's total crude exports of 4.7 million barrels per day. However, producer group OPEC+ has so far only committed to incrementally increase output.

The terms of any oil embargo could determine its support among EU states, with options for flexibility including a transition period - like the four-month phase-in agreed for the EU's Russian coal sanctions - or carve-outs for specific products, such as the 10% of Europe's diesel that comes from Russia.

Some countries have suggested halfway measures that would not ban Russian oil purchases, but would withhold some payments for it.

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas - who supports oil and gas sanctions - last week asked the European Commission to propose skimming off a share of Europe's payments for Russian fossil fuels and placing them in a third-party account instead of sending them to Moscow, effectively imposing a tariff on such imports.

The case against oil sanctions
Germany and Hungary are opposed to an immediate oil embargo, which Berlin has said would risk German economic and social stability.

Russia is Europe's biggest oil supplier, providing 26% of EU oil imports in 2020. Europe gets roughly a third of its gross available energy from oil and petroleum products, in sectors from transport to chemicals production.

Sanctioning Russian supply could push up already-high oil prices, which soared to a 14-year peak last month. Germany, Sweden, France and Italy have announced subsidies to shield motorists from high prices - moves criticized by climate campaigners as fossil fuel subsidies.

Brent crude prices could be around 21% higher on average in 2022 under EU oil sanctions, compared with a reference case where voluntary "self-sanctioning" by companies caused a smaller shut-in of Russian supplies, according to the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

The price impact of sanctions would also depend on factors including releases of strategic oil reserves aimed at cooling prices.

Brent crude futures were last trading 0.8% up on Friday at $101.36.

Another concern is that EU oil sanctions could see Russia retaliate by also cutting off the 40% of EU gas it supplies.

Gas sanctions are seen as the last resort in the EU's package of potential energy measures, because of the dependence of European industries and home heating on the fuel, plus the challenges Europe would face to replace Russian supply in a tight global gas market and with limited infrastructure for importing more liquefied natural gas.



Syrians Return to Homs, ‘Capital of the Revolution’ 

A girl holds an independence-era Syrian flag out of the window of a bus carrying displaced Syrians returning home after years of displacement in the northern Aleppo province, at the entrance of the central city of Homs on February 10, 2025. (AFP)
A girl holds an independence-era Syrian flag out of the window of a bus carrying displaced Syrians returning home after years of displacement in the northern Aleppo province, at the entrance of the central city of Homs on February 10, 2025. (AFP)
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Syrians Return to Homs, ‘Capital of the Revolution’ 

A girl holds an independence-era Syrian flag out of the window of a bus carrying displaced Syrians returning home after years of displacement in the northern Aleppo province, at the entrance of the central city of Homs on February 10, 2025. (AFP)
A girl holds an independence-era Syrian flag out of the window of a bus carrying displaced Syrians returning home after years of displacement in the northern Aleppo province, at the entrance of the central city of Homs on February 10, 2025. (AFP)

Once dubbed the capital of the revolution against Bashar al-Assad, Homs saw some of the fiercest fighting in Syria's civil war. Now, displaced people are returning to their neighborhoods, only to find them in ruins.

It was in Homs that the opposition first took up arms to fight Assad's crackdown on peaceful protests in 2011.

The military responded by besieging and bombarding rebel areas such as Baba Amr, where US journalist Marie Colvin and French journalist Remi Ochlik were killed in a bombing in 2012.

Since Assad's ouster, people have started returning to neighborhoods they fled following successive evacuation agreements that saw Assad take back control.

"The house is burned down, there are no windows, no electricity," said Duaa Turki at her dilapidated home in Khaldiyeh neighborhood.

"We removed the rubble, laid a carpet" and moved in, said the 30-year-old mother of four.

"Despite the destruction, we're happy to be back. This is our neighborhood and our land."

Her husband spends his days looking for a job, she said, while they hope humanitarian workers begin distributing aid to help the family survive.

The siege of Homs lasted two years and killed around 2,200 people, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

During the siege, thousands of civilians and opposition fighters were left with nothing to eat but dried foods and grass.

In May 2014, under an evacuation deal negotiated with the former government, most of those trapped in the siege were evacuated, and two years later, Assad seized the last opposition district of Waer.

"We were besieged... without food or water, under air raids, and barrel bombings," before being evacuated to the opposition-held north, Turki said.

A boy walks past the debris of buildings in the Khaldiyeh district in Homs on February 10, 2025. (AFP)

- 'Precious soil of Homs' -

AFP journalists saw dozens of families returning to Homs from northern Syria, many of them tearful as they stepped out of the buses organized by local activists.

Among them was Adnan Abu al-Ezz, 50, whose son was wounded by shelling during the siege and who later died because soldiers at a checkpoint barred him from taking him to hospital.

"They refused to let me pass, they were mocking me," he said with tears in his eyes.

"I knew my house was nearly destroyed, but I came back to the precious soil of Homs," he said.

While protests and fighting spread across Syria over the course of the 13-year war, Homs's story of rebellion holds profound symbolism for the demonstrators.

It was there that Abdel Basset al-Sarout, a football goalkeeper in the national youth team, joined the protests and eventually took up arms.

He became something of a folk hero to many before he joined an armed group and was eventually killed in fighting.

In 2013, his story became the focus of a documentary by Syrian filmmaker Talal Derki named "The Return to Homs", which won international accolades.

Homs returnee Abu al-Moatasim, who remembers Sarout, recounted being detained for joining a protest.

When he saw security personnel approaching in a car, he prayed for "God to drop rocket on us so I die" before reaching the detention center, one of a network dotted around the country that were known for torture.

His father bribed an officer in exchange for his release a few days later, he said.

A vegetable vendor waits for customers in front of a damaged building in Homs on February 10, 2025. (AFP)

- 'Build a state' -

In Baba Amr, for a time early in the war a bastion of the opposition Free Syrian Army, there was rubble everywhere.

The army recaptured the district in March 2012, following a siege and an intense bombardment campaign.

It was there that Colvin and Ochlik were killed in a bombing of an opposition press center.

In 2019, a US court found Assad's government culpable in Colvin's death, ordering a $302.5 million judgement for what it called an "unconscionable" attack that targeted journalists.

Touring the building that housed the press center, Abdel Qader al-Anjari, 40, said he was an activist helping foreign journalists at that time.

"Here we installed the first internet router to communicate with the outside world," he said.

"Marie Colvin was martyred here, targeted by the regime because they did not want (anyone) to document what was happening," he said.

He described her as a "friend" who defied the "regime blackout imposed on journalists" and others documenting the war.

After leaving Homs, Anjari himself became an opposition fighter, and years later took part in the offensive that ousted Assad on December 8, 2024.

"Words cannot describe what I felt when I reached the outskirts of Homs," he said.

Now, he has decided to lay down his arms.

"This phase does not call for fighters, it calls for people to build a state," he said.