Iran Prepares for Protests Amid Fears of Nuclear Negotiations Failure

Protests in Ahwaz against water shortages (File photo: Reuters)
Protests in Ahwaz against water shortages (File photo: Reuters)
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Iran Prepares for Protests Amid Fears of Nuclear Negotiations Failure

Protests in Ahwaz against water shortages (File photo: Reuters)
Protests in Ahwaz against water shortages (File photo: Reuters)

Iranian authorities issued "secret directives" to the security and the judiciary units to prepare for public protests after an increase in food prices due to fears of the collapse of the Vienna talks, Iranian sources told Asharq Al-Awsat.

The sources said that the security services, police, riot control, the judiciary, and public prosecution offices are on alert to face possible disturbances within the next three months.

A judicial source said that the instructions refer to "more severe protests than the previous public protests," with growing public discontent, especially after increasing prices of essential food commodities.

The military and security services, especially the riot control, police stations, and checkpoints, increased their daily and night patrols at the entrances and exits of cities.

On Monday, education staff employees launched protests in dozens of Iranian cities.

The Teachers' Trade Association said that the authorities continued to arrest teachers and participants in the International Workers' Day rallies, which coincides with Teacher's Day in Iran.

Negotiations collapse

On March 11, last-minute Russian demands threatened to derail the near-complete process of reviving the Iran nuclear deal.

After the Russian issue was overcome, the negotiations faced another obstacle when Tehran demanded the US removes the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) from the list of terrorist organizations.

A source said that Iranian officials know they will not reach an agreement in the short term, and the current government prefers to continue negotiations without signing anything.

Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and his Irish counterpart Simon Coveney held a telephone conversation on Wednesday.

Abdollahian said that the US has to adopt a realistic approach and modify former US President Donald Trump's illegal behavior, and take steps in the direction of developing political initiatives.

The ministry said that Iran will continue the path of diplomacy until achieving a final agreement in the Vienna talks.

In addition to developing and proposing political initiatives, Iran has shown that it has the necessary will to reach a "good," "strong," and "lasting" agreement in the Vienna talks, the top diplomat was quoted as saying.

Coveney described Iran's initiatives in the Vienna talks as commendable, highlighting the necessity of reaching a "good" agreement through the diplomatic process that would be capable of safeguarding the interests of Tehran's interests and the other parties.

Inflation

Meanwhile, despite objections among the middle and poor classes, inflation hit the Iranian markets, which was reflected in the chants during the state rallies on the occasion of al-Quds Day.

Conservative members of the parliament criticized the cabinet last month following the new wave of inflation.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi ordered the regulatory authorities to set new measures that regulate markets and control prices.

State-owned media reported that the monetary decisions of the government led to a decline in annual inflation from about 60 percent to 46 percent in March.

Last month, the government announced it was revoking its subsidized exchange rate system for imports.

However, observers are concerned after essential commodities, especially bread, continue their upward trajectory.

The Jamejam website, affiliated with state television, quoted the Director General of the Basic Commodity Price Control at the Ministry of Agriculture as saying the news of the bread price increase was a "rumor."

Reports stated that the price of one piece of "baguette" rose from 3,000 rials to 10,000 rials. The cost of a 40kg bag of flour reached 600,000 rials, up from 260,000 rials.

The IRGC-affiliated Fars news agency said the government increased the prices of flour and pasta following a rise in global inflation due mainly to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

It is estimated that every Iranian citizen consumes half a kilogram of pasta a month.

The US dollar was selling for 28,250 rials, according to the foreign exchange site Bonbast.com.

Water Crisis

An official source, who spoke on anonymity, said the authorities fear the water crisis will coincide with deteriorating living conditions and basic goods.

A judicial source also confirmed instructions from the higher bodies regarding the possibility of protests erupting due to water scarcity in the country.

The Ministry of Energy announced that water levels in dams had decreased 60 percent before the summer season.

The Executive Director of the Water and Electricity in Ahwaz Governorate, Abbas Sadrian, said that the province's dams have 4.7 billion cubic meters, equivalent to 36 percent of the total volume of dams explaining that 64 percent of the dams' capacity is empty.

Experts warn of the dire consequences of the drought for the second year in a row in the provinces affected by the government's water policies.

Based on these estimates, officials expect the water protests to erupt in the Arab-majority province of Ahwaz in the south.

An activist said the authorities launched an intense campaign through Friday prayer sermons in the affected areas, fearing that public discontent would lead to protests.



