Iran Prepares for Protests Amid Fears of Nuclear Negotiations Failure

Protests in Ahwaz against water shortages (File photo: Reuters)
Protests in Ahwaz against water shortages (File photo: Reuters)
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Iran Prepares for Protests Amid Fears of Nuclear Negotiations Failure

Protests in Ahwaz against water shortages (File photo: Reuters)
Protests in Ahwaz against water shortages (File photo: Reuters)

Iranian authorities issued "secret directives" to the security and the judiciary units to prepare for public protests after an increase in food prices due to fears of the collapse of the Vienna talks, Iranian sources told Asharq Al-Awsat.

The sources said that the security services, police, riot control, the judiciary, and public prosecution offices are on alert to face possible disturbances within the next three months.

A judicial source said that the instructions refer to "more severe protests than the previous public protests," with growing public discontent, especially after increasing prices of essential food commodities.

The military and security services, especially the riot control, police stations, and checkpoints, increased their daily and night patrols at the entrances and exits of cities.

On Monday, education staff employees launched protests in dozens of Iranian cities.

The Teachers' Trade Association said that the authorities continued to arrest teachers and participants in the International Workers' Day rallies, which coincides with Teacher's Day in Iran.

Negotiations collapse

On March 11, last-minute Russian demands threatened to derail the near-complete process of reviving the Iran nuclear deal.

After the Russian issue was overcome, the negotiations faced another obstacle when Tehran demanded the US removes the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) from the list of terrorist organizations.

A source said that Iranian officials know they will not reach an agreement in the short term, and the current government prefers to continue negotiations without signing anything.

Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and his Irish counterpart Simon Coveney held a telephone conversation on Wednesday.

Abdollahian said that the US has to adopt a realistic approach and modify former US President Donald Trump's illegal behavior, and take steps in the direction of developing political initiatives.

The ministry said that Iran will continue the path of diplomacy until achieving a final agreement in the Vienna talks.

In addition to developing and proposing political initiatives, Iran has shown that it has the necessary will to reach a "good," "strong," and "lasting" agreement in the Vienna talks, the top diplomat was quoted as saying.

Coveney described Iran's initiatives in the Vienna talks as commendable, highlighting the necessity of reaching a "good" agreement through the diplomatic process that would be capable of safeguarding the interests of Tehran's interests and the other parties.

Inflation

Meanwhile, despite objections among the middle and poor classes, inflation hit the Iranian markets, which was reflected in the chants during the state rallies on the occasion of al-Quds Day.

Conservative members of the parliament criticized the cabinet last month following the new wave of inflation.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi ordered the regulatory authorities to set new measures that regulate markets and control prices.

State-owned media reported that the monetary decisions of the government led to a decline in annual inflation from about 60 percent to 46 percent in March.

Last month, the government announced it was revoking its subsidized exchange rate system for imports.

However, observers are concerned after essential commodities, especially bread, continue their upward trajectory.

The Jamejam website, affiliated with state television, quoted the Director General of the Basic Commodity Price Control at the Ministry of Agriculture as saying the news of the bread price increase was a "rumor."

Reports stated that the price of one piece of "baguette" rose from 3,000 rials to 10,000 rials. The cost of a 40kg bag of flour reached 600,000 rials, up from 260,000 rials.

The IRGC-affiliated Fars news agency said the government increased the prices of flour and pasta following a rise in global inflation due mainly to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

It is estimated that every Iranian citizen consumes half a kilogram of pasta a month.

The US dollar was selling for 28,250 rials, according to the foreign exchange site Bonbast.com.

Water Crisis

An official source, who spoke on anonymity, said the authorities fear the water crisis will coincide with deteriorating living conditions and basic goods.

A judicial source also confirmed instructions from the higher bodies regarding the possibility of protests erupting due to water scarcity in the country.

The Ministry of Energy announced that water levels in dams had decreased 60 percent before the summer season.

The Executive Director of the Water and Electricity in Ahwaz Governorate, Abbas Sadrian, said that the province's dams have 4.7 billion cubic meters, equivalent to 36 percent of the total volume of dams explaining that 64 percent of the dams' capacity is empty.

Experts warn of the dire consequences of the drought for the second year in a row in the provinces affected by the government's water policies.

Based on these estimates, officials expect the water protests to erupt in the Arab-majority province of Ahwaz in the south.

