Syria 'Safe Zone': 3 Options for Turkey

 Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the UN Headquarters in New York on September 24, 2019. (AP)
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the UN Headquarters in New York on September 24, 2019. (AP)
TT

Syria 'Safe Zone': 3 Options for Turkey

 Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the UN Headquarters in New York on September 24, 2019. (AP)
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the UN Headquarters in New York on September 24, 2019. (AP)

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has renewed his demand to establish a safe zone, devoid of the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) and Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), 30 kilometers deep into northern Syria.

Erdogan first made his intentions clear in 2013 and then presented a detailed map of his vision before the United Nations in 2019. His plan was rejected by the United States, Europe and Russia. Ankara managed, however, through various exchanges and military incursions to establish pockets of control in the area.

This was achieved through four military operations: Euphrates Shield in Jarablus in northern Aleppo in 2016, Olive Branch in Afrin in Aleppo's countryside in 2018, Peace Spring in Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ain east of the Euphrates River in late 2019 and Spring Shield in Idlib in spring 2020.

The process also demanded a series of agreements: Ankara, Moscow and Tehran signed an agreement over Idlib in Astana in 2017; Ankara signed a number of understandings with Moscow in 2018 and 2020; Ankara signed an agreement with Washington over the Manbij "roadmap" in 2018 and another one on the Peace Spring region in October 2019.

These deals allowed Turkey to establish its zones of influence that take up around 10 percent of Syria, or roughly twice the size of Lebanon. Turkey, along with Russia and Iran, which control 63 percent of Syria with the regime, is one of the main players in the war-torn country. Added to them are the United States and its allies, who back the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which hold 23 percent of northeastern Syria.

Turkey's incursions in Syria have prevented the Kurds from establishing their own state, similar to the Iraqi Kurdistan Region. It partially succeeded in driving out the YPG and PKK from its southern borders and prevented dramatic demographic changes in northern Syria. Ankara, Tehran and Damascus are in agreement over barring the establishment of a Kurdish entity. Syria, Iran and Turkey had in the 1990s also stood against the establishment of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region.

What has changed?
Erdogan believes that the war on Ukraine has granted Turkey a unique and major negotiations position with Russia, the US and Washington.

Washington supports Sweden and Finland's bid to join NATO and in order for that to succeed, it needs the approval of all members, including Turkey.

Moscow opposes the bid and is banking on Turkey's veto to that end.

Through the series of tradeoffs and understandings in Syria, and Ankara and Moscow's bilateral military, economic and political relations, Russian President Vladimir Putin succeeded in using his special ties with Erdogan in making a main breakthrough in NATO's southern front. Turkey's Incirlik base near the Syrian border lies just dozens of kilometers away from Russia's Hmeimim air base in western Syria.

Days ago, as NATO was preparing to hold a summit in Spain next month, Erdogan raised his tone and threatened to wage a new incursion in northern Syria with the aim of establishing a "safe zone" and driving out the YPG.

Turkish intelligence and allied Syrian factions have been preparing for the new battle. Shelling along the frontlines has also intensified in recent days, namely in the Peace Spring region covering Tal Abyad, Ras al-Ain and the area east of the Euphrates, the areas near Manbij in the Aleppo countryside, and in Tal Rifaat.

Each of these three zones has its own risks should Turkey choose to attack:

- Red zone. The US has deployed its forces, patrols and drones in the area east of the Euphrates to stress that it is there to protect its allies - the SDF - and repel the Turkish army. The US informed Ankara, through its UN ambassador, of its rejection of any military attacks.

Russia, meanwhile, has used the Turkish threats of an offensive to justify reinforcing its strategic deployment near American forces east of the Euphrates.

This has forced Turkey to backtrack somewhat with Erdogan clearly stating that the new offensive would not include the area east of the Euphrates, but it will cover the region west of the river, specifically Manbij and Tal Rifaat.

- Yellow - grey zone, covering west of the Euphrates in Manbij, where an old American-Turkish agreement called for the withdrawal of the YPG and PKK. Washington and Ankara also agreed to deploy joint patrols in the area and form a local council.

The US assurances to the YPG included Manbij and Washington believes that any threat to the Kurdish force will undermine the war against ISIS.

Any Turkish attack in this zone will lead to instability and raise demands in the US Congress for Washington to impose sanctions on Ankara that were imposed after the 2019 offensive.

Erdogan certainly wants to avoid more economic pressure, a year before presidential elections. He may, however, increase pressure in Manbij to reach a new settlement against the YPG.

- Green zone that covers Tal Rifaat, also west of the Euphrates. This area is, in theory, held by Russia, Iran and the Damascus regime. A Turkish incursion here may be easier than the other two zones. All Ankara needs is a green light from Moscow, just as it did for the Euphrates Shield, Olive Branch and Spring Shield operations.

