Japan Hosts Quad Summit Seeking Unity on Countering China

The leaders of the United States and Japan, seen here on May 23, 2022, plus Australia and India will meet in Tokyo for the Quad summit SAUL LOEB AFP
The leaders of the United States and Japan, seen here on May 23, 2022, plus Australia and India will meet in Tokyo for the Quad summit SAUL LOEB AFP
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Japan Hosts Quad Summit Seeking Unity on Countering China

The leaders of the United States and Japan, seen here on May 23, 2022, plus Australia and India will meet in Tokyo for the Quad summit SAUL LOEB AFP
The leaders of the United States and Japan, seen here on May 23, 2022, plus Australia and India will meet in Tokyo for the Quad summit SAUL LOEB AFP

Leaders of Japan, India, Australia and the United States met in Tokyo on Tuesday, looking to put China on notice as it expands its military and economic influence in the region.

The summit of the grouping known as the Quad comes a day after US President Joe Biden said Washington would be ready to intervene militarily to defend Taiwan, prompting China to accuse him of "playing with fire".

Tuesday's gathering is expected to produce fewer fireworks but still be clearly directed at China, AFP said.

"This is about democracies versus autocracies, and we have to make sure we deliver," Biden said as the Quad summit began.

There is growing regional discomfort with Chinese military activity including sorties, naval exercises and encroachments by fishing vessels that are viewed as probing regional defenses and red lines.

Adding to concerns are China's efforts to build ties with Pacific nations including the Solomon Islands, which sealed a wide-ranging security pact with Beijing last month.

China's foreign minister will visit the Solomon Islands this week, with reports suggesting he could add other countries including Vanuatu, Samoa, Tonga and Kiribati.

In a nod to those concerns, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida urged Quad members to "listen carefully" to regional neighbors, including the Pacific islands, "to help resolve the immediate challenges they face".

"Without walking together with countries in the region, the Quad cannot be successful," he said.

Australia's newly elected Prime Minister Anthony Albanese also pledged more support for Pacific nations including aid to deepen "our defense and maritime cooperation".

The Quad nations are expected to agree Tuesday on a deal to monitor regional maritime movement, a White House official said.

The "major initiative" will track "what is happening in countries' territorial waters and exclusive economic zones", the official told reporters.

Collected data will be unclassified and shared with "a wide range of partners" to help monitor activities like illegal fishing.

- 'Candid, direct conversations' -
Biden, Kishida, Albanese and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be looking to present a united front, but there are divisions behind the scenes.

India is the only Quad member that has not condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and Biden has repeatedly described a strong response to Moscow as a deterrent to other nations considering unilateral military action -- like China.

US strategy is for a "free, open, connected, secure and resilient Indo-Pacific. Russia's assault on Ukraine only heightens the importance of those goals -- the fundamental principles of the international order," he said.

Biden will meet Modi and Albanese one-on-one later Tuesday and "is very aware that India has its own history, its own views", the White House official said.

"The question is how they're addressed and how they're managed. And I think the president is very much of the view that the way to do this is to have candid, direct conversations," the official added.

India is expected to seek a softer overall tone to any joint Quad statement, shying away from the more muscular language employed by Washington, Canberra and Tokyo in recent months.

But Biden said the grouping was of growing importance, calling it a "central" partnership.

"In a short time, we've shown the Quad isn't just a passing fad. We mean business," he said.

Biden arrived in Japan on Sunday after a stop in Seoul as he tries to reassure Asian allies his administration has not been distracted by the war in Ukraine.

Hanging over the regional tour has been the threat that North Korea could be planning fresh missile launches or even a nuclear test.

Speculation that a launch could happen when Biden was in Seoul did not materialize, but Washington has said it remains "prepared", and Pyongyang's missile program is also likely to be on the Quad agenda.



