Iran Prepares for Protests Amid Fears of Nuclear Negotiations Failure

Protests in Ahwaz against water shortages (File photo: Reuters)
Protests in Ahwaz against water shortages (File photo: Reuters)
TT

Iran Prepares for Protests Amid Fears of Nuclear Negotiations Failure

Protests in Ahwaz against water shortages (File photo: Reuters)
Protests in Ahwaz against water shortages (File photo: Reuters)

Iranian authorities issued "secret directives" to the security and the judiciary units to prepare for public protests after an increase in food prices due to fears of the collapse of the Vienna talks, Iranian sources told Asharq Al-Awsat.

The sources said that the security services, police, riot control, the judiciary, and public prosecution offices are on alert to face possible disturbances within the next three months.

A judicial source said that the instructions refer to "more severe protests than the previous public protests," with growing public discontent, especially after increasing prices of essential food commodities.

The military and security services, especially the riot control, police stations, and checkpoints, increased their daily and night patrols at the entrances and exits of cities.

On Monday, education staff employees launched protests in dozens of Iranian cities.

The Teachers' Trade Association said that the authorities continued to arrest teachers and participants in the International Workers' Day rallies, which coincides with Teacher's Day in Iran.

Negotiations collapse

On March 11, last-minute Russian demands threatened to derail the near-complete process of reviving the Iran nuclear deal.

After the Russian issue was overcome, the negotiations faced another obstacle when Tehran demanded the US removes the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) from the list of terrorist organizations.

A source said that Iranian officials know they will not reach an agreement in the short term, and the current government prefers to continue negotiations without signing anything.

Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and his Irish counterpart Simon Coveney held a telephone conversation on Wednesday.

Abdollahian said that the US has to adopt a realistic approach and modify former US President Donald Trump's illegal behavior, and take steps in the direction of developing political initiatives.

The ministry said that Iran will continue the path of diplomacy until achieving a final agreement in the Vienna talks.

In addition to developing and proposing political initiatives, Iran has shown that it has the necessary will to reach a "good," "strong," and "lasting" agreement in the Vienna talks, the top diplomat was quoted as saying.

Coveney described Iran's initiatives in the Vienna talks as commendable, highlighting the necessity of reaching a "good" agreement through the diplomatic process that would be capable of safeguarding the interests of Tehran's interests and the other parties.

Inflation

Meanwhile, despite objections among the middle and poor classes, inflation hit the Iranian markets, which was reflected in the chants during the state rallies on the occasion of al-Quds Day.

Conservative members of the parliament criticized the cabinet last month following the new wave of inflation.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi ordered the regulatory authorities to set new measures that regulate markets and control prices.

State-owned media reported that the monetary decisions of the government led to a decline in annual inflation from about 60 percent to 46 percent in March.

Last month, the government announced it was revoking its subsidized exchange rate system for imports.

However, observers are concerned after essential commodities, especially bread, continue their upward trajectory.

The Jamejam website, affiliated with state television, quoted the Director General of the Basic Commodity Price Control at the Ministry of Agriculture as saying the news of the bread price increase was a "rumor."

Reports stated that the price of one piece of "baguette" rose from 3,000 rials to 10,000 rials. The cost of a 40kg bag of flour reached 600,000 rials, up from 260,000 rials.

The IRGC-affiliated Fars news agency said the government increased the prices of flour and pasta following a rise in global inflation due mainly to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

It is estimated that every Iranian citizen consumes half a kilogram of pasta a month.

The US dollar was selling for 28,250 rials, according to the foreign exchange site Bonbast.com.

Water Crisis

An official source, who spoke on anonymity, said the authorities fear the water crisis will coincide with deteriorating living conditions and basic goods.

A judicial source also confirmed instructions from the higher bodies regarding the possibility of protests erupting due to water scarcity in the country.

The Ministry of Energy announced that water levels in dams had decreased 60 percent before the summer season.

