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Yemen in the Grips of Optimism

The head of Yemen's new presidential council Rashad al-Alimi stands during a session of the Yemeni parliament during which he and members of the presidential council took the oath in Aden, Yemen April 19, 2022. (Reuters)
The head of Yemen's new presidential council Rashad al-Alimi stands during a session of the Yemeni parliament during which he and members of the presidential council took the oath in Aden, Yemen April 19, 2022. (Reuters)
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Yemen in the Grips of Optimism

The head of Yemen's new presidential council Rashad al-Alimi stands during a session of the Yemeni parliament during which he and members of the presidential council took the oath in Aden, Yemen April 19, 2022. (Reuters)
The head of Yemen's new presidential council Rashad al-Alimi stands during a session of the Yemeni parliament during which he and members of the presidential council took the oath in Aden, Yemen April 19, 2022. (Reuters)

It may be naive to speak of optimism seven years since the coup by the Iran-backed Houthi militias and the consequent eruption of the war. The recent changes however, have led to optimism because they have allowed the Yemenis to draw up scenarios that may have been impossible up until a few weeks ago.

The Yemenis came together for consultations in Riyadh in late March and early April. This was the first time hundreds of Yemenis meet since the 2012-2013 national dialogue.

The consultations inspired Yemen and the Saudi-led Arab coalition to declare a unilateral ceasefire, which was followed by a nationwide truce sponsored by the United Nations.

The Riyadh talks culminated in several agreements and decisions, capped with the formation of the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) that will pave a new path for Yemen's future that would hopefully be marked by consensus.

The PLC proved a breakthrough in numerous issues that had been tied down by the previous narrow view of how to deal with the crisis. The former team, which is being replaced by the council, had used up a lot of time and means and exhausted its options in how to handle the crisis. Its policies had only led to more problems and crises, consolidating the state of failure and ineptitude.

Asharq Al-Awsat met with several Yemeni and western experts to discuss the challenges and visions in store for Yemen.

Zaed al-Thari had taken part in the political track of the Riyadh consultations. He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the PLC could be viewed as a new beginning "that is more aware of Yemen's diversity."

He said high hopes are pinned on the council and it has been tasked with heavy responsibilities.

Adam Baron, a writer and political analyst, said the Gulf mediation has a "long history" in Yemen. The Riyadh consultations could be seen as being based on the 2011 Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) initiative.

The PLC, he continued, could be viewed as a peace council, should negotiations be held with the Houthis. It could also turn into a war council, if the conflict escalates.

Only time will tell which path it will take, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Challenges
Kamel al-Khodani, member of the national resistance's politburo, said the PLC will have to deal with many challenges.

A main challenge is how to activate state institutions and revive their duties in the interim capital, Aden, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

It is also tasked with achieving political, security and economic stability, improving the living conditions of the people and stopping the collapse of the currency, manipulation of prices of commodities and oil derivatives.

The PLC can take advantage of the popular, Gulf, regional and international support to overcome these challenges and meet the aspirations of the people in reclaiming the state and peace, added al-Khodani.

Another challenge is for the council to actually work from inside Yemen, specifically Aden.

Huda al-Sarari, a human rights lawyer, noted that the presidential council, government, lawmakers and Shura Council had all returned to Aden for the swearing in of the PLC.

She hoped that they would remain and that they would continue their duties in the liberated areas so that the people would have renewed confidence in them. This will also help in providing services and addressing the economic crisis.

Another challenge facing the PLC is merging the armed forces and implementing the military and security aspects of the Riyadh Agreement, remarked al-Sarari.

The council would also be tasked with mobilizing all fronts against the Houhis if the militias fail to agree to peace and opted to violate the truce, she noted.

"We have grown accustomed to the Houthi violations of truces and agreements," she went on to say.

In fact, the militias' joining of a truce is only a ploy so that they could regroup and reorganize their ranks, she remarked, citing their ongoing desperate attacks in the Marib and Taiz provinces.

Adel Shamsan, a political analyst, told Asharq Al-Awsat that a main challenge facing the PLC is the "unification of the political front."

Once political views are united, then the military fronts will follow, he explained.

Sarah al-Ariqi, a member of the Yemeni Coalition of Independent Women, said the PLC has many challenges to overcome, chief of which is reaching urgent solutions that would allow the unification of the military and security institutions.

Other pressing issues are the organized and regular payment of employee salaries and achieving peace and stability in liberated areas.

None of these goals can be accomplished without the cooperation of all political forces and the support of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and international community, said al-Ariqi.

Gulf mediation
On whether the Gulf mediation will lead to a final solution in Yemen, GCC Ambassador to Yemen Sarhan Al-Minaikher told Asharq Al-Awsat that the council "will always support the choices of the Yemeni people as they seek to end their crisis through the political solution."