Somalia’s Al-Shabaab Vows to Fight Any Israeli Use of Somaliland

Residents wave Somaliland flags as they gather to celebrate Israel's announcement recognizing Somaliland's statehood in downtown Hargeisa, on December 26, 2025. (AFP)
Residents wave Somaliland flags as they gather to celebrate Israel's announcement recognizing Somaliland's statehood in downtown Hargeisa, on December 26, 2025. (AFP)
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Somalia’s Al-Shabaab Vows to Fight Any Israeli Use of Somaliland

Residents wave Somaliland flags as they gather to celebrate Israel's announcement recognizing Somaliland's statehood in downtown Hargeisa, on December 26, 2025. (AFP)
Residents wave Somaliland flags as they gather to celebrate Israel's announcement recognizing Somaliland's statehood in downtown Hargeisa, on December 26, 2025. (AFP)

Somalia's Al-Qaeda-linked militant group Al-Shabaab vowed Saturday to fight any attempt by Israel "to claim or use parts of Somaliland" following its recognition of the breakaway territory.

"We will not accept it, and we will fight against it," Al-Shabaab said in a statement.

Its spokesman Ali Dheere said in the statement that Israel's recognition of Somaliland as a sovereign state showed it "has decided to expand into parts of the Somali territories" to support "the apostate administration in the northwest regions".

Israel said Friday it was officially recognizing Somaliland, a first for the self-proclaimed republic that in 1991 declared it had unilaterally seceded from Somalia.

Mogadishu immediately denounced a "deliberate attack" on its sovereignty, while Egypt, Türkiye, the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council and the Saudi-based Organization of Islamic Cooperation all condemned Israel's move.

Regional analysts believe that a rapprochement with Somaliland could allow Israel to secure better access to the Red Sea.

In addition, press reports a few months ago said Somaliland was among a handful of African territories willing to host Palestinians expelled by Israel, but neither the Somaliland authorities nor the Israeli government has ever commented on those reports.

"It is humiliation of the highest level today, to see some Somali people celebrating a recognition by the Israeli Prime Minister (Benjamin) Netanyahu" when "Israel is the biggest enemy of the Islamic society".

The territory of Somaliland is roughly a third the size of France and corresponds more or less to the former British Somaliland protectorate.

It has its own money, army and police and enjoys relative stability compared to its neighbors.

But, until now, Somaliland had not been publicly recognized by any country, which has kept it politically and economically isolated despite its location on one of the world's busiest trade routes connecting the Indian Ocean to the Suez Canal.

Somalia has been battling Al-Shabaab for nearly 20 years and while security has significantly improved in Mogadishu, the war still rages 60 kilometers from the capital.


China Welcomes Cambodia-Thailand Ceasefire, Plans Talks

A handout photo made available by the Defense Ministry of Thailand shows Cambodian Defense Minister Tea Seiha (L) and Thai Defense Minister Natthaphon Narkphanit exchanging ceasefire agreement documents during a General Border Committee Meeting in Ban Pak Kard, Chanthaburi Province, Thailand, 27 December 2025. (EPA/Defense Ministry of Thailand/Handout)
A handout photo made available by the Defense Ministry of Thailand shows Cambodian Defense Minister Tea Seiha (L) and Thai Defense Minister Natthaphon Narkphanit exchanging ceasefire agreement documents during a General Border Committee Meeting in Ban Pak Kard, Chanthaburi Province, Thailand, 27 December 2025. (EPA/Defense Ministry of Thailand/Handout)
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China Welcomes Cambodia-Thailand Ceasefire, Plans Talks

A handout photo made available by the Defense Ministry of Thailand shows Cambodian Defense Minister Tea Seiha (L) and Thai Defense Minister Natthaphon Narkphanit exchanging ceasefire agreement documents during a General Border Committee Meeting in Ban Pak Kard, Chanthaburi Province, Thailand, 27 December 2025. (EPA/Defense Ministry of Thailand/Handout)
A handout photo made available by the Defense Ministry of Thailand shows Cambodian Defense Minister Tea Seiha (L) and Thai Defense Minister Natthaphon Narkphanit exchanging ceasefire agreement documents during a General Border Committee Meeting in Ban Pak Kard, Chanthaburi Province, Thailand, 27 December 2025. (EPA/Defense Ministry of Thailand/Handout)

China on Saturday welcomed a joint ceasefire statement signed by Cambodia and Thailand and said its foreign minister would meet his counterparts from both countries in China, according to a notice posted on the foreign ministry's website late in the day.

Cambodia and Thailand agreed ‌on Saturday to ‌a second ceasefire ‌in ⁠recent months, ‌ending weeks of intense border clashes described as the worst fighting in years between the two Southeast Asian neighbors.

China's foreign ministry said the agreement showed that dialogue and consultation ⁠were practical and effective ways to resolve ‌complex disputes.

