Syria 'Safe Zone': 3 Options for Turkey

 Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the UN Headquarters in New York on September 24, 2019. (AP)
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the UN Headquarters in New York on September 24, 2019. (AP)
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Syria 'Safe Zone': 3 Options for Turkey

 Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the UN Headquarters in New York on September 24, 2019. (AP)
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the UN Headquarters in New York on September 24, 2019. (AP)

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has renewed his demand to establish a safe zone, devoid of the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) and Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), 30 kilometers deep into northern Syria.

Erdogan first made his intentions clear in 2013 and then presented a detailed map of his vision before the United Nations in 2019. His plan was rejected by the United States, Europe and Russia. Ankara managed, however, through various exchanges and military incursions to establish pockets of control in the area.

This was achieved through four military operations: Euphrates Shield in Jarablus in northern Aleppo in 2016, Olive Branch in Afrin in Aleppo's countryside in 2018, Peace Spring in Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ain east of the Euphrates River in late 2019 and Spring Shield in Idlib in spring 2020.

The process also demanded a series of agreements: Ankara, Moscow and Tehran signed an agreement over Idlib in Astana in 2017; Ankara signed a number of understandings with Moscow in 2018 and 2020; Ankara signed an agreement with Washington over the Manbij "roadmap" in 2018 and another one on the Peace Spring region in October 2019.

These deals allowed Turkey to establish its zones of influence that take up around 10 percent of Syria, or roughly twice the size of Lebanon. Turkey, along with Russia and Iran, which control 63 percent of Syria with the regime, is one of the main players in the war-torn country. Added to them are the United States and its allies, who back the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which hold 23 percent of northeastern Syria.

Turkey's incursions in Syria have prevented the Kurds from establishing their own state, similar to the Iraqi Kurdistan Region. It partially succeeded in driving out the YPG and PKK from its southern borders and prevented dramatic demographic changes in northern Syria. Ankara, Tehran and Damascus are in agreement over barring the establishment of a Kurdish entity. Syria, Iran and Turkey had in the 1990s also stood against the establishment of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region.

What has changed?
Erdogan believes that the war on Ukraine has granted Turkey a unique and major negotiations position with Russia, the US and Washington.

Washington supports Sweden and Finland's bid to join NATO and in order for that to succeed, it needs the approval of all members, including Turkey.

Moscow opposes the bid and is banking on Turkey's veto to that end.

Through the series of tradeoffs and understandings in Syria, and Ankara and Moscow's bilateral military, economic and political relations, Russian President Vladimir Putin succeeded in using his special ties with Erdogan in making a main breakthrough in NATO's southern front. Turkey's Incirlik base near the Syrian border lies just dozens of kilometers away from Russia's Hmeimim air base in western Syria.

Days ago, as NATO was preparing to hold a summit in Spain next month, Erdogan raised his tone and threatened to wage a new incursion in northern Syria with the aim of establishing a "safe zone" and driving out the YPG.

Turkish intelligence and allied Syrian factions have been preparing for the new battle. Shelling along the frontlines has also intensified in recent days, namely in the Peace Spring region covering Tal Abyad, Ras al-Ain and the area east of the Euphrates, the areas near Manbij in the Aleppo countryside, and in Tal Rifaat.

Each of these three zones has its own risks should Turkey choose to attack:

- Red zone. The US has deployed its forces, patrols and drones in the area east of the Euphrates to stress that it is there to protect its allies - the SDF - and repel the Turkish army. The US informed Ankara, through its UN ambassador, of its rejection of any military attacks.

Russia, meanwhile, has used the Turkish threats of an offensive to justify reinforcing its strategic deployment near American forces east of the Euphrates.

This has forced Turkey to backtrack somewhat with Erdogan clearly stating that the new offensive would not include the area east of the Euphrates, but it will cover the region west of the river, specifically Manbij and Tal Rifaat.

- Yellow - grey zone, covering west of the Euphrates in Manbij, where an old American-Turkish agreement called for the withdrawal of the YPG and PKK. Washington and Ankara also agreed to deploy joint patrols in the area and form a local council.

The US assurances to the YPG included Manbij and Washington believes that any threat to the Kurdish force will undermine the war against ISIS.