"Once all Yemeni parties agree to join negotiations over the comprehensive solution, then they will find all the support from the GCC, which will be keen on hosting those talks," he added, citing consultations that were held for 110 days in Kuwait in 2016.

Al-Khodani stressed that the Yemenis believe that there can be no solution to the crisis "without the brothers in the Gulf."

"All parties know this, including the Houthis," he said.

He noted the positive atmosphere that prevailed during the intra-Yemeni consultations in Riyadh that were sponsored by the GCC.

The consultations confirmed that Yemen is part of the Gulf and that the Yemenis see in the Gulf an extension of their Arab identity, he stated.

Thari said: "It goes without saying that Yemen is part of its Arab Gulf environment and it is an integral part of it."

"The Gulf states, starting with Saudi Arabia, have always supported development and stability in Yemen," he noted.

"The change in the political leadership and establishment of the PLC provides a serious opportunity to overcome some of the main causes of the internal crisis," he continued.

He hoped that that would pave the way for Yemen's return to the Gulf fold and for Gulf-sponsored peace negotiations and national dialogue to be held.

Future scenarios
Asked about what the future has in store for Yemen, Shamsan replied: "The coming days will be full of hope and the rapid developments confirm this."

He also hailed the GCC for declaring its continued support to Yemen as it embarks on a new path towards peace and ending the war.

Sarari painted a less optimistic vision, hoping first that the new government would set aside its usual disputes over shares and instead focus on uniting ranks and ending the Houthi coup, either through peaceful means or through the military solution.

The PLC will then be able to carry out economic reforms, provide services to the people, pay salaries throughout the country and create sustainable solutions through reaping oil revenues, she added.

The military aspect of the Riyadh Agreement could then be implemented. The judiciary would then be revived. Active efforts to fight corruption would kick off. Audit agencies would be activated in order to boost transparency and sound governance. She also stressed the need to fight terrorism and secure international marine navigation.

Al-Khodani believes that the scenarios for the solution will be limited to two options.

The first would see the Houthis succumbing to calls to end the war. They would sit at the negotiations table, abandon pro-Iran slogans and agree to hold elections.

The second scenario would see the continuation of the war to liberate Sanaa and other regions from the Houthis.

Al-Ariqi said either scenario will end the suffering of the Yemeni people, a need that the international community believes in.

Journalist Faisal al-Shabibi remarked: "The best scenario is the political solution that everyone wants in order to stop the bloodshed and preserve what remains of the state."

Unfortunately, the solution remains out of reach "given the Houthis' intransigence and ideology that is alien to Yemen and detached from reality."

The militias want to impose their views on the Yemenis by force, he added, while also citing previous governments' miserable experience with the Houthis, who have always reneged on any signed agreement, since the eruption of the first war in June 2004 and to this very day.

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Arab Gulf in 25 Years: Prosperity in a Region on Fire

Saudi Arabia launched its Vision 2030 in 2016. (AP)
Saudi Arabia launched its Vision 2030 in 2016. (AP)
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Arab Gulf in 25 Years: Prosperity in a Region on Fire

Saudi Arabia launched its Vision 2030 in 2016. (AP)
Saudi Arabia launched its Vision 2030 in 2016. (AP)

Dr. Ibrahim Al-Othaimin*

I like to refer to Henry Kissinger in summing up the reality experienced in the region over the past quarter century. In his book, “World Order: Reflections on the Character of Nations and the Course of History”, the former US secretary of state said “the Middle East is caught in a confrontation akin to—but broader than—Europe’s pre-Westphalian wars of religion. Domestic and international conflicts reinforce each other. Political, sectarian, tribal, territorial, ideological, and traditional national-interest disputes merge.”

The wars, he added, were caused by the collapse of the state and their transformation into fertile ground for terrorism and weapons smuggling. The collapse will subsequently lead to the breakup of the regional and world orders.

The Arab region witnessed unprecedented developments in the past 25 years that have altered its features and impacted the structure of its regional order. The Arab Gulf countries were at the heart of these developments. Despite the regional and international threats, they managed to maintain their internal stability and consolidate their pivotal role in achieving regional balance, underscoring their position as the cornerstone of security and stability in the region.

The September 11, 2001, attacks changed the shape of the world. (Reuters file)

First wars of the 21st Century

The September 11, 2001, attacks marked the beginning of the first wars of the 21st Century that would go on to change global security equations. They would also lead to massive pressure on the region by the terrorist al-Qaeda organization. The developments were a real turning point in global counter-terrorism efforts.

Saudi Arabia and the Gulf were victims of a series of terrorist attacks in the past decades that targeted their security and stability. The worst of the attacks targeted a refinery in the city of Yanbu. It was carried out by Mustafa al-Ansari, an al-Qaeda member who had taken part in fighting in Afghanistan and Somalia. Another attack targeted Halliburton offices in the city of Khobar.

