Egypt Eyes Adding India as a Wheat Import Origin This Month

Stalks of wheat are seen at a field in El-Kalubia governorate, northeast of Cairo, March 1, 2022. (Reuters)
Stalks of wheat are seen at a field in El-Kalubia governorate, northeast of Cairo, March 1, 2022. (Reuters)
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Egypt Eyes Adding India as a Wheat Import Origin This Month

Stalks of wheat are seen at a field in El-Kalubia governorate, northeast of Cairo, March 1, 2022. (Reuters)
Stalks of wheat are seen at a field in El-Kalubia governorate, northeast of Cairo, March 1, 2022. (Reuters)

Egypt's Supply Ministry has confirmed that it is considering this month adding wheat from India to 16 other national import origins accepted by its state grains buyer, as it seeks to shore up purchases disrupted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

A delegation from Egypt's Agriculture Ministry is in India "looking at phytosanitary measures and examining Indian grains in preparation for the accreditation of India as a wheat import origin," the Supply Ministry said in a statement to Reuters.

Egypt, often the world's top wheat importer, usually buys the grain via tenders set by its state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC). Purchases go toward heavily subsidized bread available to more than 60 million Egyptians.

GASC's tender book currently has 16 accredited wheat import origins, including Russia, Ukraine, France, Germany, Kazakhstan and the United States. The most recent addition, Latvia, was added last November.

GASC often prefers Black Sea wheat because of its proximity, quality and competitive prices, usually forgoing offers from other origins. In its last tender, a rare US wheat bid was offered but was not purchased.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late February has driven up global wheat prices and disrupted Black Sea shipping, though wheat shipments from Russia continued in March.

Future purchases of Indian wheat would depend on suppliers "offering competitive bids at unique prices in GASC's tenders, as well as on the quantities offered," the Supply Ministry said.

India is looking to take advantage of the gap in the wheat export market left by the Ukrainian crisis. Despite surplus wheat stocks, logistical bottlenecks and quality concerns have previously stymied India's efforts to sell large volumes on the world market.

"Since the Egyptian delegation is here, it very clearly means that they are serious about (buying wheat from India)," Sudhanshu Pandey, the top official at India's food ministry, told Reuters.

Egypt has been working to diversify its purchases, holding talks with France, Argentina, and the United States.

The government is studying different ways to purchase wheat, according to several traders, including by issuing limited origin tenders or direct purchases outside the tender framework.

On Monday, GASC issued a limited tender to purchase wheat of European origins only. It cancelled two tenders shortly after the Ukraine war started.

It is unclear whether the government will initiate direct purchases, but traders have said the process could be hindered by Egypt's regulatory framework.



Investors Weigh Market Risks as Israeli-Iranian Tensions Rise

Traders monitoring the movement of stocks on Wall Street (Reuters)
Traders monitoring the movement of stocks on Wall Street (Reuters)
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Investors Weigh Market Risks as Israeli-Iranian Tensions Rise

Traders monitoring the movement of stocks on Wall Street (Reuters)
Traders monitoring the movement of stocks on Wall Street (Reuters)

As the conflict between Israel and Iran escalates, investors are analyzing several potential market scenarios, especially if the United States deepens its involvement. A key concern is a sharp increase in energy prices, which could amplify economic consequences across global markets.

Rising oil prices could fuel inflation, weaken consumer confidence, and diminish the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the near term. This may prompt initial stock market sell-offs and a flight to the US dollar as a safe-haven asset.

While US crude oil prices have surged by around 10% over the past week, the S&P 500 index has remained relatively stable, following a brief decline after the initial Israeli strikes.

Analysts suggest that if Iranian oil supplies are disrupted, market reactions could intensify significantly. A serious supply disruption would likely ripple through global petroleum markets and push oil prices higher, leading to broader economic consequences.

Oxford Economics has outlined three possible scenarios: a de-escalation of conflict, a full suspension of Iranian oil production, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Each scenario carries escalating risks to global oil prices. In the most severe case, prices could soar to $130 per barrel, pushing US inflation to nearly 6% by year-end. In such a scenario, consumer spending would likely contract due to declining real income, and any possibility of interest rate cuts this year would likely vanish under rising inflationary pressure.

So far, the most direct impact has been felt in oil markets, where Brent crude futures have jumped as much as 18% since June 10, reaching nearly $79 a barrel, the highest level in five months. Volatility expectations in the oil market now exceed those of major asset classes like equities and bonds.

Although equities have largely brushed off the geopolitical turmoil, analysts believe this could change if energy prices continue to climb. Rising oil prices could weigh on corporate earnings and consumer demand, indirectly pressuring stock markets.

While US stocks have held steady for now, further American involvement in the conflict could spark market anxiety. Historical patterns suggest any sell-off might be short-lived. For instance, during the 2003 Iraq invasion, stocks initially dropped but recovered in subsequent months.

As for the US dollar, its performance amid escalating tensions could vary. It may strengthen initially due to safe-haven demand, although past conflicts have sometimes led to long-term weakness, especially during prolonged military engagements.