An activist said the authorities launched an intense campaign through Friday prayer sermons in the affected areas, fearing that public discontent would lead to protests.



Russia’s Top Diplomat Praises Trump’s Views on Ukraine Conflict

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov smiles during his annual news conference in Moscow, Russia, Tuesday, Jan. 14, 2025. (AP)
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov smiles during his annual news conference in Moscow, Russia, Tuesday, Jan. 14, 2025. (AP)
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Russia’s Top Diplomat Praises Trump’s Views on Ukraine Conflict

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov smiles during his annual news conference in Moscow, Russia, Tuesday, Jan. 14, 2025. (AP)
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov smiles during his annual news conference in Moscow, Russia, Tuesday, Jan. 14, 2025. (AP)

Russia’s top diplomat said Tuesday that Moscow is open for talks with President-elect Donald Trump and praised him for pointing to NATO's plan to embrace Ukraine as a root cause of the nearly 3-year-old conflict.

Any prospective peace talks should involve broader arrangements for security in Europe, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said at his annual news conference, while adding that Moscow is open to discussing security guarantees for Kyiv.

Lavrov specifically praised Trump's comments earlier this month in which he said that NATO’s plans to open its doors to Ukraine had led to the hostilities.

Trump said Russia had it "written in stone" that Ukraine's membership in NATO should never be allowed, but the Biden administration had sought to expand the military alliance to Russia's doorstep. Trump added that, "I could understand their feelings about that."

Trump's comments echoed Moscow’s rhetoric which has described its "special military operation" in Ukraine launched in February 2022 as a response to planned NATO membership for Kyiv and an effort to protect Russian speakers. Ukraine and its allies have denounced Russia's action as an unprovoked act of aggression.

"NATO did exactly what it had promised not to do, and Trump said that," Lavrov said. "It marked the first such candid acknowledgement not only from a US but any Western leader that NATO had lied when they signed numerous documents. They were used as a cover while NATO has expanded to our borders in violation of the agreements."

The West has dismissed that assessment. Before the conflict, Russia had demanded a legal guarantee that Ukraine be denied NATO entry, knowing the alliance has never excluded potential membership for any European country but had no immediate plan to start Ukraine down that road. Russia said NATO expansion would undermine its security, but Washington and its allies argued the alliance didn’t threaten Moscow

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has urged his Western allies to invite Kyiv to join NATO, or, at the very least, offer comprehensive security guarantees that would prevent any future Russian attacks. The alliance’s 32 member countries say Ukraine will join one day, but not until the fighting ends.

Trump has reaffirmed his intention to broker peace in Ukraine, declaring earlier this month that "Putin wants to meet" and that such a meeting is being set up. In the past, he has criticized US military aid for Ukraine and even vowed to end the conflict in a single day if elected.

Lavrov emphasized that Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly declared his openness for talks with Trump, adding that Moscow looks forward to hearing Trump’s view on Ukraine after he takes office.

Lavrov also praised comments by Trump's pick for national security adviser, Mike Waltz, who said Sunday it's unrealistic to expect that Ukraine could drive Russian forces "from every inch of Ukrainian soil."

"The very fact that people have increasingly started to mention the realities on the ground deserves welcome," Lavrov said during his annual news conference un Moscow.

In its final days, the Biden administration is providing Kyiv with as much military support as it can, aiming to put Ukraine in the strongest position possible for any future negotiations. The US also introduced new sanctions on Russia's oil industry.

Lavrov described those efforts as an attempt by the Biden administration to "slam the door" and leave a difficult legacy for Trump. "The Democrats have a way of screwing things up for the incoming administration," he said.

He emphasized that any prospective peace talks must address Russia's security concerns and reflect a broad European security environment.

"Threats on the western flank, on our western borders, must be eliminated as one of the main reasons (of the conflict)," he said. "They can probably be eliminated only in the context of some broader agreements."

He added that Moscow is also open to discuss security guarantees for Kyiv, "for the country, which is now called Ukraine."

Lavrov was asked about Trump's comments in which he wouldn't rule out using force or economic pressure to make Greenland — a semiautonomous territory of Denmark — a part of the United States.

Lavrov emphasized that the people of Greenland must be asked what they want.

"For a start, it's necessary to listen to the Greenlanders," Lavrov said, noting that they have the right for self-determination if they believe that their interests aren't duly represented by Denmark.