Iran Prepares for Protests Amid Fears of Nuclear Negotiations Failure

Protests in Ahwaz against water shortages (File photo: Reuters)
Protests in Ahwaz against water shortages (File photo: Reuters)
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Iran Prepares for Protests Amid Fears of Nuclear Negotiations Failure

Protests in Ahwaz against water shortages (File photo: Reuters)
Protests in Ahwaz against water shortages (File photo: Reuters)

Iranian authorities issued "secret directives" to the security and the judiciary units to prepare for public protests after an increase in food prices due to fears of the collapse of the Vienna talks, Iranian sources told Asharq Al-Awsat.

The sources said that the security services, police, riot control, the judiciary, and public prosecution offices are on alert to face possible disturbances within the next three months.

A judicial source said that the instructions refer to "more severe protests than the previous public protests," with growing public discontent, especially after increasing prices of essential food commodities.

The military and security services, especially the riot control, police stations, and checkpoints, increased their daily and night patrols at the entrances and exits of cities.

On Monday, education staff employees launched protests in dozens of Iranian cities.

The Teachers' Trade Association said that the authorities continued to arrest teachers and participants in the International Workers' Day rallies, which coincides with Teacher's Day in Iran.

Negotiations collapse

On March 11, last-minute Russian demands threatened to derail the near-complete process of reviving the Iran nuclear deal.

After the Russian issue was overcome, the negotiations faced another obstacle when Tehran demanded the US removes the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) from the list of terrorist organizations.

A source said that Iranian officials know they will not reach an agreement in the short term, and the current government prefers to continue negotiations without signing anything.

Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and his Irish counterpart Simon Coveney held a telephone conversation on Wednesday.

Abdollahian said that the US has to adopt a realistic approach and modify former US President Donald Trump's illegal behavior, and take steps in the direction of developing political initiatives.

The ministry said that Iran will continue the path of diplomacy until achieving a final agreement in the Vienna talks.

In addition to developing and proposing political initiatives, Iran has shown that it has the necessary will to reach a "good," "strong," and "lasting" agreement in the Vienna talks, the top diplomat was quoted as saying.

Coveney described Iran's initiatives in the Vienna talks as commendable, highlighting the necessity of reaching a "good" agreement through the diplomatic process that would be capable of safeguarding the interests of Tehran's interests and the other parties.

Inflation

Meanwhile, despite objections among the middle and poor classes, inflation hit the Iranian markets, which was reflected in the chants during the state rallies on the occasion of al-Quds Day.

Conservative members of the parliament criticized the cabinet last month following the new wave of inflation.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi ordered the regulatory authorities to set new measures that regulate markets and control prices.

State-owned media reported that the monetary decisions of the government led to a decline in annual inflation from about 60 percent to 46 percent in March.

Last month, the government announced it was revoking its subsidized exchange rate system for imports.

However, observers are concerned after essential commodities, especially bread, continue their upward trajectory.

The Jamejam website, affiliated with state television, quoted the Director General of the Basic Commodity Price Control at the Ministry of Agriculture as saying the news of the bread price increase was a "rumor."

Reports stated that the price of one piece of "baguette" rose from 3,000 rials to 10,000 rials. The cost of a 40kg bag of flour reached 600,000 rials, up from 260,000 rials.

The IRGC-affiliated Fars news agency said the government increased the prices of flour and pasta following a rise in global inflation due mainly to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

It is estimated that every Iranian citizen consumes half a kilogram of pasta a month.

The US dollar was selling for 28,250 rials, according to the foreign exchange site Bonbast.com.

Water Crisis

An official source, who spoke on anonymity, said the authorities fear the water crisis will coincide with deteriorating living conditions and basic goods.

A judicial source also confirmed instructions from the higher bodies regarding the possibility of protests erupting due to water scarcity in the country.

The Ministry of Energy announced that water levels in dams had decreased 60 percent before the summer season.

The Executive Director of the Water and Electricity in Ahwaz Governorate, Abbas Sadrian, said that the province's dams have 4.7 billion cubic meters, equivalent to 36 percent of the total volume of dams explaining that 64 percent of the dams' capacity is empty.

Experts warn of the dire consequences of the drought for the second year in a row in the provinces affected by the government's water policies.

Based on these estimates, officials expect the water protests to erupt in the Arab-majority province of Ahwaz in the south.

