Syria 'Safe Zone': 3 Options for Turkey

 Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the UN Headquarters in New York on September 24, 2019. (AP)
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the UN Headquarters in New York on September 24, 2019. (AP)
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Syria 'Safe Zone': 3 Options for Turkey

 Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the UN Headquarters in New York on September 24, 2019. (AP)
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the UN Headquarters in New York on September 24, 2019. (AP)

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has renewed his demand to establish a safe zone, devoid of the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) and Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), 30 kilometers deep into northern Syria.

Erdogan first made his intentions clear in 2013 and then presented a detailed map of his vision before the United Nations in 2019. His plan was rejected by the United States, Europe and Russia. Ankara managed, however, through various exchanges and military incursions to establish pockets of control in the area.

This was achieved through four military operations: Euphrates Shield in Jarablus in northern Aleppo in 2016, Olive Branch in Afrin in Aleppo's countryside in 2018, Peace Spring in Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ain east of the Euphrates River in late 2019 and Spring Shield in Idlib in spring 2020.

The process also demanded a series of agreements: Ankara, Moscow and Tehran signed an agreement over Idlib in Astana in 2017; Ankara signed a number of understandings with Moscow in 2018 and 2020; Ankara signed an agreement with Washington over the Manbij "roadmap" in 2018 and another one on the Peace Spring region in October 2019.

These deals allowed Turkey to establish its zones of influence that take up around 10 percent of Syria, or roughly twice the size of Lebanon. Turkey, along with Russia and Iran, which control 63 percent of Syria with the regime, is one of the main players in the war-torn country. Added to them are the United States and its allies, who back the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which hold 23 percent of northeastern Syria.

Turkey's incursions in Syria have prevented the Kurds from establishing their own state, similar to the Iraqi Kurdistan Region. It partially succeeded in driving out the YPG and PKK from its southern borders and prevented dramatic demographic changes in northern Syria. Ankara, Tehran and Damascus are in agreement over barring the establishment of a Kurdish entity. Syria, Iran and Turkey had in the 1990s also stood against the establishment of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region.

What has changed?
Erdogan believes that the war on Ukraine has granted Turkey a unique and major negotiations position with Russia, the US and Washington.

Washington supports Sweden and Finland's bid to join NATO and in order for that to succeed, it needs the approval of all members, including Turkey.

Moscow opposes the bid and is banking on Turkey's veto to that end.

Through the series of tradeoffs and understandings in Syria, and Ankara and Moscow's bilateral military, economic and political relations, Russian President Vladimir Putin succeeded in using his special ties with Erdogan in making a main breakthrough in NATO's southern front. Turkey's Incirlik base near the Syrian border lies just dozens of kilometers away from Russia's Hmeimim air base in western Syria.

Days ago, as NATO was preparing to hold a summit in Spain next month, Erdogan raised his tone and threatened to wage a new incursion in northern Syria with the aim of establishing a "safe zone" and driving out the YPG.

Turkish intelligence and allied Syrian factions have been preparing for the new battle. Shelling along the frontlines has also intensified in recent days, namely in the Peace Spring region covering Tal Abyad, Ras al-Ain and the area east of the Euphrates, the areas near Manbij in the Aleppo countryside, and in Tal Rifaat.

Each of these three zones has its own risks should Turkey choose to attack:

- Red zone. The US has deployed its forces, patrols and drones in the area east of the Euphrates to stress that it is there to protect its allies - the SDF - and repel the Turkish army. The US informed Ankara, through its UN ambassador, of its rejection of any military attacks.

Russia, meanwhile, has used the Turkish threats of an offensive to justify reinforcing its strategic deployment near American forces east of the Euphrates.

This has forced Turkey to backtrack somewhat with Erdogan clearly stating that the new offensive would not include the area east of the Euphrates, but it will cover the region west of the river, specifically Manbij and Tal Rifaat.

- Yellow - grey zone, covering west of the Euphrates in Manbij, where an old American-Turkish agreement called for the withdrawal of the YPG and PKK. Washington and Ankara also agreed to deploy joint patrols in the area and form a local council.

The US assurances to the YPG included Manbij and Washington believes that any threat to the Kurdish force will undermine the war against ISIS.

Any Turkish attack in this zone will lead to instability and raise demands in the US Congress for Washington to impose sanctions on Ankara that were imposed after the 2019 offensive.

Erdogan certainly wants to avoid more economic pressure, a year before presidential elections. He may, however, increase pressure in Manbij to reach a new settlement against the YPG.

- Green zone that covers Tal Rifaat, also west of the Euphrates. This area is, in theory, held by Russia, Iran and the Damascus regime. A Turkish incursion here may be easier than the other two zones. All Ankara needs is a green light from Moscow, just as it did for the Euphrates Shield, Olive Branch and Spring Shield operations.

At the time, Russia extracted a price from Turkey in Syria. This time around, Turkey's request for control of Tal Rifaat from Russia will be met with Moscow's demands over Ukraine and Sweden and Finland's NATO bids or perhaps that Ankara normalize ties with Damascus and agree to the deployment of Syrian border guards on the Syrian-Turkish border.

