Senior Diplomatic Sources: An Iran Nuclear Deal is Still Possible

Deputy Secretary General of the European External Action Service (EEAS) Enrique Mora and Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani and delegations wait for the start of a meeting of the JCPOA Joint Commission in Vienna, Austria December 17, 2021. (Reuters)
Deputy Secretary General of the European External Action Service (EEAS) Enrique Mora and Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani and delegations wait for the start of a meeting of the JCPOA Joint Commission in Vienna, Austria December 17, 2021. (Reuters)
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Senior Diplomatic Sources: An Iran Nuclear Deal is Still Possible

Deputy Secretary General of the European External Action Service (EEAS) Enrique Mora and Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani and delegations wait for the start of a meeting of the JCPOA Joint Commission in Vienna, Austria December 17, 2021. (Reuters)
Deputy Secretary General of the European External Action Service (EEAS) Enrique Mora and Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani and delegations wait for the start of a meeting of the JCPOA Joint Commission in Vienna, Austria December 17, 2021. (Reuters)

Despite the clear impasse in negotiations to revive the nuclear agreement between the West and Iran, it appears that there is still hope. Senior diplomatic sources close to the Vienna talks voiced their belief to Asharq Al-Awsat that it was still “possible” to strike a deal.

Delegations participating in the Vienna negotiations left the Austrian capital on March 11 without returning to it since then. They left after an EU official announced the need to halt negotiations for “external reasons.”

What High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell meant by “external reasons” are the new demands laid out by Russia after it was sanctioned by the West for its military invasion of Ukraine.

While the Russian dilemma was soon resolved after Moscow obtained the guarantees it had requested, negotiations remained stuck without achieving any progress.

The most prominent challenge has become Iran's insistence on removing the Revolutionary Guards from the terrorism list and removing its leaders from the US sanctions list, as a condition for signing the agreement.

It seems that Iran is betting on the US submitting to its demands to avoid another crisis besides the one in Ukraine.

Nevertheless, the Biden administration has insisted since the start of negotiations with Iran that it will not lift sanctions slapped by the Trump administration if they are not directly related to the agreement.

Sanctions against the Iranian Revolutionary Guards fall into this category. Because it is classified under the sanctions related to terrorism and not nuclear activities.

While the US is conducting an internal assessment and discussion about the appropriateness of delisting the Guards as a price for reviving the nuclear agreement, the European Union continues its efforts to try to revive the agreement, the text of which is almost complete.

The EU coordinator for talks to restore the Iran nuclear deal, Enrique Mora, visited Tehran a month ago and met with Iranian officials, but he returned empty-handed.

Now, Mora is preparing to hold new bilateral meetings "soon", and he is still conducting non-stop consultations with the US and Iranian parties, senior diplomatic sources told Asharq Al-Awsat.

According to the sources, the consultations will not take place in Vienna, and that the delegations will not return to the Austrian capital unless an agreement is reached.



After Netanyahu Arrest Warrant, Israelis Fear Military Officers’ Prosecution

Israel fears its officers may also be prosecuted after an arrest warrant was issued for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Israeli Government Press Office - AFP)
Israel fears its officers may also be prosecuted after an arrest warrant was issued for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Israeli Government Press Office - AFP)
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After Netanyahu Arrest Warrant, Israelis Fear Military Officers’ Prosecution

Israel fears its officers may also be prosecuted after an arrest warrant was issued for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Israeli Government Press Office - AFP)
Israel fears its officers may also be prosecuted after an arrest warrant was issued for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Israeli Government Press Office - AFP)

Israeli leaders from both the ruling coalition and opposition have strongly reacted to the International Criminal Court’s decision to issue arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on war crimes charges related to Gaza.

While these immediate reactions dominate the news, Israel’s judicial authorities, military courts, and experts are carefully studying the decision, with growing concerns about its broader consequences.

The main concern among Israelis is that the court has determined the actions in Gaza were war crimes against humanity, including starvation, lack of medical care, and mass killings.

While Netanyahu and Gallant are seen as the key figures responsible, many others are involved. These include senior and junior military leaders, as well as soldiers who shared images on social media boasting about their actions against Palestinians.

Any of them could be arrested if complaints are made against them in other countries.

A growing network of global volunteers, including many Israeli Jews, is mobilizing against the war and its atrocities. These individuals have gathered detailed information on the officers involved, such as their identities, passport numbers, and travel plans.

This data is stored online, ready to be used if needed. They plan to use this information to push for the arrest of any officer traveling abroad.

This strategy has been tested three times in the past month. The first was in Belgium, where an Israeli-Belgian dual citizen involved in the Gaza conflict was investigated. Two weeks ago, a similar case occurred in Nicosia with an Israeli holding Cypriot citizenship.

Last week, an Israeli reserve officer was nearly arrested while on his honeymoon in Cyprus. This officer had boasted about his actions in Gaza and posted a photo saying, “We will burn Gaza to the ground.”

A Belgian organization tracked him and sought his arrest. The Israeli Mossad intervened, quickly having him deported before the arrest could happen.

In addition to these risks, Israeli officials are concerned about how the ICC ruling will affect Netanyahu’s leadership.

If the US accepts him, who else will? Which world leader will risk meeting him now? How can Netanyahu lead if he’s isolated internationally?

Experts have suggested that Israel may have to prepare for a future without Netanyahu, predicting the ICC ruling signals the beginning of the end of his leadership.