The Executive Director of the Water and Electricity in Ahwaz Governorate, Abbas Sadrian, said that the province's dams have 4.7 billion cubic meters, equivalent to 36 percent of the total volume of dams explaining that 64 percent of the dams' capacity is empty.

Experts warn of the dire consequences of the drought for the second year in a row in the provinces affected by the government's water policies.

Based on these estimates, officials expect the water protests to erupt in the Arab-majority province of Ahwaz in the south.

An activist said the authorities launched an intense campaign through Friday prayer sermons in the affected areas, fearing that public discontent would lead to protests.



China, Russia and Iran Join South Africa for Naval Drills as Tensions Run High

 The Chinese guided-missile destroyer Tangshan, left, and the Russian corvette Stoikiy, right, in the Simon's Town harbor, in Cape Town, South Africa, Friday, Jan. 9, 2026. (AP)
The Chinese guided-missile destroyer Tangshan, left, and the Russian corvette Stoikiy, right, in the Simon's Town harbor, in Cape Town, South Africa, Friday, Jan. 9, 2026. (AP)
TT

China, Russia and Iran Join South Africa for Naval Drills as Tensions Run High

 The Chinese guided-missile destroyer Tangshan, left, and the Russian corvette Stoikiy, right, in the Simon's Town harbor, in Cape Town, South Africa, Friday, Jan. 9, 2026. (AP)
The Chinese guided-missile destroyer Tangshan, left, and the Russian corvette Stoikiy, right, in the Simon's Town harbor, in Cape Town, South Africa, Friday, Jan. 9, 2026. (AP)

Chinese, Russian and Iranian warships launched a week of naval drills with host South Africa off the Cape Town coast Friday as geopolitical tensions run high over the United States' intervention in Venezuela and its move to seize tankers carrying Venezuelan oil.

The Chinese-led drills were organized last year under the BRICS bloc of developing nations and South Africa's armed forces said the maneuvers will practice maritime safety and anti-piracy operations and “deepen cooperation.”

China, Russia and South Africa are longtime members of BRICS, while Iran joined the group in 2024.

The Iranian navy was taking part in the drills while protests grow back home against the country's leadership.

It was not immediately clear if other countries from the BRICS group would take part in the drills. A spokesperson for the South African armed forces said he wasn't yet able to confirm all the countries participating in the drills, which are due to run until next Friday.

Chinese, Russian and Iranian ships were seen moving in and out of the harbor that serves South Africa's top naval base in Simon's Town, south of Cape Town, where the Indian Ocean meets the Atlantic Ocean. China's ships include the Tangshan, a 161-meter (528-foot) -long destroyer class vessel. Russia's Baltic Fleet said it sent a smaller warship, the Stoikiy, and a replenishment tanker to South Africa.

South Africa also hosted Chinese and Russian ships for navy drills in 2023.

The latest drills were meant to happen in late November but were delayed for diplomatic reasons because South Africa hosted Western and other world leaders for the Group of 20 summit around the same time.

The drills are bound to further strain ties between the US and South Africa, which is the most advanced economy in Africa and a leading voice for the continent but has been especially targeted for criticism by the Trump administration.

US President Donald Trump said in an executive order in February that South Africa supports "bad actors on the world stage" and singled out its ties with Iran as one of the reasons for the US cutting funding to the country. China and Russia have often used BRICS forums to launch criticism of the US and the West.

South Africa has long claimed it follows a nonaligned foreign policy and remains neutral, but Russian presence on the southern tip of Africa has strained its relationship with the US before. The Biden administration accused South Africa in 2023 of allowing a sanctioned Russian ship to dock at the Simon's Town naval base and load weapons to be taken to Russia for the war in Ukraine. South Africa denied the allegation.

South Africa's willingness to host Russian and Iranian warships has also been criticized inside the country. The Democratic Alliance, the second biggest political party in the coalition government, said it was opposed to hosting drills that included “heavily sanctioned” Russia and Iran.

“Calling these drills ‘BRICS cooperation’ is a political trick to soften what is really happening: Government is choosing closer military ties with rogue and sanctioned states such as Russia and Iran,” the Democratic Alliance said.