Any Turkish attack in this zone will lead to instability and raise demands in the US Congress for Washington to impose sanctions on Ankara that were imposed after the 2019 offensive.

Erdogan certainly wants to avoid more economic pressure, a year before presidential elections. He may, however, increase pressure in Manbij to reach a new settlement against the YPG.

- Green zone that covers Tal Rifaat, also west of the Euphrates. This area is, in theory, held by Russia, Iran and the Damascus regime. A Turkish incursion here may be easier than the other two zones. All Ankara needs is a green light from Moscow, just as it did for the Euphrates Shield, Olive Branch and Spring Shield operations.

At the time, Russia extracted a price from Turkey in Syria. This time around, Turkey's request for control of Tal Rifaat from Russia will be met with Moscow's demands over Ukraine and Sweden and Finland's NATO bids or perhaps that Ankara normalize ties with Damascus and agree to the deployment of Syrian border guards on the Syrian-Turkish border.

The coming days will reveal Turkey's true intentions: Is it seeking better negotiations conditions ahead of the NATO summit or is Erdogan seeking to impose a new reality on the ground before flying to Spain? Moreover, how will this clash play out with the UN Security Council seeking to extend the cross-border aid deliveries through Turkey before the July 10 deadline?



Aid Workers Feel Helpless as Israel's Blockade Pushes Gaza Towards Famine 

Palestinians struggle to receive cooked food distributed at a community kitchen in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Wednesday, May 14, 2025. (AP)
Palestinians struggle to receive cooked food distributed at a community kitchen in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Wednesday, May 14, 2025. (AP)
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Aid Workers Feel Helpless as Israel's Blockade Pushes Gaza Towards Famine 

Palestinians struggle to receive cooked food distributed at a community kitchen in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Wednesday, May 14, 2025. (AP)
Palestinians struggle to receive cooked food distributed at a community kitchen in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Wednesday, May 14, 2025. (AP)

Two cases pushed nutritionist Rana Soboh to wits' end. First, a woman was rushed to a Gaza emergency room after fainting while she breastfed her newborn. She told Soboh she hadn't eaten in days.

The next day at another medical facility, Soboh found a severely malnourished 1-year-old boy weighing 5 kilograms (11 pounds), less than half what's normal. He hadn't grown any teeth. He was too weak to cry. The mother was also malnourished, "a skeleton, covered in skin."

When the mother asked for food, Soboh started crying uncontrollably.

A feeling of powerlessness has overwhelmed her. Soboh said sometimes she gives a little money or a bit of her own food. But now she, too, is struggling.

"This is the worst feeling, wanting to help but knowing you can't. I wished the earth would crack open and swallow me," she said. "What more cruel scenes does the world need to see?"

After months of trying to raise alarm, humanitarian workers are overflowing with anger, frustration and horror over Israel's nearly three-month blockade. The Associated Press spoke to over a dozen aid workers, some with years of experience in emergencies around the world and Palestinians who have worked through this and other wars.

They say what is happening in Gaza is a catastrophe, among the worst they have ever seen. It's more painful, they say, because it's man-made, caused by Israel cutting off all food, fuel, medicine and other supplies to the territory nearly 11 weeks ago.

The world's top authority on food crises last week warned of famine unless the blockade ends. Almost the entire population of around 2.3 million is acutely malnourished, and one in five Palestinians are on the brink of starvation, it said.

Israel late Sunday said it would allow a "basic" amount of food into Gaza, saying it didn't want a hunger crisis to jeopardize its new military offensive. It was not immediately clear how much would be allowed in, or when, or how.

Israel says it imposed the blockade to force Hamas to release hostages, a decision that rights groups call a "starvation tactic" and a violation of international law.

Aid workers are also wrestling with moves by Israel and the US to impose a new aid system, despite their objections. The system would limit distribution to a few locations and put it under armed private contractors — to prevent theft by Hamas, Israel says. Humanitarian workers say it won't meet Gaza's needs and violates humanitarian principles. The UN denies that significant aid diversion takes place.

The workers say they should be allowed to do their jobs. Some 170,000 metric tons of aid, including food, sits in trucks a few miles away, just inside Israel.

