Seven Arab States Could Face Food Crisis in Absence of Urgent Solutions

Arab countries could face a food shortage crisis if they do not address the existing challenges. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Arab countries could face a food shortage crisis if they do not address the existing challenges. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Seven Arab States Could Face Food Crisis in Absence of Urgent Solutions

Arab countries could face a food shortage crisis if they do not address the existing challenges. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Arab countries could face a food shortage crisis if they do not address the existing challenges. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Seven Arab countries are expected to face a stifling food crisis if they don’t address their political and economic crises to face external challenges, topped by the Russian-Ukrainian war and the high cost of shipping from traditional food-exporting countries.

All these outstanding issues and plans to address the food crisis in the Arab world will be presented at a meeting in Tunisia later this month, as part of the activities of the Higher Coordination Committee for Joint Arab Action.

The event includes a financing mechanism for many programs that push for developing the agricultural and livestock sector, while expanding the rain-fed agriculture, which is spread in many of the Arab League member states.

Prof. Ibrahim Adam El-Dukhiri, the Director General of the Arab Organization for Agricultural Development (AOAD) at the Arab League, said the economic situation in some of the Arab states is the reason behind this threat.

In other countries, including oil countries, the political situation and instability are evident and reduce their appropriate utilization of the available resources.

The fragile political and security situation in the seven countries, which he didn’t reveal, exacerbates the food security problems and complicates any solution reached in this regard.

These problems will not affect the food sector only, Dukhiri noted, but they will rather afflict all their economic activities.

He stressed that the internal and foreign investments will decrease as a result of the overall situation in these countries.

He suggested resolving these issues as a major step to address the economic challenges, including the food crisis.

Dukhiri also pointed out that the climate change and the development level will affect many countries, including those that have rain-fed crops, who will face many troubles at the beginning and end of each season.

The senior official affirmed that the impact of the war in Ukraine will not be temporary, expecting that the situation will deteriorate by next year.

Dukhiri underscored the need for quick intervention, stressing that inaction will led to food shortages in many countries.

He pointed out that the cost of shipping has remarkably increased in various traditional food producing countries, including Argentina, Brazil, and Australia.

He shed light on the complexities and political differences that prevail in many European countries.

Some ports may refuse to receive specific products, leading to a surge in prices, he said, warning that the situation will become out of control.

Commenting on the AOAD’s role to help these countries, Dukhiri said their agricultural ministers are currently developing strategies to avoid this crisis.

They requested help from the organization, in terms of training, rehabilitation, studies, and plans, the official said, affirming that it is providing the optimal support.

The organization will propose in Tunis a program to address this issue, namely the Arab Sustainable Food Security Program, in which the financing mechanism is clarified and will be available to all.

“We will share with the Arab community the organization’s vision and arrangements, which include plans that can be implemented quickly, including Arab investments, and there are programs that need more time to be completed,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

The strategy includes three main and integrated factors, mainly the restructuring of the prevailing agricultural systems to become more efficient, as well as the hydroponic systems to increase the efficiency of water use.

The second factor is the expansion of rain-fed agriculture, especially that there are large areas in the Arab world where reasonable levels of self-sufficiency could be reached.

The third factor, according to Dukhiri, is the livestock component, which needs some arrangements in the process of feeding the animals.

He affirmed that this factor can reduce the effects of the import crisis.



The High Cost of Hormuz: $37 Billion Shock Exposes Iraq’s Economic Vulnerability

A drone view shows oil trucks arriving from Iraq on their way to the Baniyas oil terminal, Syria, May 14, 2026.  (Reuters)
A drone view shows oil trucks arriving from Iraq on their way to the Baniyas oil terminal, Syria, May 14, 2026. (Reuters)
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The High Cost of Hormuz: $37 Billion Shock Exposes Iraq’s Economic Vulnerability

A drone view shows oil trucks arriving from Iraq on their way to the Baniyas oil terminal, Syria, May 14, 2026.  (Reuters)
A drone view shows oil trucks arriving from Iraq on their way to the Baniyas oil terminal, Syria, May 14, 2026. (Reuters)

The recent regional war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Iraq’s economy into one of its most serious crises in decades. The massive financial losses are more than just another consequence of regional conflict; they have exposed Iraq’s near-total dependence on a single maritime export route.

As Baghdad struggles to finance public-sector salaries through domestic borrowing and the use of foreign-exchange reserves, the crisis has renewed scrutiny of years of poor planning, corruption, and political obstruction of strategic projects, such as the Basra-Aqaba oil pipeline, initiatives that could have provided alternative export routes and a safety net for the country’s most important source of income.

Financial and energy analysts estimate Iraq’s losses at more than $37 billion, a severe blow to an economy that relies overwhelmingly on oil revenues.

