World Bank Projects Slow Growth, Warns of ‘Stagflation’ Risk

World Bank President David Malpass said that the danger of stagflation is considerable today. (Reuters)
World Bank President David Malpass said that the danger of stagflation is considerable today. (Reuters)
TT
20

World Bank Projects Slow Growth, Warns of ‘Stagflation’ Risk

World Bank President David Malpass said that the danger of stagflation is considerable today. (Reuters)
World Bank President David Malpass said that the danger of stagflation is considerable today. (Reuters)

The World Bank on Tuesday slashed its global growth forecast by nearly a third to 2.9% for 2022, warning that Russia's invasion of Ukraine has compounded the damage from the COVID-19 pandemic, and many countries now faced recession.

The bank forecast a slump in global growth to 2.9% in 2022 from 5.7% in 2021, a drop of 1.2 percentage points from its January forecast, and said growth was likely to hover near that level in 2023 and 2024.

The war in Ukraine had magnified the slowdown in the global economy, which was now entering what could become “a protracted period of feeble growth and elevated inflation,” the Bank said in its Global Economic Prospects report, warning that the outlook could still grow worse.

This raises the risk of stagflation, with potentially harmful consequences for middle- and low-income economies alike.

In a news conference, World Bank President David Malpass said global growth was being hammered by the war, fresh COVID lockdowns in China, supply-chain disruptions and the rising risk of stagflation -- a period of weak growth and high inflation last seen in the 1970s.

“The danger of stagflation is considerable today,” Malpass wrote in the foreword to the report.

“Subdued growth will likely persist throughout the decade because of weak investment in most of the world,” he added.

“With inflation now running at multi-decade highs in many countries and supply expected to grow slowly, there is a risk that inflation will remain higher for longer.”

Between 2021 and 2024, the pace of global growth is projected to slow by 2.7 percentage points, Malpass said, more than twice the deceleration seen between 1976 and 1979.

The report warned that interest rate increases required to control inflation at the end of the 1970s were so steep that they touched off a global recession in 1982, and a string of financial crises in emerging market and developing economies.

It said global inflation should moderate next year but would likely remain above targets in many economies.

Growth in advanced economies was projected to decelerate sharply to 2.6% in 2022 and 2.2% in 2023 after hitting 5.1% in 2021.

Emerging market and developing economies were seen achieving growth of just 3.4% in 2022, down from 6.6% in 2021, and well below the annual average of 4.8% seen in 2011-2019.



US Labor Market Slows Despite Job Adds in May

Commuters cross Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, DC, during the morning rush hour. (Roberto Schmidt/AFP/Getty Images)
Commuters cross Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, DC, during the morning rush hour. (Roberto Schmidt/AFP/Getty Images)
TT
20

US Labor Market Slows Despite Job Adds in May

Commuters cross Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, DC, during the morning rush hour. (Roberto Schmidt/AFP/Getty Images)
Commuters cross Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, DC, during the morning rush hour. (Roberto Schmidt/AFP/Getty Images)

The United States added 139,000 jobs in May, more than expected but pointing to a labor market that continues to slow.

The employment data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics exceeded forecasts for about 120,000 payroll gains but marked a decline from the revised 147,000 jobs added in April. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, remaining near historic lows.

Stocks surged at Friday's open, with all three major indexes gaining about 1%.

In return, US government borrowing costs climbed as investors anticipated the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates higher for longer, making it less attractive to hold US debt.

The BLS report showed job losses in the federal government continued to pile up, with that sector shedding 22,000 roles in May alone.

The federal workforce is down by 59,000 since January, largely due to sweeping cuts by the Trump administration and multibillionaire tech executive Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency project.

Even as the economy continued to add jobs at a relatively steady clip last month, the report showed other signs of a weakening labor market.

The ratio of employed workers to the total population fell to 59.7%, its lowest since the pandemic.

An alternative measure of unemployment that includes “discouraged” workers, or those who have stopped looking for work, returned to a post-pandemic high of 4.5%.

But President Donald Trump cheered the numbers, posting on his Truth Social platform Friday morning: “AMERICA IS HOT! SIX MONTHS AGO IT WAS COLD AS ICE! BORDER IS CLOSED, PRICES ARE DOWN. WAGES ARE UP!”

Trump had urged Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to slash interest rates by a full percentage point.

“Too Late' at the Fed is a disaster!” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social.

In reality, employers added 212,000 jobs in November, unemployment was at 4.1%, the 12-month average of hourly pay gains have softened from nearly 4.2% then to 3.9% in May, and both the labor force participation rate and the employment-to-population ratio were slightly higher.

Only consumer prices have meaningfully cooled, ticking down from an annual inflation rate of 2.7% in November to 2.3% in April, the latest month with available data.

Analysts at Capital Economics called the May jobs report “not as good as it looks.”

Still, they wrote in a note Friday, “it shows that tariffs are having little negative impact” and added that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue holding interest rates steady “while it assesses the effects of policy changes on the economy.”