Iran Prepares for Protests Amid Fears of Nuclear Negotiations Failure

Protests in Ahwaz against water shortages (File photo: Reuters)
Protests in Ahwaz against water shortages (File photo: Reuters)
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Iran Prepares for Protests Amid Fears of Nuclear Negotiations Failure

Protests in Ahwaz against water shortages (File photo: Reuters)
Protests in Ahwaz against water shortages (File photo: Reuters)

Iranian authorities issued "secret directives" to the security and the judiciary units to prepare for public protests after an increase in food prices due to fears of the collapse of the Vienna talks, Iranian sources told Asharq Al-Awsat.

The sources said that the security services, police, riot control, the judiciary, and public prosecution offices are on alert to face possible disturbances within the next three months.

A judicial source said that the instructions refer to "more severe protests than the previous public protests," with growing public discontent, especially after increasing prices of essential food commodities.

The military and security services, especially the riot control, police stations, and checkpoints, increased their daily and night patrols at the entrances and exits of cities.

On Monday, education staff employees launched protests in dozens of Iranian cities.

The Teachers' Trade Association said that the authorities continued to arrest teachers and participants in the International Workers' Day rallies, which coincides with Teacher's Day in Iran.

Negotiations collapse

On March 11, last-minute Russian demands threatened to derail the near-complete process of reviving the Iran nuclear deal.

After the Russian issue was overcome, the negotiations faced another obstacle when Tehran demanded the US removes the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) from the list of terrorist organizations.

A source said that Iranian officials know they will not reach an agreement in the short term, and the current government prefers to continue negotiations without signing anything.

Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and his Irish counterpart Simon Coveney held a telephone conversation on Wednesday.

Abdollahian said that the US has to adopt a realistic approach and modify former US President Donald Trump's illegal behavior, and take steps in the direction of developing political initiatives.

The ministry said that Iran will continue the path of diplomacy until achieving a final agreement in the Vienna talks.

In addition to developing and proposing political initiatives, Iran has shown that it has the necessary will to reach a "good," "strong," and "lasting" agreement in the Vienna talks, the top diplomat was quoted as saying.

Coveney described Iran's initiatives in the Vienna talks as commendable, highlighting the necessity of reaching a "good" agreement through the diplomatic process that would be capable of safeguarding the interests of Tehran's interests and the other parties.

Inflation

Meanwhile, despite objections among the middle and poor classes, inflation hit the Iranian markets, which was reflected in the chants during the state rallies on the occasion of al-Quds Day.

Conservative members of the parliament criticized the cabinet last month following the new wave of inflation.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi ordered the regulatory authorities to set new measures that regulate markets and control prices.

State-owned media reported that the monetary decisions of the government led to a decline in annual inflation from about 60 percent to 46 percent in March.

Last month, the government announced it was revoking its subsidized exchange rate system for imports.

However, observers are concerned after essential commodities, especially bread, continue their upward trajectory.

The Jamejam website, affiliated with state television, quoted the Director General of the Basic Commodity Price Control at the Ministry of Agriculture as saying the news of the bread price increase was a "rumor."

Reports stated that the price of one piece of "baguette" rose from 3,000 rials to 10,000 rials. The cost of a 40kg bag of flour reached 600,000 rials, up from 260,000 rials.

The IRGC-affiliated Fars news agency said the government increased the prices of flour and pasta following a rise in global inflation due mainly to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

It is estimated that every Iranian citizen consumes half a kilogram of pasta a month.

The US dollar was selling for 28,250 rials, according to the foreign exchange site Bonbast.com.

Water Crisis

An official source, who spoke on anonymity, said the authorities fear the water crisis will coincide with deteriorating living conditions and basic goods.

A judicial source also confirmed instructions from the higher bodies regarding the possibility of protests erupting due to water scarcity in the country.

The Ministry of Energy announced that water levels in dams had decreased 60 percent before the summer season.

The Executive Director of the Water and Electricity in Ahwaz Governorate, Abbas Sadrian, said that the province's dams have 4.7 billion cubic meters, equivalent to 36 percent of the total volume of dams explaining that 64 percent of the dams' capacity is empty.

Experts warn of the dire consequences of the drought for the second year in a row in the provinces affected by the government's water policies.

Based on these estimates, officials expect the water protests to erupt in the Arab-majority province of Ahwaz in the south.

An activist said the authorities launched an intense campaign through Friday prayer sermons in the affected areas, fearing that public discontent would lead to protests.



US Military Expands Iran Blockade to Include Contraband Shipments

FILE PHOTO: Two F/A-18 Super Hornets launch from the flight deck of the US Navy Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln in support of the Operation Epic Fury attack on Iran from an undisclosed location March 3, 2026. US Navy/Handout via REUTERS
FILE PHOTO: Two F/A-18 Super Hornets launch from the flight deck of the US Navy Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln in support of the Operation Epic Fury attack on Iran from an undisclosed location March 3, 2026. US Navy/Handout via REUTERS
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US Military Expands Iran Blockade to Include Contraband Shipments

FILE PHOTO: Two F/A-18 Super Hornets launch from the flight deck of the US Navy Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln in support of the Operation Epic Fury attack on Iran from an undisclosed location March 3, 2026. US Navy/Handout via REUTERS
FILE PHOTO: Two F/A-18 Super Hornets launch from the flight deck of the US Navy Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln in support of the Operation Epic Fury attack on Iran from an undisclosed location March 3, 2026. US Navy/Handout via REUTERS

The US Navy said on Thursday the military had expanded a maritime blockade on Iran to include “contraband” shipments, adding that any vessel suspected of heading to Iranian territory would be subject to verification and inspection.

