Oil Climbs on Supply Jitters as EU Lays Out Russian Oil Ban

An oil pump is seen at sunset outside Vaudoy-en-Brie, near Paris, France April 23, 2018. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann
An oil pump is seen at sunset outside Vaudoy-en-Brie, near Paris, France April 23, 2018. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann
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Oil Climbs on Supply Jitters as EU Lays Out Russian Oil Ban

An oil pump is seen at sunset outside Vaudoy-en-Brie, near Paris, France April 23, 2018. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann
An oil pump is seen at sunset outside Vaudoy-en-Brie, near Paris, France April 23, 2018. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann

Oil prices extended gains on Thursday on supply concerns after the European Union laid out plans for new sanctions against Russia, including an embargo on crude in six months, offsetting concerns over weaker Chinese demand.

Brent was up 36 cents, or 0.3%, at $110.50 a barrel by 0825 GMT, and US West Texas Intermediate crude rose 11 cents, or 0.1%, to $107.92 a barrel.

Both benchmarks gained more than $5 a barrel on Wednesday.

The sanctions proposal, which needs unanimous backing by the 27 EU countries, also includes phasing out imports of Russian refined products by the end of 2022, and a ban on all shipping and insurance services for the transportation of Russian oil.

"The oil market has not fully priced in the potential of an EU oil embargo, so higher crude prices are to be expected in the summer months if it's voted into law," Reuters quoted Rystad Energy’s headof oil markets research, Bjørnar Tonhaugen, as saying.

The French environment and energy minister, Barbara Pompili, said she was confident European Union member states will reach a consensus on sanctions by the end of this week.

"The planned EU oil embargo represents a massive logistical challenge for oil markets," said Investec’s head of commodities, Callum Macpherson.

"Re-routing Russian output from Europe to willing buyers in Asia, in the presence of sanctions, is already so challenging that even Russia has admitted its production will decline significantly," he added.

Meanwhile, in its meeting on Thursday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers, known as OPEC+, will likely stick to modest oil output increases arguing it is not responsible for geopolitics and supply disruptions.

OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo reiterated it was not possible for other producers to replace Russian supply, but expressed concerns about slowing demand for transportation fuels and petrochemicals in the world's top importer, China, because of prolonged COVID-19 lockdowns.

A private-sector survey on Thursday showed China's services sector activity contracted at the second-steepest rate on record in April under the effect of pandemic measures.

In Iran, surging oil prices have given its energy-reliant economy a breather and hence its clerical rulers are in no rush to revive a 2015 nuclear pact with world powers to ease sanctions, three officials familiar with Tehran's thinking said.

In the United States, crude stocks were up 1.2 million barrels last week after more oil was released from strategic reserves, according to the Energy Information Administration.



Türkiye Inflation Higher than Expected, Teeing up Tough Rate Decision

 People shop at a fresh market in Istanbul, Türkiye, July 5, 2024. (Reuters)
People shop at a fresh market in Istanbul, Türkiye, July 5, 2024. (Reuters)
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Türkiye Inflation Higher than Expected, Teeing up Tough Rate Decision

 People shop at a fresh market in Istanbul, Türkiye, July 5, 2024. (Reuters)
People shop at a fresh market in Istanbul, Türkiye, July 5, 2024. (Reuters)

Turkish inflation was higher than expected at 47.09% annually and 2.24% on a monthly basis in November, official data showed on Tuesday, potentially reducing the prospect of an interest rate cut later this month.

Prices of food and non-alcoholic drinks jumped 5.1% from the previous month, the Turkish Statistical Institute data showed, underlining the central bank's continued struggle against years of high inflation. Health-related prices rose 2.69%.

In a Reuters poll, the consumer price index inflation rate was expected to slow to 46.6% on an annual basis, while the monthly figure was seen at 1.91%, mainly due to food and medicine prices.

Although above expectations, annual inflation in November was at its lowest level since mid-2023. In October, annual inflation was 48.58% with the monthly rate at 2.88%.

The central bank has hiked rates by 4,150 basis points since June last year as part of an abrupt shift to economic orthodoxy, and has kept its policy rate steady at 50% since March.

It is watching monthly inflation closely as it decides when to cut its main interest rate, with expectations having grown in recent weeks that easing could come as soon as December.

Delaying rate cuts until next year, after "critical decisions" on the minimum wage and other administered prices "would be more appropriate", said Haluk Burumcekci, founding partner at Burumcekci Consulting, of an expected Jan. 1 rise to minimum wage.

But he added the central bank's latest policy statement "suggests that rate cuts are a serious option" for December.

After its policy meeting last month, the bank said it would set its rate to ensure the tightness required by the projected disinflation path, setting the stage for a cautious easing cycle.

The bank had also predicted that food would elevate overall inflation in November. Turkish Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz said on Tuesday that while food inflation remained high, aside from that there was a broadly more positive trend.

The Turkish lira was little changed after the data at 34.7505 to the dollar, having earlier touched a record low.

Economists had flagged medicine prices as an inflation driver in November since the government late last month hiked by 23.5% the euro rate for imported medicines.

The domestic producer price index was up 0.66% month-on-month in November for an annual rise of 29.47%, according to the data.

The Reuters poll showed annual inflation falling to 44.8% by year-end, close to the central bank's target of 44%. It also showed inflation falling to 26.5% at end-2025, compared to the central bank's view of 21%.