IMF: Overall Saudi GDP Projected to Grow 7.6%

IMF confirms that Saudi Arabia mitigated the economic risks resulting from the Russian-Ukrainian war (Asharq Al-Awsat)
IMF confirms that Saudi Arabia mitigated the economic risks resulting from the Russian-Ukrainian war (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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IMF: Overall Saudi GDP Projected to Grow 7.6%

IMF confirms that Saudi Arabia mitigated the economic risks resulting from the Russian-Ukrainian war (Asharq Al-Awsat)
IMF confirms that Saudi Arabia mitigated the economic risks resulting from the Russian-Ukrainian war (Asharq Al-Awsat)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has highlighted solid indicators for the Saudi economy, expecting a 7.6 percent overall GDP growth in 2022.

Non-oil growth will increase to 4.2 percent in 2022, with the current account surplus will increase to 17.4 percent of GDP in 2022, said the Fund experts.

An IMF mission conducted discussions for the 2022 Article IV Consultation from May 23-June 6 and issued a concluding statement describing their preliminary findings.

The experts emphasized the strength of the Saudi economy and its financial position, explaining that the country's economic prospects have a positive outlook in the short and medium term.

"The near and medium-term outlook for Saudi Arabia is positive as growth is picking up, inflation will remain contained, and the external position will strengthen further."

The Fund indicated that the Kingdom managed the COVID-19 pandemic well and is well-positioned to weather the risks posed by the war in Ukraine and the monetary policy tightening cycle in advanced economies.

"Economic activity is picking up strongly, supported by a higher oil price and the reforms unleashed under Vision 2030," read the statement.

Saudi authorities' commitment to fiscal discipline should help further strengthen fiscal and external sustainability and avoid procyclicality while implementing the ambitious structural reform agenda will help ensure a durable, inclusive, and green recovery.

"Saudi Arabia is recovering strongly following a deep pandemic-induced recession."

The report also explained that the overall growth was robust at 3.2 percent in 2021, driven by recovering non-oil manufacturing, retail, e-commerce, and the trade sector.

The Fund pointed out that with increased labor force participation of nationals offsetting expatriates' departures, the unemployment rate has fallen further to 11 percent, a 1.6 percent drop from 2020, mainly owing to higher employment for Saudi nationals, particularly women, in the private sector.

The statement said that financial stability risks are well contained, and the banking system is profitable, liquid, and well-capitalized.

The staff's preliminary analysis found that the impact on credit growth and non-oil GDP is negligible and positive for the banking sector profitability when oil prices and liquidity are high.

They touched on the Kingdom's efforts concerning climate policies, stressing that the government is working to intensify investments in blue and green hydrogen production and is undertaking research and development focusing on the circular carbon economy.

They confirmed the strength of the Kingdom's economy and the power of its financial position, reflected in the great effort made by the government to promote its economic reforms in light of Vision 2030.

Saudi Arabia works on various projects in different sectors, including infrastructure, logistics, entertainment, tourism, and mining.

"The mission welcomes the Kingdom's commitment to fiscal sustainability and efforts to avoid procyclicality by setting a spending ceiling that would be delinked from oil price fluctuations."



Gold Set for Brightest Year Since 2010 on Rate Cuts, Safe-haven Demand

Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a workroom at the Novosibirsk precious metals refining and manufacturing plant in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, Russia, September 15, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/FILE PHOTO
Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a workroom at the Novosibirsk precious metals refining and manufacturing plant in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, Russia, September 15, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/FILE PHOTO
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Gold Set for Brightest Year Since 2010 on Rate Cuts, Safe-haven Demand

Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a workroom at the Novosibirsk precious metals refining and manufacturing plant in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, Russia, September 15, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/FILE PHOTO
Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a workroom at the Novosibirsk precious metals refining and manufacturing plant in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, Russia, September 15, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/FILE PHOTO

Gold prices were set to end a record-breaking year on a positive note on Tuesday as robust central bank buying, geopolitical uncertainties and monetary policy easing fuelled the safe-haven metal's strongest annual performance since 2010.

Spot gold rose 0.1% to $2,607.72 per ounce as of 1315 GMT, while US gold futures gained 0.1% to $2,620.40.

As one of the best-performing assets of 2024, bullion has gained more than 26% year-to-date, the biggest annual jump since 2010, and last scaled a record high of $2,790.15 on Oct. 31 after a series of record-breaking rallies throughout the year.

"Rising geopolitical risks, demand from central banks, easing of monetary policy by central banks globally, and the resumption of inflows into gold-linked Exchange-Traded Commodities (ETC) were the primary drivers of gold's rally in 2024," said Aneeka Gupta, director of macroeconomic research at WisdomTree, Reuters reported.

The metal is likely to remain supported in 2025 despite some headwinds from a stronger US dollar and a slower pace of easing by the Federal Reserve, Gupta added.

The US Fed delivered a third consecutive interest rate cut this month but flagged fewer rate cuts for 2025.

Donald Trump's incoming administration was also poised to significantly impact global economic policies, encompassing tariffs, deregulation, and tax amendments.

"Bullion bulls may enjoy another stellar year ahead if global geopolitical tensions are ramped up under Trump 2.0, potentially pushing investors towards this time-tested safe haven," said Exinity Group Chief Market Analyst Han Tan.

Bullion is often regarded as a hedge against geopolitical and economic risks and tends to perform well in low-interest-rate environments.

"We expect gold to rally to $3,000/t oz on structurally higher central bank demand and a cyclical and gradual boost to ETF holdings from Fed rate cuts," said Daan Struyven, commodities strategist at Goldman Sachs.

Spot silver fell 0.3% to $28.85 per ounce, palladium was steady at $901.03 and platinum was little changed at $904.23.

Silver is headed for its best year since 2020, having added nearly 22% so far. Platinum and palladium are set for annual losses and have dipped over 8% and 17%, respectively.