Sudanese Farmers Warn of Failing Harvests as Hunger Rises

Women display vegetables for sale in a residential area in Khartoum, Sudan, March 22, 2022. Picture taken March 22, 2022. (Reuters)
Women display vegetables for sale in a residential area in Khartoum, Sudan, March 22, 2022. Picture taken March 22, 2022. (Reuters)
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Sudanese Farmers Warn of Failing Harvests as Hunger Rises

Women display vegetables for sale in a residential area in Khartoum, Sudan, March 22, 2022. Picture taken March 22, 2022. (Reuters)
Women display vegetables for sale in a residential area in Khartoum, Sudan, March 22, 2022. Picture taken March 22, 2022. (Reuters)

On the fertile clay plains of Sudan's Gezira Scheme, farmers would have normally started tilling the soil weeks ago before planting out rows of sorghum, or peanuts, sesame and other cash crops.

Instead, in a country stalked by sharply rising hunger, swathes of the 8,800 square km (3,400 square mile) agricultural project lie untouched.

Farmers who spoke to Reuters say the government, which has been cut off from billions of dollars in international financing following a coup in October, failed to buy their wheat under promised terms earlier this year.

That, they say, means they did not have the money to fund the new crop now.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has further complicated the outlook, driving prices for inputs such as fertilizer and fuel to new highs.

That puts current and future seasons in jeopardy, the farmers say, in an unstable country where the humanitarian situation has deteriorated and it is unclear how authorities will afford to finance imports of increasingly pricey food.

The finance ministry did not comment directly on the farmers' statements about wheat purchases, but told Reuters it was making efforts to provide the necessary funding.

The ministry said in a statement on Tuesday it had committed to buying up to 300,000 tons of wheat and 200,000 tons of sorghum, together costing more than $300 million, and was seeking funds from the central bank.

Reuters spoke to more than 20 farmers at the Gezira Scheme, a vast irrigation project just south of the capital Khartoum. All described the situation as desperate, and most said they feared bankruptcy and even prison for not paying back debts.

One, Nazar Abdallah, said he took out loans assuming that the government would buy his wheat at 43,000 Sudanese pounds (about $75.40) per sack, as was agreed last year.

Dozens of those 100 kg sacks of grain, now stored under a leaky roof, should have been sold in March.

If his crop spoils, he fears he will have no way to repay his debt. "If it rains, I'll be sent straight to jail, no question," he said, pointing at the holes in the ceiling.

Similar problems plague Gadaref, the eastern state where much of the country's traditional grain, sorghum, is grown.

"We buy the fertilizer and fuel at high prices and then when we come to sell our harvest we don't find a market. The government is impoverishing us," said a sorghum farmer there, who asked to remain anonymous to avoid involvement in politics.

"The summer season is threatened with collapse. Fifty percent, seventy percent of us might not plant. And that puts the food supply in question," Ahmed Abdelmagid, another Gezira farmer, said.

Roadshows
Farmers' woes predate the coup. They are tied to an economic crisis that began under former leader Omar al-Bashir, subsidy reforms pursued by the transitional government and global cost pressures that started before the war in Ukraine.

Last year, the state-owned Agricultural Bank, which has long supported farmers and bought up their wheat for strategic reserves, failed to provide fertilizer and seeds as prices rose, farmers said.

The Agricultural Bank, as well as Sudan's central bank and agriculture ministry, did not respond to requests for comment.

The cost of fuel for farmers rose more than 6,500% in 2021 from a year earlier, according to a UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) report published in March. The price for fertilizer, normally provided under the wheat purchase agreement, rose 800%, causing farmers to cut back on its use.

The report also blamed erratic rains, pest infestations, conflict and irrigation issues for a drop of more than 35% in production this year of Sudan's three key staples - wheat, sorghum, and millet.

This year, the FAO says Sudan faces a rare sorghum deficit.

Just a year ago, the transitional government was out doing roadshows to market Sudan's huge untapped agricultural potential to investors as the economy began to open up following Bashir's overthrow during mass protests in 2019.

Its work was abruptly halted by the coup, which ended a fractious power-sharing arrangement between civilians and the military. Amid political deadlock and anti-military demonstrations, economic activity has stagnated.

Hunger
The UN World Food Program estimates that the number of people facing crisis or emergency levels of hunger, the stages preceding famine, will double this year in Sudan to 18 million, out of a population of 46 million.

And Sudan's food security worries could get worse.

Even with global wheat prices at record levels, Sudan imported 818,000 tons in Jan-March, three times more than the same period in 2021, central bank figures show.

Though the local wheat harvest makes up a fraction of consumption, the government subsidy for wheat farmers forms a necessary, if unsustainable, backbone for agricultural activity, FAO representative Babagana Ahmadu said.

"Without it, the situation will get out of hand," he added.

Abdallah and other farmers in Gezira would typically grow sorghum and key export crops during the upcoming summer season, using the profits they made from the government's wheat purchases.

But Gezira Scheme governor Omar Marzoug said no financing was available, government or private.

Sudan's military leadership has said it is addressing the issue. Farmers criticized a recent purchasing announcement as having prohibitive conditions.

Deprived of cashflow, they are waiting, selling small amounts at the market rate of around 28,000 pounds ($49.12) per sack to make ends meet. Farm machinery lies idle.

The farmer in Gadaref said he and his peers would likely reduce their planting of key exports like sesame by up to 80% if financing wasn't received this month.

"I expect there will be worse problems in the upcoming harvests without a radical change," University of Gadaref agriculture professor Hussein Sulieman said. "And I don't expect a radical change."



