Aramco CEO Warns of Global Oil Crunch Due to Lack of Investment

Saudi Aramco logo is pictured at the oil facility in Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia October 12, 2019. (Reuters)
Saudi Aramco logo is pictured at the oil facility in Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia October 12, 2019. (Reuters)
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Aramco CEO Warns of Global Oil Crunch Due to Lack of Investment

Saudi Aramco logo is pictured at the oil facility in Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia October 12, 2019. (Reuters)
Saudi Aramco logo is pictured at the oil facility in Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia October 12, 2019. (Reuters)

The world is facing a major oil supply crunch as most companies are afraid to invest in the sector as they face green energy pressures, the head of Saudi Aramco told Reuters, adding it cannot expand production capacity any faster than promised.

Amin Nasser, head of the world's largest oil producer, said on Monday he was sticking to the target of expanding capacity to 13 million barrels per day from the current 12 million by 2027.

"The world is running with less than 2% of spare capacity. Before COVID the aviation industry was consuming 2.5 million bpd more than today. If the aviation industry picks up speed, you are going to have a major problem," Nasser told Reuters on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos.

"What happened in Russia-Ukraine masked what would have happened. We were going through an energy crisis because of a lack of investment. And it started to bite following the pandemic," he added.

Nasser said COVID restrictions in China would not last long and global oil demand would therefore resume its growth.

"If we could do it (expand capacity) before 2027 we would have done it. This is what we tell policymakers. It takes time".

Chaotic transition
Nasser also said dialogue between the oil industry and policymakers over the transition from fossil fuels to energy which does not result in carbon emissions has been problematic.

"I don't think there is a lot of constructive dialogue going on. In certain areas we are not brought to the table. We were not invited to COP in Glasgow," he said referring the last year's UN climate conference in Glasgow, Scotland.

He also said last year's message from the International Energy Agency that world oil demand was set to fall and no new investment in fossil fuel was needed had a profound impact.

"We need a more constructive dialogue. They say we don't need you by 2030, so why would you go and build a project that takes 6-7 years. Your shareholder will not allow you to do it".

The energy transition process was therefore often proving chaotic and disruptive, he said.

"There is no good plan... When you don't have plan B ready, don't demonize plan A," he said. "The pressure and the rhetoric is -- don't invest, you will have stranded assets. It makes difficult for CEOs to make investments."

So-called stranded asset theory is the notion that significant oil and gas reserves are left unused because they are longer required.

Nasser said missteps during the global energy transition would only encourage greater use of coal by many Asian countries.

"For policymakers in those countries the priority is to put food on the table for their people. If coal can do it half the price they will do it with coal".

He said Aramco, where Saudi Arabia is the main shareholder, was different as it was investing in both fossil fuel and energy transition.

"That is our difference from others. But what we are adding is not enough to meet the energy security of the world."



Oil Edges Down amid Bearish Trump Tariff Outlook

A view shows disused oil pump jacks at the Airankol oil field operated by Caspiy Neft in the Atyrau Region, Kazakhstan April 2, 2025. REUTERS/Pavel Mikheyev/File Photo
A view shows disused oil pump jacks at the Airankol oil field operated by Caspiy Neft in the Atyrau Region, Kazakhstan April 2, 2025. REUTERS/Pavel Mikheyev/File Photo
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Oil Edges Down amid Bearish Trump Tariff Outlook

A view shows disused oil pump jacks at the Airankol oil field operated by Caspiy Neft in the Atyrau Region, Kazakhstan April 2, 2025. REUTERS/Pavel Mikheyev/File Photo
A view shows disused oil pump jacks at the Airankol oil field operated by Caspiy Neft in the Atyrau Region, Kazakhstan April 2, 2025. REUTERS/Pavel Mikheyev/File Photo

Oil prices declined moderately on Thursday as investors weighed the potential impact of US President Donald Trump's tariffs on global economic growth.

Brent crude futures were down 23 cents, or 0.3%, at $69.96 a barrel by 0904 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 32 cents, or 0.5%, to $68.06 a barrel.

On Wednesday, Trump threatened Brazil, Latin America's largest economy, with a punitive 50% tariff on exports to the US, after a public spat with his Brazilian counterpart Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

He has also announced plans for tariffs on copper, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals and his administration sent tariff letters to the Philippines, Iraq and others, adding to over a dozen letters issued earlier in the week including for powerhouse US suppliers South Korea and Japan.

Trump's history of backpedaling on tariffs has caused the market to become less reactive to such announcements, said Harry Tchilinguirian, group head of research at Onyx Capital Group.

"People are largely in wait and see mode, given the erratic nature of policy making and the flexibility the administration is showing around tariffs," Tchilinguirian said.

Policymakers remain worried about the inflationary pressures from Trump's tariffs, with only "a couple" of officials at the Federal Reserve's June 17-18 meeting saying they felt interest rates could be reduced as soon as this month, minutes of the meeting released on Wednesday showed.

Higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive and reduce demand for oil, Reuters said.

Supporting oil prices however was a weaker US dollar in Thursday's Asia trading session, said OANDA senior analyst Kelvin Wong. A weaker dollar lifts oil prices by making it cheaper for holders of other currencies.

US crude stocks rose while gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Gasoline demand rose 6% to 9.2 million barrels per day last week, the EIA said.

Global daily flights were averaging 107,600 in the first eight days of July, an all-time high, with flights in China reaching a five-month peak and port and freight activities indicating "sustained expansion" in trade activities from last year, JP Morgan said in a client note.

"Year to date, global oil demand growth is averaging 0.97 million barrels per day, in line with our forecast of 1 million barrels per day," the note said.

Additionally, there is doubt the recent increase in production quotas announced by OPEC+ will result in an actual increase in production, as some members are already exceeding their quotas, said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG.

"And others, like Russia, are unable to meet their targets due to damaged oil infrastructure," he said.

OPEC+ oil producers are set to approve another big output boost for September, as they complete both the unwinding of voluntary production cuts by eight members, and the United Arab Emirates' move to a larger quota.