The disruption has forced authorities to draw on domestic debt and accumulated reserves to cover monthly salary and pension obligations estimated at roughly $6.5 billion.

Slow recovery

Although the conflict appears to be winding down and the Oil Ministry has expressed optimism about resuming production, energy experts caution that Iraqi oil fields may require months to return to their prewar output levels.

Before the crisis, Iraq produced more than 4.2 million barrels per day, including approximately 3.5 million barrels exported to international markets.

Observers said the consequences extend beyond the immediate financial shock caused by the freezing of oil revenues. The conflict revealed a “dangerous strategic vulnerability”: Iraq’s overwhelming reliance on southern Gulf export terminals and the Strait of Hormuz as the sole outlet for its most valuable resource.

The crisis has also revived debate over decades of mismanagement and inadequate planning in one of the country’s most vital economic sectors.

Oil trucks arrive from Iraq, on their way to the Baniyas oil terminal, in Qamishli, Syria, May 11, 2026. (Reuters)

A single export gateway

Over previous decades, Iraq possessed several overland export routes, including the Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline to Türkiye, the Iraq-Saudi pipeline, and the historic Kirkuk-Haifa and Kirkuk-Baniyas lines. Most have been out of service for years because of wars, political instability, and security challenges.

Successive governments sought to revive export diversification. Among the most significant proposals was the Basra-Aqaba pipeline, championed during the administration of former Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi. The project would transport crude oil from southern Iraq to Jordan’s Red Sea port of Aqaba.

Energy specialists regard it as a strategic asset that could have reduced Iraq’s dependence on Gulf shipping routes. Political disputes and regional pressures, however, prevented its implementation.

Limited alternatives

As the crisis intensified and oil revenues dwindled, Iraq attempted to expand exports through Türkiye, Syria, and Jordan. Energy experts said those efforts achieved only marginal results.

Contrary to reports that Iraq was exporting oil through 700 tanker trucks through Syria, former Oil Ministry spokesman Asim Jihad said exports through Syrian territory amount to no more than 200 tankers per day.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that Iraq is exporting fuel oil rather than crude oil through Syria to avoid bottlenecks at producing fields.

Such shipments, he added, are operationally complex and generate only limited revenue compared with normal export volumes.

On the northern route, Jihad noted that Iraq exports between 150,000 and 200,000 barrels per day through the Kurdistan Region’s pipeline to the port of Ceyhan in Türkiye.

Meanwhile, the older federal pipeline linking Kirkuk to Ceyhan remains out of service because of extensive damage that has yet to be repaired.

A drone view shows the Rumaila oil field in Basra, Iraq, June 8, 2026. (Reuters)

Jihad expressed little optimism that Iraq can establish major alternative export corridors outside the Gulf in the near future, citing time constraints, high costs, and political complications.

He also voiced uncertainty about negotiations with Ankara over future export agreements through Ceyhan, particularly as existing arrangements are set to expire at the end of July.

“The only option left for Iraq is to hope that no new conflict erupts in the Gulf that would once again close the Strait of Hormuz and deprive the country of its primary source of income,” he added.

Cost of the blockade

The Eco Iraq Observatory estimated that Iraq has lost roughly 350 million barrels of oil exports since the Strait of Hormuz was closed on February 28, representing missed sales worth approximately $37.7 billion at average market prices during the period.

According to the organization, Iraq had been exporting between 103 million and 107 million barrels of crude oil per month before the closure. Export losses reached 84.4 million barrels in March, 93.1 million in April, 92.8 million in May, and 79.6 million in June.

Eco Iraq argued that the “New Levant” initiative — a regional economic integration project involving Iraq, Jordan, and Egypt — has become a strategic necessity.

The plan envisions deeper economic cooperation, infrastructure links, and alternative export routes, including the shipment of Iraqi oil through Jordan to Egyptian ports, reducing dependence on geopolitically vulnerable maritime corridors.


Crude Prices Drop, Most Stocks Rise on 'Positive' US-Iran Talks

A pump jack operates near a crude oil reserve in the Permian Basin oil field near Midland, Texas, US February 18, 2025. REUTERS/Eli Hartman/File Photo
A pump jack operates near a crude oil reserve in the Permian Basin oil field near Midland, Texas, US February 18, 2025. REUTERS/Eli Hartman/File Photo
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Crude Prices Drop, Most Stocks Rise on 'Positive' US-Iran Talks

A pump jack operates near a crude oil reserve in the Permian Basin oil field near Midland, Texas, US February 18, 2025. REUTERS/Eli Hartman/File Photo
A pump jack operates near a crude oil reserve in the Permian Basin oil field near Midland, Texas, US February 18, 2025. REUTERS/Eli Hartman/File Photo

Oil prices fell Monday on optimism over US-Iran peace talks, with mediators flagging a "roadmap" to a final agreement, while most equities rose thanks to another healthy start for tech firms.