"The humanitarian community is well-experienced and well-versed in terms of treating malnutrition," said Rachel Cummings, emergency coordinator for Save the Children in Gaza. But "we need food into Gaza and to stop this, by design, attack on the children across the whole of Gaza."

Last lifelines are closing

Community kitchens are the last lifeline for most people, but more than 60% have shut down as supplies run out. Those still working can only produce 260,000 meals a day.

At his kitchen in Khan Younis, Nihad Abu Kush and 10 cooks prepare enough meals for about 1,000 people a day. More than 2,000 show up every morning, he said.

There are no lines, just a sea of people terrified of being among the half who will miss out. They push and shove, waving pots for portions from the vats of lentils, beans or peas in tomato sauce.

"I feel so helpless because the numbers grow every day," Abu Kush said. "I look at their faces and I am unable to do anything."

On a recent day, he gave up his own portion after he locked eyes with a child with an empty pot. "I was among the 1,000 who didn't get any," Abu Kush said.

A breaking point

Soboh, a nutritionist with MedGlobal, said her team stretches supplies of malnutrition treatments. Each can of baby formula is divided among several mothers. Therapy food portions are reduced by half. They give supplements only to children up to a year old, no longer up to 2.

But their fixes get overwhelmed in the rising need.

Staff try to dissuade mothers too weak to breastfeed from giving newborns sugar water, which can cause deadly diarrhea and infections, Soboh said.

But it's the mothers' only alternative. Flour sold in the markets is rotten, full of insects, devoid of nutrition and enormously expensive. Still, if they find the cash, parents take risky trips to get it just to fill their children's stomachs, she said.

Aid groups distributing water have reduced daily allowances to 5 liters a day per person, a third of the minimum in emergency conditions. Families must choose between using water to drink, wash hands or to cook, risking infection.

Mahmoud al-Saqqa, Oxfam's food security sector coordinator, said parents tell him their kids are dizzy from lack of food. They search through garbage for scraps.

"We see the hunger in their eyes," he said. His group, like most, distributed its last food stocks weeks ago.

One of Soboh's colleagues, Fady Abed, said desperate adults in his neighborhood ask him for the nutty-butter bars used to treat severely malnourished children to slake their own hunger.

"You feel like you let them down" refusing them, Abed said. He struggles to feed his own family.

"Fear of famine," he said, "is in every home."

Pumping air for 72 hours

Medical workers improvise alternatives as supplies run out and machines break down.

Al-Awda Hospital in northern Gaza lacks fuel and oxygen cylinders, so staff use hand-pumped respirators to keep patients breathing, said hospital director Mohammed Salha.

Staff took turns hand-pumping air for one patient for 72 hours straight. The patient still died.

"People are dying ... because we simply don't have the basics," he said.

At Nasser Hospital in southern Gaza, doctors don't have drills, sealant or titanium plates to treat the many skull fractures from bombardment.

They use expired gelatins to stop bleeding, but that doesn't stop spinal fluid from leaking, which can be deadly, said a foreign doctor volunteering with the aid group Medical Aid for Palestinians.

Sometimes, there's nothing he can do. He has child patients whose cochlear implants are defective, but there's no way to replace them. Without them, "they will never be able to develop normal speech," he said.

The doctor spoke on condition of anonymity in line with regulations from his organization to avoid reprisals from Israeli authorities.

Israel has cut in half the number of foreign doctors allowed into Gaza since March.

New aid system

Israel imposed the blockade and resumed its military campaign in March, breaking a two-month ceasefire with Hamas. COGAT, the Israeli military body in charge of overseeing aid, did not comment to the AP.

Israeli officials have said they track the calories in Gaza and assert that there is enough aid after an influx during the ceasefire.

Israel and the United States are pressing the UN and aid groups to join the planned new distribution system. The UN and most aid groups say they can't join because it enables Israel to use aid as a weapon for its political and military goals.

In particular, it would depopulate much of Gaza by forcing Palestinians to move to planned distribution hubs.

"In the end, this is using food to humiliate, control and direct people," said al-Saqqa of Oxfam. "Every human being has the right to food."