Foreign Minister Wang ‍Yi will meet ‍Cambodian counterpart Prak Sokhonn and ‍Thailand's Sihasak Phuangketkeow in southwestern Yunnan province on December 28–29, the ministry said, adding that military representatives from all three countries would also attend.

China said it was willing to continue ⁠providing a platform and facilitating more substantive and detailed communication between Cambodia and Thailand.

"China will play a constructive role in its own way to help Cambodia and Thailand consolidate the ceasefire, resume exchanges, rebuild political mutual trust, achieve a turnaround in relations and maintain regional ‌peace," the ministry said.


Netanyahu to Meet Trump in US on Monday for Talks on Iran, Gaza, Hezbollah, Syria

 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a joint press conference with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides (not pictured) after a trilateral meeting in Jerusalem on December 22, 2025. (AFP)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a joint press conference with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides (not pictured) after a trilateral meeting in Jerusalem on December 22, 2025. (AFP)
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Netanyahu to Meet Trump in US on Monday for Talks on Iran, Gaza, Hezbollah, Syria

 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a joint press conference with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides (not pictured) after a trilateral meeting in Jerusalem on December 22, 2025. (AFP)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a joint press conference with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides (not pictured) after a trilateral meeting in Jerusalem on December 22, 2025. (AFP)

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is due to meet US President Donald Trump in Florida on Monday, an Israeli official told AFP, in what is seen as a crucial visit for the next steps of the fragile Gaza truce plan.

It will be Netanyahu's fifth visit to see key ally Trump in the United States this year.

His trip comes as the Trump administration and regional mediators push to proceed to the second stage of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

An Israeli official on Saturday said Netanyahu would leave for the US on December 28 and meet with Trump a day later in Florida, without providing a specific location.

Trump told reporters in mid-December that Netanyahu would probably visit him in Florida during the Christmas holidays.

"He would like to see me. We haven't set it up formally, but he'd like to see me," Trump said before leaving for his Mar-a-Lago resort.

Israel's Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper reported on Wednesday that a wide range of regional issues was expected to be discussed, including Iran, talks on an Israel-Syria security agreement, the ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon and the next stages of the Gaza deal.

- 'Going nowhere' -

Concerning Gaza, the timing of the meeting is "very significant", said Gershon Baskin, the co-head of peacebuilding commission the Alliance for Two States, who has taken part in back-channel negotiations with Hamas.

"Phase one is basically over, there's one remaining Israeli deceased hostage which they (Hamas) are having difficulty finding," he told AFP.

"Phase two has to begin, it's even late and I think the Americans realize that it's late because Hamas has had too much time to re-establish its presence and this is certainly not a situation that the Americans want to leave in place," he added.

Progress in moving to the second phase of October's Gaza ceasefire agreement, which was brokered by Washington and its regional allies, has so far been slow.

Both sides allege frequent ceasefire violations and mediators fear that Israel and Hamas alike are stalling.

Under the next stages, Israel is supposed to withdraw from its positions in Gaza, an interim authority is to govern the Palestinian territory instead of Hamas, and an international stabilization force (ISF) is to be deployed.

It also includes a provision for Palestinian movement Hamas to lay down its weapons -- a major sticking point.

On Friday, US news outlet Axios reported that the meeting between Trump and Netanyahu was key to advancing to the next steps of the deal.

Citing White House officials, Axios said that the Trump administration wanted to announce the Palestinian technocratic government for Gaza and the ISF as soon as possible.

It reported that senior Trump officials were growing exasperated "as Netanyahu has taken steps to undermine the fragile ceasefire and stall the peace process".

"There are more and more signs that the American administration is getting frustrated with Netanyahu," said Yossi Mekelberg, a Middle East expert at London-based think-tank Chatham House.

"The question is what it's going to do about it," he added, "because phase two is right now going nowhere."

- Iran tops agenda -

While the Trump administration is keen for progress on Gaza, analysts said the prospect of Iran rebuilding its nuclear program and ballistic missile capabilities was likely to top the agenda for Netanyahu.

"All the news that we've heard in the Israeli media over the last two weeks about Iran building up its missiles and being a threat to Israel is all part of a planned strategy of deflecting attention from Gaza to the issue that Netanyahu loves to talk about which is Iran," said Baskin.

In June, Israel launched strikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites as well as residential areas.

Iran responded with drone and missile strikes on Israel, and later on in the 12-day war, the United States joined Israel in targeting Iranian nuclear facilities.

Mekelberg shared the view that Netanyahu could be attempting to shift attention from Gaza onto Iran.

With Israel entering an election year, Mekelberg said with regards to the Trump meeting, Netanyahu would be "taking a defensive approach, to minimize what can be difficult for him coming back home".

"Everything is connected to staying in power," he said of the long-time Israeli premier.