World Bank: War in Ukraine Raising Risks for MENA

The World Bank Group building is viewed on an empty street in Washington, D.C., US, April 13, 2020. (AFP Photo)
The World Bank Group building is viewed on an empty street in Washington, D.C., US, April 13, 2020. (AFP Photo)
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World Bank: War in Ukraine Raising Risks for MENA

The World Bank Group building is viewed on an empty street in Washington, D.C., US, April 13, 2020. (AFP Photo)
The World Bank Group building is viewed on an empty street in Washington, D.C., US, April 13, 2020. (AFP Photo)

The war in Ukraine has "multiplied risks" for the Middle East and North Africa's poorer countries by raising food and energy prices, the World Bank said Thursday, warning of potential social unrest.

In its latest update to its MENA growth forecast, the development lender said inflationary pressures set off by Covid-19 "are likely to be exacerbated" by Russia's invasion.

"The threat of Covid-19 variants remains and the war in Ukraine has multiplied risks, particularly for the poor," the World Bank's MENA vice president, Ferid Belhaj, said in the report, titled "Reality Check".

World Bank president David Malpass said this week that the Russian war on Ukraine has started a chain reaction in the global economy, pushing energy and food prices higher, exacerbating debt concerns and potentially worsening poverty and hunger.

"Rising food prices may have far-reaching effects beyond increasing food insecurity," said the report, adding: "Historically in MENA, increases in bread prices have... contributed to increased social unrest and conflict.

"This link between food prices, conflict and low growth poses a serious concern for the humanitarian crisis in fragile, conflict and violence-affected states in MENA," it said.

Ukraine is a key source of grain, while Russia is a major producer of energy and fertilizer needed for agriculture. The MENA region is heavily dependent on wheat supplies from both countries.

According to the report, inflation in Gulf countries is expected to reach 3.0 percent this year compared to 1.2 percent in 2021, and will rise to 3.7 percent in oil-importing countries from 1.4 percent last year.

"For some oil importers, food subsidies would be hard to maintain due to limited resources," while "rising oil prices could delay reforms", the report said.

Despite that, the World Bank forecasts that economic growth in the region will be 5.2 percent in 2022, the fastest rate since 2016.

"The region as a whole is buoyed by oil" and is doing "much better" than any other in the world, lead economist for the MENA region Daniel Lederman told AFP in an interview.

However, the expected growth is "insufficient and uneven".

"Insufficient because a large number of economies in the MENA region will still be poor in terms of their GDP per capita relative to where they were in 2019 in the eve of the pandemic," he said.

And "uneven because the faster (recovering) economies for 2022 are expected to be oil exporters, but oil importers are expected to suffer".

Lederman urged greater transparency from MENA governments regarding their economic data, citing this as a factor behind previously overoptimistic forecasts.

"Published research in leading economic journals in the world indicate that overly optimistic and imprecise forecasts are associated with debt and financial vulnerabilities, higher probability of financial crises and even economic contractions in the near future," he said.



Oil Falls Nearly 4% as Iran's Retaliation Focuses on Regional US Military Bases

FILE PHOTO: A meter shows the gas pressure in pipelines at oil and gas group MOL's gas transmission subsidiary in Vecses January 2, 2009.  REUTERS/Karoly Arvai (HUNGARY)/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A meter shows the gas pressure in pipelines at oil and gas group MOL's gas transmission subsidiary in Vecses January 2, 2009. REUTERS/Karoly Arvai (HUNGARY)/File Photo
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Oil Falls Nearly 4% as Iran's Retaliation Focuses on Regional US Military Bases

FILE PHOTO: A meter shows the gas pressure in pipelines at oil and gas group MOL's gas transmission subsidiary in Vecses January 2, 2009.  REUTERS/Karoly Arvai (HUNGARY)/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A meter shows the gas pressure in pipelines at oil and gas group MOL's gas transmission subsidiary in Vecses January 2, 2009. REUTERS/Karoly Arvai (HUNGARY)/File Photo

Oil prices slipped more than $3, or 4%, on Monday after Iran attacked the US military base in Qatar in retaliation for US attacks on its nuclear facilities, and took no action to disrupt oil and gas tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures were down $2.91, or 3.8%, at $74.09 a barrel by 1:13 p.m. ET (1713GMT). US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) eased $2.8, or 3.8%, to $71.06, Reuters reported.

"Oil flows for now aren't the primary target and is likely not to be impacted, I think it's going to be military retaliation on US bases and/or trying to hit more of the Israeli civilian targets," said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital.

US President Donald Trump said he had "obliterated" Iran's main nuclear sites in strikes over the weekend, joining an Israeli assault in an escalation of conflict in the Middle East as Tehran vowed to defend itself.

Israel also carried out fresh strikes against Iran on Monday including on capital Tehran and the Iranian nuclear facility at Fordow, which was also a target of the US attack.

At least two supertankers made U-turns near the Strait of Hormuz following US military strikes on Iran, ship tracking data shows, as more than a week of violence in the region prompted vessels to speed, pause, or alter their journeys.

About a fifth of global oil supply flows through the strait. However, the risk of a complete shutdown is low, analysts have said.

A telegraphed attack on a well defended US base could be a first step in reducing tensions provided there are no US casualties, Energy Aspects said in a post.

"Unless there are indications of further Iranian retaliation or escalation by Israel/the US then we may see some geopolitical risk premium come out of the price in subsequent days," it said.

Qatar said there were no casualties from the attack on the US military base.
Iran, which is OPEC's third-largest crude producer, said on Monday that the US attack on its nuclear sites expanded the range of legitimate targets for its armed forces and called Trump a "gambler" for joining Israel's military campaign against Iran.

Meanwhile, Trump expressed a desire to see oil prices kept down amid fears that ongoing fighting in the Middle East could cause them to spike. On his Truth Social platform, he addressed the US Department of Energy, encouraging "drill, baby, drill" and saying, "I mean now."

Investors are still weighing up the extent of the geopolitical risk premium, given the Middle East crisis has yet to crimp supply.

HSBC expects Brent prices to spike above $80 a barrel to factor in a higher probability of a Strait of Hormuz closure, but to recede again if the threat of disruption does not materialize, the bank said on Monday.

Iraq's state-run Basra Oil Company said international oil majors including BP, TotalEnergies and Eni had evacuated some staff members working in oilfields.