New Mpox Strain Is Changing Fast; African Scientists Are ‘Working Blind’ to Respond 

Dr. Robert Musole, medical director of the Kavumu hospital (R) consults an infant suffering from a severe form of mpox at the Kavumu hospital, 30 km north of Bukavu in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, August 24, 2024. (AFP)
Dr. Robert Musole, medical director of the Kavumu hospital (R) consults an infant suffering from a severe form of mpox at the Kavumu hospital, 30 km north of Bukavu in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, August 24, 2024. (AFP)
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New Mpox Strain Is Changing Fast; African Scientists Are ‘Working Blind’ to Respond 

Dr. Robert Musole, medical director of the Kavumu hospital (R) consults an infant suffering from a severe form of mpox at the Kavumu hospital, 30 km north of Bukavu in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, August 24, 2024. (AFP)
Dr. Robert Musole, medical director of the Kavumu hospital (R) consults an infant suffering from a severe form of mpox at the Kavumu hospital, 30 km north of Bukavu in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, August 24, 2024. (AFP)

Scientists studying the new mpox strain that has spread out of Democratic Republic of Congo say the virus is changing faster than expected, and often in areas where experts lack the funding and equipment to properly track it.

That means there are numerous unknowns about the virus itself, its severity and how it is transmitting, complicating the response, half a dozen scientists in Africa, Europe and the United States told Reuters.

Mpox, formerly known as monkeypox, has been a public health problem in parts of Africa since 1970, but received little global attention until it surged internationally in 2022, prompting the World Health Organization to declare a global health emergency. That declaration ended 10 months later.

A new strain of the virus, known as clade Ib, has the world's attention again after the WHO declared a new health emergency.

The strain is a mutated version of clade I, a form of mpox spread by contact with infected animals that has been endemic in Congo for decades. Mpox typically causes flu-like symptoms and pus-filled lesions and can kill.

Congo has had more than 18,000 suspected clade I and clade Ib mpox cases and 615 deaths this year, according to the WHO. There have also been 222 confirmed clade Ib cases in four African countries in the last month, plus a case each in Sweden and Thailand in people with a travel history in Africa.

"I worry that in Africa, we are working blindly," said Dr. Dimie Ogoina, an infectious diseases expert at Niger Delta University Hospital in Nigeria who chairs the WHO's mpox emergency committee. He first raised the alarm about potential sexual transmission of mpox in 2017, now an accepted route of spread for the virus.

"We don’t understand our outbreak very well, and if we don't understand our outbreak very well, we will have difficulty addressing the problem in terms of transmission dynamics, the severity of the disease, risk factors of the disease," Ogoina said. "And I worry about the fact that the virus seems to be mutating and producing new strains."

He said it took clade IIb in Nigeria five years or more to evolve enough for sustained spread among humans, sparking the 2022 global outbreak. Clade Ib has done the same thing in less than a year.

MUTATING 'MORE RAPIDLY'

Mpox is an orthopoxvirus, from the family that causes smallpox. Population-wide protection from a global smallpox vaccine campaign 50 years ago has waned, as the vaccinating stopped when the disease was eradicated.

Genetic sequencing of clade Ib infections, which the WHO estimates emerged mid-September 2023, show they carry a mutation known as APOBEC3, a signature of adaptation in humans.

The virus that causes mpox has typically been fairly stable and slow to mutate, but APOBEC-driven mutations can accelerate viral evolution, said Dr. Miguel Paredes, who is studying the evolution of mpox and other viruses at Fred Hutchison Cancer Center in Seattle.

"All the human-to-human cases of mpox have this APOBEC signature of mutations, which means that it's mutating a little bit more rapidly than we would expect," he said.

Paredes and other scientists said a response was complicated by several mpox outbreaks happening at once.

In the past, mpox was predominantly acquired through human contact with infected animals. That is still driving a rise in Congo in clade I cases – also known as clade Ia - likely due in part to deforestation and increased consumption of bushmeat, scientists said.

The mutated versions, clade Ib and IIb, can now essentially be considered a sexually transmitted disease, said Dr. Salim Abdool Karim, a South African epidemiologist and chair of the Africa CDC’s mpox advisory committee. Most of the mutated clade Ib cases are among adults, driven at first by an epidemic among female sex workers in South Kivu, Congo.

The virus also can spread through close contact with an infected person, which is likely how clusters of children have been infected with clade Ib, particularly in Burundi and in eastern Congo’s displacement camps, where crowded living conditions may be contributing.

Children, pregnant women and people with weakened immune systems or other illnesses may be at greater risk of serious mpox disease and death, say the WHO and mpox scientists.

Clade I has typically caused more severe disease, with fatality rates of 4%-11%, compared to around 1% for clade II. Ogoina said data from Congo suggests few have died of the new Ib version, but he feared some data is being mixed up.

More research is urgently needed, but three teams tracking mpox outbreaks in Africa say they cannot even access chemicals needed for diagnostic tests. Clade Ib can also be missed by some diagnostic tests.

Planning a response, including vaccination strategies, without this is difficult, the scientists said.

Karim said around half of cases in eastern Congo, where Ib is particularly prevalent, are only being diagnosed by doctors, with no laboratory confirmation.

Getting samples to labs is difficult because the healthcare system is already under pressure, he said. And around 750,000 people have been displaced amid fighting between the M23 rebel group and the government.

Many African laboratories cannot get the supplies they need, said Dr. Emmanuel Nakoune, an mpox expert at the Institut Pasteur in Bangui, Central African Republic, which also has clade Ia cases.

"This is not a luxury," he said, but necessary to track deadly outbreaks.