Iran Shuts off Internet as Protests Blaze Across Country

 This frame grab from a video released by Iran state TV shows vehicles burning amid night of mass protests in Tehran, Iran, Thursday, Jan. 8, 2026. (Iran state TV via AP)
This frame grab from a video released by Iran state TV shows vehicles burning amid night of mass protests in Tehran, Iran, Thursday, Jan. 8, 2026. (Iran state TV via AP)
TT

Iran Shuts off Internet as Protests Blaze Across Country

 This frame grab from a video released by Iran state TV shows vehicles burning amid night of mass protests in Tehran, Iran, Thursday, Jan. 8, 2026. (Iran state TV via AP)
This frame grab from a video released by Iran state TV shows vehicles burning amid night of mass protests in Tehran, Iran, Thursday, Jan. 8, 2026. (Iran state TV via AP)

Iran was largely cut off from the outside world on Friday after authorities blacked out the internet to curb growing unrest, as video showed buildings aflame in anti-government protests raging in cities across the country. 

Rights groups have already documented dozens of deaths of protesters in nearly two weeks and, with Iranian state TV showing clashes and fires, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported that several police officers had been killed overnight. 

In a televised address, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei vowed not to back down, accusing demonstrators of acting on behalf of émigré opposition groups and the United States, and a public prosecutor threatened death sentences. 

DOZENS KILLED IN TWO WEEKS OF PROTEST 

The protests pose the biggest internal challenge in at least three years to Iran's clerical rulers, who look more vulnerable than during past bouts of unrest amid a dire economic situation and after last year's war with Israel and the United States. 

While the initial protests were focused on the economy, with the rial currency losing half its value against the dollar last year and inflation topping 40% in December, they have morphed to include slogans aimed directly at the authorities. 

Iranian rights ‌group HRANA said ‌on Friday it had documented the deaths of at least 62 people including 14 security personnel and ‌48 ⁠protesters since demonstrations began ‌on December 28. 

The internet blackout has sharply reduced the amount of information flowing out of the country. Phone calls into Iran were not getting through. At least 17 flights between Dubai and Iran were cancelled, Dubai Airport's website showed. 

Images published by state television overnight showed what it said were burning buses, cars and motorbikes as well as fires at underground railway stations and banks. 

Videos verified by Reuters as having been taken in the capital Tehran showed hundreds of people marching. In one of the videos, a woman could be heard shouting "Death to Khamenei!" 

Other chants included slogans in support of the monarchy. 

Iranian rights group Hengaw reported that a protest march after Friday prayers in Zahedan, where the Baluch minority predominates, was met with gunfire that wounded several people. 

Authorities have tried a dual approach - describing protests over the economy as ⁠legitimate while condemning what they call violent rioters and cracking down with security forces. 

Last week President Masoud Pezeshkian urged authorities to take a "kind and responsible approach", and the government offered modest financial incentives to help ‌counter worsening impoverishment as inflation has soared. 

But with unrest spreading and clashes appearing more violent, the ‍Supreme Leader, the ultimate authority in Iran, above the elected president and ‍parliament, used much tougher language on Friday. 

"The Islamic Republic came to power through the blood of hundreds of thousands of honorable people. It will not ‍back down in the face of vandals," he said, accusing those involved in unrest of seeking to please US President Donald Trump. 

Tehran's public prosecutor said those committing sabotage, burning public property or engaging in clashes with security forces would face the death penalty. 

FRAGMENTED OPPOSITION 

Iran's fragmented external opposition factions called for more protests, and demonstrators have chanted slogans including "Death to the dictator!" and praising the monarchy that was overthrown in 1979. 

Reza Pahlavi, exiled son of the late shah, told Iranians in a social media post: "The eyes of the world are upon you. Take to the streets." 

However, the extent of support inside Iran for the monarchy or for the MKO, the most vocal of émigré opposition groups, is disputed. A spokesperson for the MKO said units with the group had taken ⁠part in the protests. 