An activist said the authorities launched an intense campaign through Friday prayer sermons in the affected areas, fearing that public discontent would lead to protests.



White House Wants Deep Cut in US Funding for War Crimes Investigations

The White House in Washington. (Reuters)
The White House in Washington. (Reuters)
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White House Wants Deep Cut in US Funding for War Crimes Investigations

The White House in Washington. (Reuters)
The White House in Washington. (Reuters)

The White House has recommended terminating US funding for nearly two dozen programs that conduct war crimes and accountability work globally, including in Myanmar, Syria and on alleged Russian atrocities in Ukraine, according to three US sources familiar with the matter and internal government documents reviewed by Reuters.

The recommendation from the Office of Management and Budget, which was made on Wednesday and has not been previously reported, is not the final decision to end the programs since it gives the State Department the option to appeal.

But it sets up a potential back-and-forth between the OMB and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his aides, who will reply to OMB with their suggestions on which programs deserve to continue.

The programs also include work in Iraq, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Colombia, Belarus, Sudan, South Sudan, Afghanistan and the Gambia, according to the sources and a list seen by Reuters.

The State Department declined to comment. OMB did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The expectation that Rubio would argue for many of the programs to be continued is slim, according to three US officials. However, the top US diplomat could make a case to keep crucial programs, such as aiding potential war crimes prosecutions in Ukraine, according to one source familiar with the matter.

Several of the programs earmarked for termination operate war crimes accountability projects in Ukraine, three sources familiar with the matter said, including Global Rights Compliance, which is helping to collect evidence of war crimes and crimes against humanity across Ukraine, such as sexual violence and torture.

Another is Legal Action Worldwide, a legal aid group which supports local efforts to bring cases against Russian suspects of war crimes in Ukraine, the sources said.

Requests seeking comment from the groups were not immediately answered.

State Department bureaus that would like to preserve any war crimes and accountability programs should send their justifications by close of business day on July 11, said an internal State Department email seen by Reuters.

CHANGING PRIORITIES

Many of the programs recommended for termination are dedicated to empowering local organizations seeking to advance justice in societies that have faced atrocities, one of the sources said, adding that some programs have been going on for decades across Democratic and Republican administrations.

"Even if Secretary Rubio intervenes to save these programs, many of which he supported as a senator, there will be no one left to manage these programs," the source said.

The administration of President Donald Trump has frozen and then cut back billions of dollars of foreign aid since taking office on January 20 to ensure American-taxpayer money funds programs that are aligned with his "America First" policies.

The unprecedented cutbacks have effectively shut down its premier aid arm US Agency for International Development, jeopardized the delivery of life-saving food and medical aid and thrown global humanitarian relief operations into chaos.

The OMB recommendation is yet another sign that the administration is increasingly de-prioritizing advocacy for human rights and rule of law globally, an objective that previous US administrations have pursued.

While US foreign aid freezes had already started hampering an international effort to hold Russia responsible for alleged war crimes in Ukraine, Wednesday's recommendations raise the risk of US completely abandoning those efforts.

Among the programs that are recommended for termination is a $18 million State Department grant for Ukraine's Prosecutor General's Office that is implemented by Georgetown University's International Criminal Justice Initiative, two sources said.

An official at Georgetown declined to comment.

While the programs do not directly impact Ukraine's frontline efforts to fend off Russia's invasion, supporters say they represent the best chance of extensively documenting reported battlefield atrocities in Europe's biggest conflict since World War Two, now grinding toward a fourth year.

Ukraine has opened more than 140,000 war crime cases since Moscow's February 2022 invasion, which has killed tens of thousands, ravaged vast swathes of the country and left behind mental and physical scars from occupation. Russia consistently denies war crimes have been committed by its forces in the conflict.

PATH TO APPEAL

Other programs include one that does accountability work on Myanmar army's atrocities against Rohingya minorities as well as on the persecution of Christians and other minorities by Syria's ousted former president Bashar al-Assad, two sources said.

While the OMB recommendations could face State Department push-back, the criteria to appeal are set very strictly.

In an internal State Department email, the administration cautioned that any effort to preserve programs that were recommended to be terminated should be thoroughly argued and directly aligned with Washington's priorities.

"Bureaus must clearly and succinctly identify direct alignment to administration priorities," the email, reviewed by Reuters said.