Iran Prepares for Protests Amid Fears of Nuclear Negotiations Failure

Protests in Ahwaz against water shortages (File photo: Reuters)
Protests in Ahwaz against water shortages (File photo: Reuters)
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Iran Prepares for Protests Amid Fears of Nuclear Negotiations Failure

Protests in Ahwaz against water shortages (File photo: Reuters)
Protests in Ahwaz against water shortages (File photo: Reuters)

Iranian authorities issued "secret directives" to the security and the judiciary units to prepare for public protests after an increase in food prices due to fears of the collapse of the Vienna talks, Iranian sources told Asharq Al-Awsat.

The sources said that the security services, police, riot control, the judiciary, and public prosecution offices are on alert to face possible disturbances within the next three months.

A judicial source said that the instructions refer to "more severe protests than the previous public protests," with growing public discontent, especially after increasing prices of essential food commodities.

The military and security services, especially the riot control, police stations, and checkpoints, increased their daily and night patrols at the entrances and exits of cities.

On Monday, education staff employees launched protests in dozens of Iranian cities.

The Teachers' Trade Association said that the authorities continued to arrest teachers and participants in the International Workers' Day rallies, which coincides with Teacher's Day in Iran.

Negotiations collapse

On March 11, last-minute Russian demands threatened to derail the near-complete process of reviving the Iran nuclear deal.

After the Russian issue was overcome, the negotiations faced another obstacle when Tehran demanded the US removes the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) from the list of terrorist organizations.

A source said that Iranian officials know they will not reach an agreement in the short term, and the current government prefers to continue negotiations without signing anything.

Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and his Irish counterpart Simon Coveney held a telephone conversation on Wednesday.

Abdollahian said that the US has to adopt a realistic approach and modify former US President Donald Trump's illegal behavior, and take steps in the direction of developing political initiatives.

The ministry said that Iran will continue the path of diplomacy until achieving a final agreement in the Vienna talks.

In addition to developing and proposing political initiatives, Iran has shown that it has the necessary will to reach a "good," "strong," and "lasting" agreement in the Vienna talks, the top diplomat was quoted as saying.

Coveney described Iran's initiatives in the Vienna talks as commendable, highlighting the necessity of reaching a "good" agreement through the diplomatic process that would be capable of safeguarding the interests of Tehran's interests and the other parties.

Inflation

Meanwhile, despite objections among the middle and poor classes, inflation hit the Iranian markets, which was reflected in the chants during the state rallies on the occasion of al-Quds Day.

Conservative members of the parliament criticized the cabinet last month following the new wave of inflation.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi ordered the regulatory authorities to set new measures that regulate markets and control prices.

State-owned media reported that the monetary decisions of the government led to a decline in annual inflation from about 60 percent to 46 percent in March.

Last month, the government announced it was revoking its subsidized exchange rate system for imports.

However, observers are concerned after essential commodities, especially bread, continue their upward trajectory.

The Jamejam website, affiliated with state television, quoted the Director General of the Basic Commodity Price Control at the Ministry of Agriculture as saying the news of the bread price increase was a "rumor."

Reports stated that the price of one piece of "baguette" rose from 3,000 rials to 10,000 rials. The cost of a 40kg bag of flour reached 600,000 rials, up from 260,000 rials.

The IRGC-affiliated Fars news agency said the government increased the prices of flour and pasta following a rise in global inflation due mainly to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

It is estimated that every Iranian citizen consumes half a kilogram of pasta a month.

The US dollar was selling for 28,250 rials, according to the foreign exchange site Bonbast.com.

Water Crisis

An official source, who spoke on anonymity, said the authorities fear the water crisis will coincide with deteriorating living conditions and basic goods.

A judicial source also confirmed instructions from the higher bodies regarding the possibility of protests erupting due to water scarcity in the country.

The Ministry of Energy announced that water levels in dams had decreased 60 percent before the summer season.

The Executive Director of the Water and Electricity in Ahwaz Governorate, Abbas Sadrian, said that the province's dams have 4.7 billion cubic meters, equivalent to 36 percent of the total volume of dams explaining that 64 percent of the dams' capacity is empty.

Experts warn of the dire consequences of the drought for the second year in a row in the provinces affected by the government's water policies.