"The sense of hopelessness in Iranian society is something today that we haven't seen before. I mean, that sense of anger has just deepened over the years and we are at record new levels in terms of how Iranian society is upset," said Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute in Washington. 

Trump, who bombed Iran last summer and warned Tehran last week that the US could come to the protesters' aid, said on Friday he would not meet Pahlavi and was "not sure that it would be appropriate" to support him. 

Despite the increased pressure, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Friday the chance of foreign military intervention in Iran was "very low". He said the foreign minister of Oman, which has often interceded in negotiations between Iran and the West, would visit on Saturday. 

UN rights chief Volker Turk said he was "deeply disturbed by reports of violence" and by communications shutdowns. 

Iran has weathered repeated bouts of major nationwide unrest across the decades, including student protests in 1999, mass demonstrations over a disputed election outcome in 2009, demonstrations over economic hardships in 2019, and the Woman, Life, Freedom protests in 2022. 

The 2022 protests, sparked by the killing of a young woman in the custody of Iran's religious morality police, drew a large variety of people onto the ‌streets, with men and women, old and young, rich and poor. 

They were ultimately suppressed, with hundreds of people reported killed and thousands imprisoned, but authorities also subsequently ceded some ground with women now routinely disobeying public dress codes. 


US Announces Aid to Bolster Thailand, Cambodia Truce

This handout photograph taken and released by Agence Kampuchea Press (AKP) on January 2, 2026 shows a general view of damaged houses following clashes between Cambodian and Thai soldiers, in Chouk Chey village in Banteay Meanchey province. (Agence Kampuchea Press (AKP) / AFP)
This handout photograph taken and released by Agence Kampuchea Press (AKP) on January 2, 2026 shows a general view of damaged houses following clashes between Cambodian and Thai soldiers, in Chouk Chey village in Banteay Meanchey province. (Agence Kampuchea Press (AKP) / AFP)
TT

US Announces Aid to Bolster Thailand, Cambodia Truce

This handout photograph taken and released by Agence Kampuchea Press (AKP) on January 2, 2026 shows a general view of damaged houses following clashes between Cambodian and Thai soldiers, in Chouk Chey village in Banteay Meanchey province. (Agence Kampuchea Press (AKP) / AFP)
This handout photograph taken and released by Agence Kampuchea Press (AKP) on January 2, 2026 shows a general view of damaged houses following clashes between Cambodian and Thai soldiers, in Chouk Chey village in Banteay Meanchey province. (Agence Kampuchea Press (AKP) / AFP)

The United States on Friday announced some $45 million in aid as it tries to bolster a fragile truce between Thailand and Cambodia.

Michael DeSombre, the top State Department official for East Asia, was visiting Thailand and Cambodia to discuss ways to strengthen the ceasefire, which President Donald Trump has sought to highlight as an achievement.

DeSombre said the United States would offer $20 million to help both countries combat drug trafficking and cyber scams, which have become a major concern in Cambodia.

He also said the United States would give $15 million to help support people displaced by the recent fighting as well as $10 million for demining, AFP said.

"The United States will continue to support the Cambodian and Thai governments as they implement the Kuala Lumpur Peace Accords and pave the way for a return to peace, prosperity and stability for their people and the region," DeSombre said in a statement.

He was referring to an agreement signed between the two countries in the presence of Trump during an October visit to Malaysia, then head of the ASEAN regional bloc.

Major new clashes erupted last month. The two sides reached a truce on December 27 after three weeks of fighting, although Thailand accused Cambodia of violating in apparent accidental fire.

Cambodia has called on Thailand to pull out its forces from several border areas that Phnom Penh claims as its own.

The nations' long-standing conflict stems from a dispute over the colonial-era demarcation of their 800-kilometer (500-mile) border, where both sides claim territory and centuries-old temple ruins.

Trump has listed the conflict as one of a number of wars he says he has solved as he loudly insists he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize.

Trump on taking office drastically slashed foreign aid, including for months freezing longstanding assistance to Cambodia for demining, with the administration saying it will provide money only in support of narrow US interests.