At the time, Russia extracted a price from Turkey in Syria. This time around, Turkey's request for control of Tal Rifaat from Russia will be met with Moscow's demands over Ukraine and Sweden and Finland's NATO bids or perhaps that Ankara normalize ties with Damascus and agree to the deployment of Syrian border guards on the Syrian-Turkish border.

The coming days will reveal Turkey's true intentions: Is it seeking better negotiations conditions ahead of the NATO summit or is Erdogan seeking to impose a new reality on the ground before flying to Spain? Moreover, how will this clash play out with the UN Security Council seeking to extend the cross-border aid deliveries through Turkey before the July 10 deadline?



Top Iranian Generals Killed in the Israeli Attack

Iranian Armed Forces Chief of Staff Major General Mohammad Bagheri speaks during the International Conference on the Legal-International Claims of the Holy Defense in the capital Tehran on February 23, 2021. (AFP)
Iranian Armed Forces Chief of Staff Major General Mohammad Bagheri speaks during the International Conference on the Legal-International Claims of the Holy Defense in the capital Tehran on February 23, 2021. (AFP)
TT

Top Iranian Generals Killed in the Israeli Attack

Iranian Armed Forces Chief of Staff Major General Mohammad Bagheri speaks during the International Conference on the Legal-International Claims of the Holy Defense in the capital Tehran on February 23, 2021. (AFP)
Iranian Armed Forces Chief of Staff Major General Mohammad Bagheri speaks during the International Conference on the Legal-International Claims of the Holy Defense in the capital Tehran on February 23, 2021. (AFP)

Israel targeted leading members of Iran's armed forces on Friday during its unprecedented onslaught hitting military and nuclear targets across the country.

Here is what we know about the two top figures killed:

General Mohammad Bagheri was the highest-ranking officer in the Iranian armed forces and was responsible for overseeing the army, the Revolutionary Guards and Corps and the country's ballistic missile program.

In office since 2016, Bagheri worked directly under the authority of supreme leader Ali Khamenei -- Iran's ultimate decision maker and the commander-in-chief of its armed forces.

As second in command, Bagheri held wide-ranging authority over much of Iran's military formations and appeared regularly on television in uniform, including notably at the inauguration of underground military bases.

He also played a key role in developing Iran's ballistic missile program.

The arsenal, originally developed to compensate for Iran's weak air force during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, significantly increased its range and precision over the years.

Israel has long viewed these capabilities as an existential threat from its sworn enemy and has twice been targeted by massive barrages fired by Iran at its territory.

"The Zionist enemy should know that it is nearing the end of its miserable life," Bagheri once declared, while referring to Israel as "a cancerous tumor".

In 2022, Bagheri stated that Iran was "more than self-sufficient" in arms and equipment, boasting that the country would become one of the world's top arms exporters if sanctions were lifted.

The general was placed under US sanctions during President Donald Trump's first term and later sanctioned by the European Union following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.

At that time, Bagheri mocked the EU, suggesting it should use Iran's frozen assets to "buy coal" to heat itself in winter amid Russia's war in Ukraine aided by Iranian weapons.

Born in June 1960, Bagheri succeeded Hassan Firouzabadi, who had served as chief of staff of the armed forces for 26 years -- from 1989 to 2016 -- and had once accused Westerners of using lizards to spy on Iran.

Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) head Hossein Salami delivers a speech during a ceremony marking the first death anniversary of late Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, in Tehran, Iran, 15 May 2025. (EPA)

Hossein Salami

Iran's Revolutionary Guards chief Hossein Salami was a veteran officer close to supreme leader Khamenei and known for his tirades against Israel and its US ally.

"If you make the slightest mistake, we will open the gates of hell for you," the white-bearded general warned Tehran's arch foes during a tour of an underground missile base in January.

Born in 1960 in central Iran, Salami joined the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in 1980 at the start of the war launched by then Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.

He spent most of his career in the Guards, which was set up after the 1979 overthrow of the Western-backed shah to defend the goals of the revolution.

The force is now 125,000-strong grouping, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, although Iran has never released any official figure.

Salami rose through the ranks to become head of the Guards' air force division and was placed on Washington's sanctions blacklist.

He served as the corps' deputy commander for nine years before being promoted to the top job in 2019 as part of a major reshuffle.

Iran's revolutionary leader Khomeini had made support for the Palestinian cause a centerpiece of Tehran's foreign policy and Salami repeatedly alluded to calls for Israel to be wiped from the map.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should "learn to swim in the Mediterranean Sea" in readiness to flee, he said in a 2018 speech.

The IRGC played a central role in Iran's forward foreign policy in the Arab world, which saw Tehran-backed militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah lead Gaza and Lebanon into war with Israel.

The twin conflicts were accompanied by the first-ever direct exchanges of fire between Iran and Israel last year and were to lead to the much bigger wave of Israeli strikes on Iran on Friday, one of which killed Salami.