Iran-Pakistan Ties on Brink after Khan's Ouster

Former Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan speaks during a news conference in Islamabad, Saturday, April 23, 2022. (AP)
Former Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan speaks during a news conference in Islamabad, Saturday, April 23, 2022. (AP)
TT

Iran-Pakistan Ties on Brink after Khan's Ouster

Former Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan speaks during a news conference in Islamabad, Saturday, April 23, 2022. (AP)
Former Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan speaks during a news conference in Islamabad, Saturday, April 23, 2022. (AP)

Iran is concerned that the progress it has made in bilateral relations with Pakistan may evaporate with the ouster of prime minister Imran Khan.

Iranian experts expect new Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif to pay a visit to Iran soon as part of a revision of his predecessor's foreign policy.

Pakistan is geopolitically significant to Iran in spite of the clash of interests and political stances over regional and international issues.

These differences were highlighted in wake of the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan, Iran's signing of a strategic cooperation agreement with China, Iran's nuclear deal, American sanctions, and the Iranian Quds Forces' plans to expand its reach in the northern Indian Ocean and its backing of the Shiites in Pakistan, through the Zainebiyoun militia.

These issues pose a risk to the strategic balances of the decision-makers in Tehran.

Iranians are divided over the causes that led to Khan's ouster. The conservatives blamed it on international factors, while few have spoken about regional and local causes.

Iranian Revolutionary Guards media blamed the United States, an accusation it has made before in regards to government changes in Pakistan.

Some media reports have also said that the crisis in Pakistan will persist after Khan's exit from the scene.

Security and regional developments had taken the spotlight between Pakistan and Iran since Khan came to power. The Guards have frequently come under bloody attacks by opposition factions in Iran's volatile eastern Baluchestan region.

Iran sought to contain the situation by signing security and trade agreements with Pakistan covering the 900-km long border.

The neighbors have since opened several border crossings and set up joint markets to confront security challenges. It has apparently paid off, with less instability being reported in the region.

In spite of this perceived improvement, Iranian experts believe that with the exception of some security and political breakthroughs, Khan's government had not really developed economic relations with Tehran.

They believe that a government change in Pakistan will not lead to radical and strategic changes in relations with Tehran.

There are no differences between Iran and Pakistan, said one analyst, describing relations as strong, in spite of some tensions that may occasionally emerge, and predicting that the ties will continue in the same vein.



Nuclear Watchdog Chief Says Room to Maneuver on Iran 'Shrinking'

Rafael Grossi, chief of the IAEA, spoke to AFP on the sidelines of the UN climate summit COP29 - AFP
Rafael Grossi, chief of the IAEA, spoke to AFP on the sidelines of the UN climate summit COP29 - AFP
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Nuclear Watchdog Chief Says Room to Maneuver on Iran 'Shrinking'

Rafael Grossi, chief of the IAEA, spoke to AFP on the sidelines of the UN climate summit COP29 - AFP
Rafael Grossi, chief of the IAEA, spoke to AFP on the sidelines of the UN climate summit COP29 - AFP

The head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog warned Tuesday that "the margins for maneuver are beginning to shrink" on Iran's nuclear program ahead of an important trip to Tehran.

"The Iranian administration must understand that the international situation is becoming increasingly tense and that the margins to maneuver are beginning to shrink, and that it is imperative to find ways to reach diplomatic solutions," Rafael Grossi, told AFP in an interview at the COP29 climate summit in Baku.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is allowed to carry out inspections in Iran, he said, but "we need to see more. Given the size, depth and ambition of Iran's program, we need to find ways of giving the agency more visibility."

His visit comes after Donald Trump -- who pulled out of a hard-won nuclear deal with Iran negotiated under Barack Obama -- has been voted back into the White House.

"I already worked with the first Trump administration and we worked well together," the IAEA chief insisted.

To the dismay of many of its allies, Washington pulled out of the agreement in 2018. The deal was supposed to dismantle much of Iran's nuclear program and open it up to greater inspection in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.

- Tehran 'open' to talks -

All attempts to revive the 2015 accord -- signed with the US, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany -- have since failed.

"It's an empty shell," Grossi admitted.

Since then the Iranian nuclear program has continued to expand, even if Tehran denies it has a nuclear bomb.

The Islamic Republic has greatly increased its stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 per cent, according to the IAEA, close to the 90 percent needed to make an atomic weapon.

But since the new reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian took office in August, Tehran has indicated that it would be open to talks to resurrect the agreement.

Grossi's last visit to Iran was in May when he went to Isfahan province, home to the Natanz uranium enrichment plant.

He then urged Iran's leaders to adopt "concrete" measures to address concerns over its nuclear program and to increase cooperation with inspectors.