Based on these estimates, officials expect the water protests to erupt in the Arab-majority province of Ahwaz in the south.

An activist said the authorities launched an intense campaign through Friday prayer sermons in the affected areas, fearing that public discontent would lead to protests.



Iran Warns US Troops, Israel Will Be Targets if America Strikes

FILE PHOTO: Protesters gather as vehicles burn, amid evolving anti-government unrest, in Tehran, Iran, in this screen grab obtained from a social media video released on January 9, 2026. Social Media/via REUTERS/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Protesters gather as vehicles burn, amid evolving anti-government unrest, in Tehran, Iran, in this screen grab obtained from a social media video released on January 9, 2026. Social Media/via REUTERS/File Photo
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Iran Warns US Troops, Israel Will Be Targets if America Strikes

FILE PHOTO: Protesters gather as vehicles burn, amid evolving anti-government unrest, in Tehran, Iran, in this screen grab obtained from a social media video released on January 9, 2026. Social Media/via REUTERS/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Protesters gather as vehicles burn, amid evolving anti-government unrest, in Tehran, Iran, in this screen grab obtained from a social media video released on January 9, 2026. Social Media/via REUTERS/File Photo

Nationwide protests challenging Iran’s regime saw protesters flood the streets in the country’s capital and its second-largest city into Sunday, crossing the two-week mark as violence surrounding the demonstrations has killed at least 116 people, activists said.

With the internet down in Iran and phone lines cut off, gauging the demonstrations from abroad has grown more difficult. But the death toll in the protests has grown, while 2,600 others have been detained, according to the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency.

Meanwhile, Iran's parliament speaker warned the US military and Israel would be “legitimate targets” if America strikes Iran, as threatened by President Donald Trump.

Trump offered support for the protesters, saying on social media that “Iran is looking at FREEDOM, perhaps like never before. The USA stands ready to help!!!”

The New York Times and Wall Street Journal, citing anonymous US officials, said on Saturday night that Trump had been given military options for a strike on Iran, but hadn’t made a final decision.

The State Department separately warned: “Do not play games with President Trump. When he says he’ll do something, he means it.”

Iranian state television broadcast the parliament session live. Qalibaf gave a speech applauding police and Iran's Revolutionary Guard, particularly its all-volunteer Basij, for having “stood firm” during the protests.

“The people of Iran should know that we will deal with them in the most severe way and punish those who are arrested,” Qalibaf said.

He went on to directly threaten Israel, “the occupied territory” as he referred to it, and the US military, possibly with a preemptive strike.

“In the event of an attack on Iran, both the occupied territory and all American military centers, bases and ships in the region will be our legitimate targets,” Qalibaf said. “We do not consider ourselves limited to reacting after the action and will act based on any objective signs of a threat.”


Sources: Israel on High Alert for Possibility of US Intervention in Iran

In this frame grab from video taken by an individual not employed by The Associated Press and obtained by the AP outside Iran shows people during a protest in Tehran, Iran, Friday, Jan. 9, 2026. (UGC via AP)
In this frame grab from video taken by an individual not employed by The Associated Press and obtained by the AP outside Iran shows people during a protest in Tehran, Iran, Friday, Jan. 9, 2026. (UGC via AP)
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Sources: Israel on High Alert for Possibility of US Intervention in Iran

In this frame grab from video taken by an individual not employed by The Associated Press and obtained by the AP outside Iran shows people during a protest in Tehran, Iran, Friday, Jan. 9, 2026. (UGC via AP)
In this frame grab from video taken by an individual not employed by The Associated Press and obtained by the AP outside Iran shows people during a protest in Tehran, Iran, Friday, Jan. 9, 2026. (UGC via AP)

Israel is on high alert for the possibility of any US intervention in Iran as authorities there confront the biggest anti-government protests in years, according to three Israeli sources with knowledge of the matter.

President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to intervene ⁠in recent days and warned Iran’s rulers against using force against demonstrators. On Saturday, Trump said the US stands “ready to help”.

The sources, who were present ⁠for Israeli security consultations over the weekend, did not elaborate on what Israel’s high-alert footing meant in practice, Reuters reported. Israel and Iran fought a 12-day war in June.