The Gulf countries responded to these challenges by taking firm counter-terrorism measures and launching efforts to dry their sources of funding. In 2002, the Gulf Cooperation Council countries approved a joint security strategy to combat terrorism.

In 2004, Gulf countries signed a counter-terrorism agreement during a meeting of interior ministers in Kuwait. The agreements established a legal framework for GCC efforts to bolster coordination between their members. In 2006, they set up a permanent security committee tasked with combating terror. The committee meets regularly to address terrorism-related issues and to bolster joint security cooperation.

The 2003 US invasion of Iraq was one the landmark moments in the war on terror. It forever changed the shape of the region, paving the way for a new chapter of unrest. The toppling of Saddam Hussein’s regime led to security vacuum that gave way for sectarian divisions and increased Iran’s influence, creating instability in the region.

Even though the Gulf countries opposed the invasion and stressed the need to respect international laws, they found themselves having to confront its fallout. On the political level, they expressed their concern over Iran’s growing influences and intensified their efforts to back Iraq’s unity, stability, sovereignty and independence. They supported the political process that was led by the UN, including holding legislative elections and the ratification of a new constitution.

On the security level, the Gulf countries sought to bolster their defense capabilities, intensify intelligence cooperation and boost security partnerships with the US to counter Iran's influence.

A US soldier covers a Saddam Hussein statue with an American flag in Baghdad on April 5, 2003. (AFP)

Major collapses

The region was soon swept by the 2011 so-called “Arab Spring” protests. The Gulf was again put to the test of maintaining its internal security and stability amid the major collapses of regimes and rulers across the region, starting with Tunisia, then Egypt, Libya, Syria and Yemen.

These developments led to the collapse of political systems and the fragmentation of the countries’ social and political structures. Chaos reigned, leading to unrest and protests, which were fertile ground for the emergence of terrorist groups and foreign meddling that seek their interests at the expense of regional stability.

The Gulf countries feared that these changes would lead to the spread of so-called political Islamist ideology in the Arab world. They approached the “Arab Spring” from a deep strategic view and with total awareness of the challenges at hand. This allowed them to take calculated steps that preserved their internal stability and regional roles. The countries also worked on consolidating internal unity and listened to the demands of the people to ensure that stability is maintained.

On the regional level, the Gulf contained the impact of the crises through supporting allied countries that were affected by the unrest. They also intervened directly in some countries, such as Yemen and Bahrain, to preserve stability and avert the spread of chaos.

After more than a decade since the “Arab Spring” developments, their impact is still very much felt to this day in several countries in the region. Throughout, the Gulf countries managed to maintain their stability and present themselves as a regional force that can help in confronting chaos and unrest.

The crises in Gaza and Lebanon have topped the concerns of Gulf countries. (SPA)

COVID-19

No sooner had the region caught its breath after the unrest than it was confronted by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The world was faced with an unprecedented threat that helped reshape health and economic priorities and left a lasting impact on various levels.

The Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia, handled the crisis with extraordinary skill. From the very first moment the virus emerged, the Kingdom took firm measures and offered healthcare to everyone without exception. It provided free treatment, expanded its healthcare sector and rapidly launched vaccination campaigns that were commended by international organizations.

Despite the pandemic’s impact on the global economy and oil prices, the Gulf countries’ preemptive long-term plans and strategies, which called for easing reliance on oil, such as Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, allowed them to weather the storm. The Gulf countries showed vigilant leadership and an exceptional ability to adapt during the pandemic, allowing them to protect their people and preserve their economic and social stability.

Prosperity amid regional tumult

The region is now confronted with a new wave of escalation, especially amid the war on Gaza and the possibility that the conflict may spread in the Middle East. It also has to contend with the fallout of the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria.

Amid these changes, the Gulf countries have again proven their ability to adapt by presenting effective diplomatic initiatives and deepening international coordination with the aim of consolidating stability in the region.

The Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the war on Gaza remain a top priority. The Gulf countries have repeatedly called for ending the conflict. They have backed international and regional efforts to reach a peaceful resolution based on the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative and implementing the two-state solution.

In Lebanon, as tensions rise with Hezbollah, the Gulf countries have continued to support efforts that would bolster Lebanon’s sovereignty and stability through international coordination aimed at the implementation of UN Security Council resolution 1701.

The Gulf region is also preparing to deal with post-Assad Syria, hoping to help in the country’s reconstruction to establish it as a stable state that shuns Iranian meddling. The goal demands critical coordination with regional and international partners to ensure that stability is restored to Damascus and the entire region.

*Dr. Al-Othaimin is a researcher in foreign relations.