After a meeting planned for Friday was cancelled owing to fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, the negotiations finally got underway on Sunday in Switzerland with teams led by US Vice President JD Vance and Iran's Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

Traders remain in buoyant mood after news that the two foes had ended their conflict, which had sent energy costs soaring and stoking inflation, sending shivers through the global economy.

There were initial jitters following reports that Iran had called off the talks over US President Donald Trump's threat to carry out more strikes if Hezbollah kept attacking Israel, but mediators Pakistan and Qatar said the talks took place in "a positive and constructive atmosphere".

The mood improved as Qatar and Pakistan announced progress, which aim to address Tehran's nuclear program and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of oil and gas pass.

The two said the United States and Iran agreed to set up a "communication line" to avoid incidents in the crucial waterway, and "the High Level Committee has agreed upon a roadmap towards reaching a final deal within 60 days, laying the foundation for the immediate commencement of further technical talks".

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi added on X that "mediation has delivered major progress to end Lebanon War".

Both main oil contracts fell in early trade, while most stock markets advanced.

Tokyo climbed two percent, Seoul was up more than one percent and Taipei jumped 2.7 percent.

The gains came on the back of another rally in tech firms, particularly chipmakers including South Korea's SK hynix, Taiwan's TSMC and Japan's Advantest.

Sydney, Wellington and Jakarta also advanced, though there were losses in Hong Kong, Shanghai and Singapore.

"Following the positive response last week to reports of a US-Iran ceasefire, markets are likely to open with a cautious tone to start the new week as it remains clear that the situation in the Middle East remains fragile," said National Australia Bank's Skye Masters.

"The dollar is likely to remain supported, the oil price could swing either way but at current levels the risk is for a lift higher."

Sterling remained under pressure after suffering selling following Thursday's election of UK Labor politician Andy Burnham that ramped up expectations he will oust beleaguered Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

The embattled premier "is expected to announce on Monday that he will step down as prime minister after overwhelming pressure from Labor MPs to make way for Andy Burnham", Britain's Guardian newspaper said.

Investors were nervous that Burnham could introduce fresh spending plans that would add to the country's already huge debt pile.


Gold Rebounds from One-Week Low as Iran Cites Progress in Peace Talks

Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold in a workroom during production at Krastsvetmet precious metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia, June 16, 2026. (Reuters)
Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold in a workroom during production at Krastsvetmet precious metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia, June 16, 2026. (Reuters)
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Gold Rebounds from One-Week Low as Iran Cites Progress in Peace Talks

Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold in a workroom during production at Krastsvetmet precious metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia, June 16, 2026. (Reuters)
Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold in a workroom during production at Krastsvetmet precious metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia, June 16, 2026. (Reuters)

Gold rebounded from a more than one-week low on Monday, as oil prices fell after Iran cited progress in US-Iran peace talks, though bets of higher interest rates after hawkish US Federal Reserve signals weighed on the metal's outlook.

Spot gold was up 0.8% at $4,194.99 per ounce, as of 0608 GMT, after falling to its ‌lowest level ‌since June 11 on Friday. US gold futures ‌for ⁠August delivery fell ⁠0.8% to $4,213.10.

The first round of talks between high-ranking US and Iranian officials in Switzerland ended Monday, with an Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson saying good progress has been made, according to Iran's Press TV.

A joint statement from mediating nations Qatar and Pakistan said the US and Iran agreed to a roadmap toward a final deal within ⁠60 days.

"The current situation in Switzerland is quite ‌different from a few hours ago ‌when the two sides were squabbling, but now it seems they're making ‌some progress," said Edward Meir, an analyst at Marex.

"We're going ‌to be trading on geopolitical guidelines for a little while longer, but the situation is fluid so perhaps best to watch the action from the sidelines for now."

Brent crude futures fell more than 1% after ‌the announcement. Elevated oil prices stoke inflation concerns and raise expectations of higher interest rates. Gold tends ⁠to lose appeal ⁠when rates are high, as it does not yield interest.

Meanwhile, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's emphasis on inflation in last week's press conference, without any more-nuanced commentary about what might clear the bar for a rate hike, led investors to conclude an increase was coming soon.

Nine of the Fed's 19 policymakers believe they will need to raise the policy rate this year.

Traders see an 89% chance of a rate hike in December, from 61% before the Fed's meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Spot silver rose 2.4% to $66.48 per ounce, platinum gained 0.7% to $1,675.91, and palladium was up 1.8% at $1,280.45.