Russia Fails to Pay Debt but Denies Default

(FILES) A Russian ruble coin is pictured in front of the Kremlin in central Moscow, on April 28, 2022. (Photo by Alexander NEMENOV / AFP)
(FILES) A Russian ruble coin is pictured in front of the Kremlin in central Moscow, on April 28, 2022. (Photo by Alexander NEMENOV / AFP)
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Russia Fails to Pay Debt but Denies Default

(FILES) A Russian ruble coin is pictured in front of the Kremlin in central Moscow, on April 28, 2022. (Photo by Alexander NEMENOV / AFP)
(FILES) A Russian ruble coin is pictured in front of the Kremlin in central Moscow, on April 28, 2022. (Photo by Alexander NEMENOV / AFP)

Russia said Monday that two of its debt payments were blocked from reaching creditors, pushing the country closer to its first foreign default in a century due to sanctions over the Ukraine offensive.

The announcement came on the 124th day of Russia's military intervention in Ukraine, with Western sanctions so far failing to force the Kremlin to change its course, AFP said.

The Western economic penalties have largely severed the country from the international financial system, making it difficult for Moscow to service its debt.

The Russian authorities insist they have the funds to honor the country's debt, calling the predicament a "farce" and accusing the West of seeking to drive Moscow into a default artificially.

"There are no grounds to call this situation a default," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters after a key payment deadline expired Sunday.

"These claims about default, they are absolutely wrong," he said, adding that Russia settled the debt in May.

Russia lost the last avenue to service its foreign-currency loans after the United States removed an exemption last month that allowed US investors to receive Moscow's payments.

- 'Vicious circle of decline' -
A 30-day grace period for the payment of $100 million in interest payments expired on Sunday night, most of which had to be paid in foreign currency.

Russia had attempted to make the payments, but the finance ministry said Monday that the money had not been transferred to creditors.

International settlement and clearing systems "received funds in full in advance" but the payments were not transferred to the final recipients due to "the actions of third parties," the ministry said in a statement.

"The actions of foreign financial intermediaries are beyond the Russian finance ministry's control," the statement said.

While some experts dismiss the event as a technical default, others say it will have far-reaching consequences.

"This default is important as it will impact on Russia's ratings, market access and financing costs for years to come," said Timothy Ash, an emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management.

"And that means lower investment, lower growth, lower living standards, capital and human flight (brain drain), and a vicious circle of decline for the Russian economy."

- 'Locked Russia out' -
But Liam Peach, emerging Europe economist at Capital Economics, a research group, said a default was a "a largely symbolic event that is unlikely to have an additional macroeconomic impact".

"Sanctions have already done the damage and locked Russia out of global capital markets," Peach said in a note.

The sanctions included freezing the Russian government's stockpile of $300 billion in foreign currency reserves held abroad, making it more complicated for Moscow to settle its foreign debts.

After the United States closed the payment loophole last month, Russia said it would pay in rubles that could be converted into foreign currency, using a Russian financial institution as a paying agent, even though the bonds do not allow payments in the local currency.

The country last defaulted on its foreign debt in 1918, when Bolshevik revolution leader Vladimir Lenin refused to recognize the massive debts of the deposed tsar's regime.

Russia defaulted on domestic debt in 1998 when, due to a drop in commodity prices, it faced a financial squeeze that prevented it from propping up the ruble and paying off debts that accumulated during the first war in Chechnya.

The International Monetary Fund's number two official, Gita Gopinath, said in March that a Russian default would have "limited" impact on the global financial system.



Western Officials Warn Iran Could 'Risk War'

An Iranian painter repaints one of the famous anti-US murals in Tehran, Iran, 29 March 2025. EPA/ABEDIN TAHERKENAREH
An Iranian painter repaints one of the famous anti-US murals in Tehran, Iran, 29 March 2025. EPA/ABEDIN TAHERKENAREH
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Western Officials Warn Iran Could 'Risk War'

An Iranian painter repaints one of the famous anti-US murals in Tehran, Iran, 29 March 2025. EPA/ABEDIN TAHERKENAREH
An Iranian painter repaints one of the famous anti-US murals in Tehran, Iran, 29 March 2025. EPA/ABEDIN TAHERKENAREH

Western officials have said Iran will receive a severe blow if it continues to reject US President Donald Trump’s calls for talks over its nuclear program.

The warning came while Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) threatened to “close the Strait of Hormuz” and invited countries in the region to participate in military drills.

“I would advise Iran not to gamble on war. Negotiation, as Trump has put on the table, is a much wiser option,” former US Ambassador to Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad, wrote on X.

He commented on the video of a large underground missile base that Tehran recently released, saying the “intention clearly is to convince Trump that a war with Iran would be risky because it has the ability to survive an initial attack and still to hit targets near and far.”

Khalilzad added: “But can Iran's command and control survive an attack and then go on to make decisions about targets to hit in retaliation, successfully execute those decisions, and inflict largescale damage? This is very much in question.”

Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, a research institute based in London, said the letter-writing between Tehran and Washington showed that both sides were “sizing each other up and finding different channels, some public and many private, to define what they can achieve.”

“This is an opportunity for both sides,” she added, “but it comes with a thousand risks and challenges,” according to The New York Times.

“Iran is at a crossroad, between having an off ramp or being militarily hit,” said Vakil. “It’s a year of really consequential decisions, and how they play their hand could give them a lifeline or lead to further strikes and weakening of the government.”

Trump threatened Iran on Friday with “very bad” repercussions if it continues to reject talks with the US over its nuclear program.

“I don’t say this through strength or weakness, but my big preference is we work it out with Iran. But if we don't work it out, bad bad things are going to happen to Iran,” Trump told reporters at the White House during a swearing-in ceremony.

The Iranian state news agency IRNA reported on Thursday, citing the Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, that Iran has sent a response through Oman to Trump's letter that had urged it to reach a new nuclear deal.

Tehran reiterated its stance on not negotiating directly while under pressure, but is open to indirect talks, Araqchi was reported as saying.

No details have been released of the Iranian response but Iranian officials confirmed that they sent a “balanced” message, refusing threats to strike their country.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on Friday: “If the United States carries out its military threat against Iran due to the failure to reach a new nuclear agreement, its bases in the region will not be safe.”

He added: “Any attack on Iran will mean the explosion of the entire region,” according to Tasnim, a news agency affiliated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

For his part, IRGC Navy Commander Alireza Tanksiri warned on Saturday “foreign powers” of harming Iran's interests.

“If foreigners attempt to attack us, pressure us, or endanger our interests, we will stand against them with full force,” he said, according to Tasnim.

He emphasized that “Iran does not seek war but will respond firmly to any aggression.”

Regarding the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, he said: “The decision rests with the top leadership, but the responsibility for carrying it out lies with me.”

Tanksiri added that if Iran’s rights are denied, “the decision to close the strait will be made, and we will carry it out based on higher directives.”

He also revealed that “Iran has invited Arab countries to participate in military exercises,” noting the presence of representatives from “the UAE, Qatar, Iraq, and Kuwait.”