Aviation Experts: Russia's Air Defense Fire Likely Caused Azerbaijan Plane Crash

In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, a part of Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)
In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, a part of Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)
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Aviation Experts: Russia's Air Defense Fire Likely Caused Azerbaijan Plane Crash

In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, a part of Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)
In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, a part of Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)

Aviation experts said Thursday that Russian air defense fire was likely responsible for the Azerbaijani plane crash the day before that killed 38 people and left all 29 survivors injured.
Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 was en route from Azerbaijan's capital of Baku to the Russian city of Grozny in the North Caucasus on Wednesday when it was diverted for reasons still unclear and crashed while making an attempt to land in Aktau in Kazakhstan after flying east across the Caspian Sea.
The plane went down about 3 kilometers (around 2 miles) from Aktau. Cellphone footage circulating online appeared to show the aircraft making a steep descent before smashing into the ground and exploding in a fireball.
Other footage showed part of its fuselage ripped away from the wings and the rest of the aircraft lying upside down in the grass.
Azerbaijan mourned the crash victims with national flags at half-staff across the country on Thursday. Traffic stopped at noon, and signals sounded from ships and trains as it observed a nationwide moment of silence.
Speaking at a news conference Wednesday, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that it was too soon to speculate on the reasons behind the crash, but said that the weather had forced the plane to change from its planned course.
“The information provided to me is that the plane changed its course between Baku and Grozny due to worsening weather conditions and headed to Aktau airport, where it crashed upon landing,” The Associated Press quoted him as saying.
Russia’s civil aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, said that preliminary information indicated that the pilots diverted to Aktau after a bird strike led to an emergency on board.
As the official crash investigation started, some experts alleged that holes seen in the plane’s tail section could indicate that it could have come under fire from Russian air defense systems fending off a Ukrainian drone attack.
Ukrainian drones had previously attacked Grozny, the provincial capital of the Russian republic of Chechnya, and other regions in the country’s North Caucasus. An official in Chechnya said another drone attack on the region was fended off on Wednesday, although federal authorities didn't report it.
Mark Zee of OPSGroup, which monitors the world’s airspace and airports for risks, said that the analysis of the images of fragments of the crashed plane indicate that it was almost certainly hit by a surface-to-air missile, or SAM.
“Much more to investigate, but at high level we'd put the probability of it being a SAM attack on the aircraft at being well into the 90-99% bracket,” he said.
Osprey Flight Solutions, an aviation security firm based in the United Kingdom, warned its clients that the “Azerbaijan Airlines flight was likely shot down by a Russian military air-defense system.” Osprey provides analysis for carriers still flying into Russia after Western airlines halted their flights during the war.
Osprey CEO Andrew Nicholson said that the company had issued more than 200 alerts regarding drone attacks and air defense systems in Russia during the war.
“This incident is a stark reminder of why we do what we do,” Nicholson wrote online. “It is painful to know that despite our efforts, lives were lost in a way that could have been avoided.”
Yan Matveyev, an independent Russian military expert, noted that images of the crashed plane's tail reveal the damage compatible with shrapnel from a small surface-to-air missiles, such as the Pantsyr-S1 air defense system.
“It looks like the tail section of the plane was damaged by some missile fragments,” he said.
Matveyev added that it remains unclear why the pilots decided to fly hundreds of miles east across the Caspian Sea instead of trying to land at a closer airport in Russia after the plane was hit.
“Perhaps some of the plane's systems kept working for some time and the crew believed that they could make it and land normally,” Matveyev said, adding that the crew could also have faced restrictions on landing at another venue in Russia.
Caliber, an Azerbaijani news website with good government connections, also claimed that the airliner was fired upon by a Russian Pantsyr-S air defense system as it was approaching Grozny. It questioned why Russian authorities failed to close the airport despite the apparent drone raid in the area. Khamzat Kadyrov, head of Chechnya's Security Council, said that air defenses downed drones attacking the region on Wednesday.
Caliber also wondered why Russian authorities didn't allow the plane to make an emergency landing in Grozny or other Russian airports nearby after it was hit.
Asked about the claims that the plane had been fired upon by air defense assets, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that “it would be wrong to make hypotheses before investigators make their verdict.”
Kazakhstan’s parliamentary speaker, Maulen Ashimbayev, also warned against rushing to conclusions based on pictures of the plane’s fragments, describing the allegations of air defense fire as unfounded and unethical.
Other officials in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have similarly avoided comment on a possible cause of the crash, saying it will be up to investigators to determine it.
According to Kazakh officials, those aboard the plane included 42 Azerbaijani citizens, 16 Russian nationals, six Kazakhs and three Kyrgyzstan nationals. Russia’s Emergencies Ministry on Thursday flew nine Russian survivors to Moscow for treatment.