The coming days will reveal Turkey's true intentions: Is it seeking better negotiations conditions ahead of the NATO summit or is Erdogan seeking to impose a new reality on the ground before flying to Spain? Moreover, how will this clash play out with the UN Security Council seeking to extend the cross-border aid deliveries through Turkey before the July 10 deadline?



Trump's Week of Tariff Turmoil Rings Recession Alarm

An electronic board shows Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indices as people walk on a pedestrian bridge at the Lujiazui financial district in Shanghai, China April 11, 2025. REUTERS/Go Nakamura  REFILE - QUALITY REPEAT
An electronic board shows Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indices as people walk on a pedestrian bridge at the Lujiazui financial district in Shanghai, China April 11, 2025. REUTERS/Go Nakamura REFILE - QUALITY REPEAT
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Trump's Week of Tariff Turmoil Rings Recession Alarm

An electronic board shows Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indices as people walk on a pedestrian bridge at the Lujiazui financial district in Shanghai, China April 11, 2025. REUTERS/Go Nakamura  REFILE - QUALITY REPEAT
An electronic board shows Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indices as people walk on a pedestrian bridge at the Lujiazui financial district in Shanghai, China April 11, 2025. REUTERS/Go Nakamura REFILE - QUALITY REPEAT

A week of turbulence unleashed by US President Donald Trump's tariffs showed little sign of easing on Friday, with financial markets again whipsawing and foreign leaders grappling with how to respond to a dismantling of the world trade order.

A brief reprieve for battered stocks seen after Trump decided to pause duties for dozens of countries for 90 days quickly dissipated, as attention returned to his escalating trade war with China that has fueled global recession fears.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to assuage sceptics by telling a cabinet meeting on Thursday that more than 75 countries wanted to start trade negotiations. Trump himself expressed hope of a deal with China, the world's No.2 economy.

But the uncertainty in the meantime extended some of the most volatile trading since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The S&P 500 index ended 3.5% lower on Thursday and is now down about 15% from its all-time peak in February.

Asian indices mostly followed Wall Street lower on Friday with Japan's Nikkei down 4%, though markets in Taiwan and Hong Kong turned positive and European stocks were set to open slightly firmer.

A sell-off in government bonds - which caught Trump's attention before Wednesday's pause - picked up pace on Friday with US long-term borrowing costs set for their biggest weekly increase since 1982. Gold, a safe haven for investors in times of crisis, scaled a record high.

"Recession risk is much, much higher now than it was a couple weeks ago," said Adam Hetts, global head of multi-asset at investment fund Janus Henderson.

Bessent on Thursday shrugged off the renewed market turmoil and said striking deals with other countries would bring certainty.

The US and Vietnam have agreed to begin formal trade talks, the White House said. The Southeast Asian manufacturing hub is prepared to crack down on Chinese goods being shipped to the United States via its territory in the hope of avoiding tariffs, Reuters exclusively reported on Friday.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, meanwhile, has set up a trade task force that hopes to visit Washington next week. Taiwan said it also expects to be included in the first batch of trading partners to hold talks with Washington.

CHINA DEAL?

As Trump suddenly paused his 'reciprocal' tariffs on other countries hours after they came into effect earlier this week, he ratcheted up duties on Chinese imports as punishment for Beijing's initial move to retaliate.

Trump has now imposed new tariffs on Chinese goods of 145% since taking office, a White House official said.

Chinese officials have been canvassing other trading partners about how to deal with the US tariffs, most recently talking to counterparts in Spain, Saudi Arabia and South Africa.

Trump told reporters at the White House he thought the United States could make a deal with China, but he reiterated his argument that Beijing had "really taken advantage" of the US for a long time.

"I'm sure that we'll be able to get along very well," Trump said, adding that he respected Chinese President Xi Jinping. "In a true sense he's been a friend of mine for a long period of time, and I think that we'll end up working out something that's very good for both countries."

China, which has rejected what it called threats and blackmail from Washington, restricted imports of Hollywood films, targeting one of the most high-profile American exports.

The US tariff pause also does not apply to duties paid by Canada and Mexico, whose goods are still subject to 25% fentanyl-related tariffs unless they comply with the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement's rules of origin.

With trade hostilities persisting among the top three US trade partners, Goldman Sachs estimates the probability of a recession at 45%.

Even with the rollback, the overall average import duty rate imposed by the US is the highest in more than a century, according to Yale University researchers.

The pause also did little to soothe business leaders' worries about the fallout from Trump's trade war and its chaotic implementation: soaring costs, falling orders and snarled supply chains.

One reprieve came, however, when the European Union said on Thursday it would pause its first counter-tariffs.

The EU had been due to launch counter-tariffs on about 21 billion euros ($23 billion) of US imports next Tuesday in response to Trump's 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium. It is still assessing how to respond to US car tariffs and the broader 10% levies that remain in place.

Finance ministers from the 27-country bloc will brainstorm on Friday how to use the pause to get a trade deal with Washington and how to coordinate their efforts to handle tariffs if they do not.

European authorities estimate the impact of the US tariffs its economy would total 0.5% to 1.0% of GDP. Given the EU economy as a whole is forecast to grow 0.9% this year, according to the European Central Bank, the US tariffs could tip the EU into recession.