IMF: Overall Saudi GDP Projected to Grow 7.6%

IMF confirms that Saudi Arabia mitigated the economic risks resulting from the Russian-Ukrainian war (Asharq Al-Awsat)
IMF confirms that Saudi Arabia mitigated the economic risks resulting from the Russian-Ukrainian war (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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IMF: Overall Saudi GDP Projected to Grow 7.6%

IMF confirms that Saudi Arabia mitigated the economic risks resulting from the Russian-Ukrainian war (Asharq Al-Awsat)
IMF confirms that Saudi Arabia mitigated the economic risks resulting from the Russian-Ukrainian war (Asharq Al-Awsat)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has highlighted solid indicators for the Saudi economy, expecting a 7.6 percent overall GDP growth in 2022.

Non-oil growth will increase to 4.2 percent in 2022, with the current account surplus will increase to 17.4 percent of GDP in 2022, said the Fund experts.

An IMF mission conducted discussions for the 2022 Article IV Consultation from May 23-June 6 and issued a concluding statement describing their preliminary findings.

The experts emphasized the strength of the Saudi economy and its financial position, explaining that the country's economic prospects have a positive outlook in the short and medium term.

"The near and medium-term outlook for Saudi Arabia is positive as growth is picking up, inflation will remain contained, and the external position will strengthen further."

The Fund indicated that the Kingdom managed the COVID-19 pandemic well and is well-positioned to weather the risks posed by the war in Ukraine and the monetary policy tightening cycle in advanced economies.

"Economic activity is picking up strongly, supported by a higher oil price and the reforms unleashed under Vision 2030," read the statement.

Saudi authorities' commitment to fiscal discipline should help further strengthen fiscal and external sustainability and avoid procyclicality while implementing the ambitious structural reform agenda will help ensure a durable, inclusive, and green recovery.

"Saudi Arabia is recovering strongly following a deep pandemic-induced recession."

The report also explained that the overall growth was robust at 3.2 percent in 2021, driven by recovering non-oil manufacturing, retail, e-commerce, and the trade sector.

The Fund pointed out that with increased labor force participation of nationals offsetting expatriates' departures, the unemployment rate has fallen further to 11 percent, a 1.6 percent drop from 2020, mainly owing to higher employment for Saudi nationals, particularly women, in the private sector.

The statement said that financial stability risks are well contained, and the banking system is profitable, liquid, and well-capitalized.

The staff's preliminary analysis found that the impact on credit growth and non-oil GDP is negligible and positive for the banking sector profitability when oil prices and liquidity are high.

They touched on the Kingdom's efforts concerning climate policies, stressing that the government is working to intensify investments in blue and green hydrogen production and is undertaking research and development focusing on the circular carbon economy.

They confirmed the strength of the Kingdom's economy and the power of its financial position, reflected in the great effort made by the government to promote its economic reforms in light of Vision 2030.

Saudi Arabia works on various projects in different sectors, including infrastructure, logistics, entertainment, tourism, and mining.

"The mission welcomes the Kingdom's commitment to fiscal sustainability and efforts to avoid procyclicality by setting a spending ceiling that would be delinked from oil price fluctuations."



US Tariffs Have Limited Impact on Saudi Real Estate Market

A real estate project in Saudi Arabia. (SPA)
A real estate project in Saudi Arabia. (SPA)
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US Tariffs Have Limited Impact on Saudi Real Estate Market

A real estate project in Saudi Arabia. (SPA)
A real estate project in Saudi Arabia. (SPA)

More than two weeks after US President Donald Trump imposed a 10% tariff on imports from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries—part of a broader global tariff initiative—questions have emerged regarding its potential impact on Saudi Arabia’s real estate sector.

As a cornerstone of the Kingdom’s economic diversification under Vision 2030, the real estate market remains a vital contributor to sustainable growth.

Real estate and economic experts predict the new tariffs will have a “moderate” and “limited” effect on Saudi Arabia’s property market. Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, they estimated a potential rise of 2–5% in the cost of imported construction materials used in infrastructure and development projects.

The Saudi real estate sector recorded transactions worth approximately SAR 2.5 trillion (around $666 billion) in 2024, buoyed by Vision 2030 initiatives and government incentives—reinforcing investor confidence in the sector as a stable and attractive investment hub, particularly amid global financial volatility.

Mohammed Hamdi Omar, CEO of G.World, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the new tariffs could increase the cost of importing steel, concrete, and aluminum by 3.4% to 7%, contributing to an overall rise in construction costs of up to 5% annually. This is driven by increasing demand across numerous development projects currently underway or planned across the Kingdom.

Omar noted that Saudi Arabia had previously raised tariffs on many construction materials in 2020, with duties on items like steel, aluminum, and machinery increasing from 5–12% to as much as 15%.

He added that higher input costs could add $10–$20 per ton to steel prices, which accounts for around 20% of building material inputs, while concrete prices may rise 5–10% due to energy and logistics cost hikes.

These rising costs, Omar warned, could force some developers to delay or cancel low-margin projects, potentially exacerbating the existing housing shortage in the Kingdom.

Despite global economic fluctuations, Saudi Arabia’s non-oil GDP growth and ongoing reforms continue to strengthen investor sentiment. Government incentives, such as VAT exemptions for first-time homebuyers, also contribute to the sector’s resilience.

Real estate appraiser and expert Eng. Ahmed Al-Faqih added that the Saudi market relies more on Chinese imports for construction materials, which should shield many development projects from the brunt of US tariffs.

He emphasized that, like gold, real estate remains a safe haven for capital, especially as global financial markets face disruption amid tariff wars.

Luxury real estate is expected to bear the brunt of price increases, though it continues to expand in line with Vision 2030 and growing interest from tourists and foreign investors.