In a phone call on Saturday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US Secretary ⁠of State Marco Rubio discussed the possibility of US intervention in Iran, according to an Israeli source who was present for the conversation. A US official confirmed the two men spoke but did not say what topics they discussed.


NKorea Says Another SKorean Drone Entered its Airspace

These images taken on January 4, 2026 and released as a combo image by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) via KNS on January 10, 2026 shows an aerial view of Kaesong city, which North Korea claims is footage taken retrieved from a drone from South Korea that violated North Korean airspace and brought down by specialized electronic warfare assets. (Photo by KCNA VIA KNS / AFP)
These images taken on January 4, 2026 and released as a combo image by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) via KNS on January 10, 2026 shows an aerial view of Kaesong city, which North Korea claims is footage taken retrieved from a drone from South Korea that violated North Korean airspace and brought down by specialized electronic warfare assets. (Photo by KCNA VIA KNS / AFP)
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NKorea Says Another SKorean Drone Entered its Airspace

These images taken on January 4, 2026 and released as a combo image by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) via KNS on January 10, 2026 shows an aerial view of Kaesong city, which North Korea claims is footage taken retrieved from a drone from South Korea that violated North Korean airspace and brought down by specialized electronic warfare assets. (Photo by KCNA VIA KNS / AFP)
These images taken on January 4, 2026 and released as a combo image by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) via KNS on January 10, 2026 shows an aerial view of Kaesong city, which North Korea claims is footage taken retrieved from a drone from South Korea that violated North Korean airspace and brought down by specialized electronic warfare assets. (Photo by KCNA VIA KNS / AFP)

North Korea said on Saturday that South Korea flew another drone into its airspace on January 4, infringing on its sovereignty, according to state media KCNA.

The announcement, which comes before North Korea holds a key party congress that will lay out policies for the next five years, sets the stage for cementing leader Kim Jong Un's rhetoric that South Korea is a foreign and hostile nation, an analyst said.

The drone, which originated from an island in the South Korean city of Incheon, flew 8 km (5 miles) before it was shot down inside North Korean airspace, KCNA said, citing a spokesperson for the North Korean military.

The drone was equipped with surveillance cameras to record "major" North Korean facilities, ⁠Reuters quoted KCNA as saying. Photos on KCNA showed a drone salvaged in pieces, electronic parts and aerial photos of buildings that KCNA said the drone had taken.

KCNA said the incident follows a September incursion by another South Korean drone that was shot over Kaesong.

"Even after the change of a regime... (South Korea) has continued to commit such acts of provocation by drones near the border," KCNA said, calling South Korea its "enemy most hostile".

Since South Korean President Lee Jae Myung took office in June, North Korea has rebuffed conciliatory gestures from Lee's administration. Lee had ⁠pledged to re-engage with Pyongyang to defuse tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

South Korea's military said on Saturday it does not operate the drone model in question, it did not operate drones on the date North Korea is claiming, and it will conduct a thorough investigation of a civilian possibly having operated the drone.

"We have no intention of provoking North Korea, and we will continue to take practical measures and efforts to ease... tensions and build trust," South Korea's military said in a statement.

The drone and electronics parts shown by North Korean state media are low-cost consumer products, and the captured video it revealed is of areas that do not have particular information value or military targets, said North Korean expert Hong Min at the Korea Institute for National Unification.

"The South Korean military already has a ⁠number of high-value assets that can clearly monitor the area near the armistice line," Hong said, making it unlikely that it was the South Korean military.

The timing of North Korea's mention of the drones is notable, as it comes just before North Korea's 9th Party Congress expected to be held soon.

Kim Jong Un's rhetoric of deeming the relationship between the two Koreas as two hostile countries, first introduced in 2024, is expected to be cemented further at the congress and may be put into North Korea's constitution this year, Hong said.

North Korea previously accused South Korea of sending a drone over Pyongyang in October 2024.

South Korea's former President Yoon Suk Yeol was accused by Seoul's special prosecutor late last year of ordering the Pyongyang drone operation to use military tensions between Pyongyang and Seoul as a justification for declaring emergency martial law.

Yoon has denied the charge, with his legal counsel saying the performance of the president's duties cannot be framed as a crime after the fact.