“These vessels, regardless of their location, are subject to boarding, inspection and seizure of cargo,” the Navy said in a statement updated after the blockade was imposed on Monday, according to Reuters.

Contraband includes weapons, weapons systems, ammunition, nuclear materials, crude oil and refined petroleum products, as well as iron, steel and aluminum.

As diplomatic activity intensifies, signals remain mixed over the course of US-Iran talks. A date for a second round of negotiations has yet to be set, with disagreements persisting over the nuclear file and sensitive issues related to highly enriched uranium and the duration of restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program.


IEA Chief Says Europe Has 'Maybe 6 Weeks or So' of Jet Fuel Left

 Aircraft pass behind kerosene storage facilities at Liege Airport in Liege, Belgium, 16 April 2026.  EPA/Olivier Hoslet
Aircraft pass behind kerosene storage facilities at Liege Airport in Liege, Belgium, 16 April 2026. EPA/Olivier Hoslet
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IEA Chief Says Europe Has 'Maybe 6 Weeks or So' of Jet Fuel Left

 Aircraft pass behind kerosene storage facilities at Liege Airport in Liege, Belgium, 16 April 2026.  EPA/Olivier Hoslet
Aircraft pass behind kerosene storage facilities at Liege Airport in Liege, Belgium, 16 April 2026. EPA/Olivier Hoslet

Europe has “maybe six weeks or so (of) jet fuel left,” the head of the International Energy Agency said Thursday in a wide-ranging Associated Press interview, warning of possible flight cancellations “soon” if oil supplies remain blocked by the Iran war.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol painted a sobering picture of the global repercussions of what he called “the largest energy crisis we have ever faced,” stemming from the pinch-off of oil, gas and other vital supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
“In the past there was a group called ‘Dire Straits.’ It’s a dire strait now, and it is going to have major implications for the global economy. And the longer it goes, the worse it will be for the economic growth and inflation around the world,” he said.
The impact will be “higher petrol (gasoline) prices, higher gas prices, high electricity prices,” Birol told the AP, speaking in his Paris office looking out over the Eiffel Tower.
No country is immune Economic pain will be felt unevenly and "the countries who will suffer the most will not be those whose voice are heard a lot. It will be mainly the developing countries. Poorer countries in Asia, in Africa and in Latin America,” said the Turkish economist and energy expert who has led the IEA since 2015.
But without a settlement of the Iran war that permanently reopens the Strait of Hormuz, “Everybody is going to suffer,” he added.
“Some countries may be richer than the others. Some countries may have more energy than the others, but no country, no country is immune to this crisis," he said.
Without a reopening of the waterway, some oil products may dry up, he warned.
In Europe, “I can tell you soon we will hear the news that some of the flights from city A to city B might be canceled as a result of lack of jet fuel," he said.
Hormuz tolls a risk for the future Birol spoke out against the so-called “toll booth” system that Iran has applied to some ships, letting them travel through the strait for a fee. He said allowing that to become more permanent would run the risk of setting a precedent that could then be applied to other waterways, including the vital Malacca Strait in Asia.
“If we change it once, it may be difficult to get it back,” he said. “It will be difficult to have a toll system here, applied here, but not there.”
“I would like to see that the oil flows unconditionally from the point A to point B,” he said.
Even with a peace deal, strikes on energy facilities means it could be many months before pre-war production levels are restored, he said.
“Over 80 key assets in the region have been damaged. And out of these 80, more than one third are severely or very severely damaged,” he said.
“It will be extremely optimistic to believe that it will very quick," Birol said. “It will take gradually, gradually, up to two years to come back where we were before the war.”


EU, NATO to Work to Strengthen Relationship, Von der Leyen Says 

FILE PHOTO: A NATO flag flutters at the Tapa military base, Estonia April 30, 2023. REUTERS/Ints Kalnins/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A NATO flag flutters at the Tapa military base, Estonia April 30, 2023. REUTERS/Ints Kalnins/File Photo
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EU, NATO to Work to Strengthen Relationship, Von der Leyen Says 

FILE PHOTO: A NATO flag flutters at the Tapa military base, Estonia April 30, 2023. REUTERS/Ints Kalnins/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A NATO flag flutters at the Tapa military base, Estonia April 30, 2023. REUTERS/Ints Kalnins/File Photo

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Thursday that she agreed with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte to work in the coming weeks to strengthen the European Union's relationship with the military alliance.

"We discussed the upcoming NATO Summit and how we can upscale defense industrial output in Europe," von der Leyen said in a post on social media platform X after meeting Rutte in Brussels, Reuters reported.

"We need to invest more, to produce more and to do both faster. With the rise in global security threats, we agreed to work closely together in the next weeks to strengthen the EU-NATO relationship and prepare a successful Summit in Ankara," she added.

Rutte said in a post about his discussion with von der Leyen that "a stronger Europe means a stronger NATO".