Oil Minister Says Iraq to Act to Annul Kurdish Oil Deals

Ihsan Abdul-Jabbar Ismail, Iraq Oil minister speaks during an interview with The Associated Press in Baghdad, Iraq, Friday, June 11, 2021.(AP)
Ihsan Abdul-Jabbar Ismail, Iraq Oil minister speaks during an interview with The Associated Press in Baghdad, Iraq, Friday, June 11, 2021.(AP)
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Oil Minister Says Iraq to Act to Annul Kurdish Oil Deals

Ihsan Abdul-Jabbar Ismail, Iraq Oil minister speaks during an interview with The Associated Press in Baghdad, Iraq, Friday, June 11, 2021.(AP)
Ihsan Abdul-Jabbar Ismail, Iraq Oil minister speaks during an interview with The Associated Press in Baghdad, Iraq, Friday, June 11, 2021.(AP)

Iraq’s oil minister said on Thursday the government will take steps to enforce a recent court decision to annul oil contracts the semiautonomous northern Iraqi Kurdish region made with international companies.

The minister, Ihsan Abdul-Jabbar Ismail, told The Associated Press the deals, which circumvent the government in Baghdad, are illegal and amount to oil smuggling.

His remarks were the strongest yet by a senior government official since Iraq’s Supreme Federal Court issued a landmark ruling in February against the northern region’s independent oil sector. Ismail said in total 17 oil companies will be targeted for their dealings with the Iraqi Kurdish region.

Ismail said the international companies that have signed these deals would first receive a cautionary note.

"We will give them a soft message: ‘You are working in the smuggling of oil.' If they are a respectful company they will listen to us," Ismail told the AP in the exclusive interview.

Kurdish officials, including the ruling Kurdistan Democratic Party in Erbil, have dismissed the court ruling as politicized and claim the supreme court itself is unconstitutional.

The ruling came against the backdrop of political upheaval in Baghdad, where Iran-backed groups are pressuring Kurdish parties to join their efforts and proceed with the forming of a government after influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, the winner of the parliamentary elections last year, stepped down from the political process because he could not corral enough lawmakers in the 329-seat house. The Kurdistan Democratic Party was allied with Sadr.

The Iraqi Kurdish region has also faced a rising number of attacks targeting its energy infrastructure. Rocket and mortar fire repeatedly struck a gas field while others targeted a pumping station and refineries last month.

For years, Iraqi Kurdish authorities exploited a constitutional loophole, and managed to exports crude and maintain a modicum of financial independence from the federal government in Baghdad. They have kept details of their operations secret, including their production rates. Iraq Oil Report, an oil industry publication, estimates this to be 440,000 barrels per day.

Now, Baghdad officials are looking to close that door, Ismail said.

The February court ruling effectively rejected the Iraqi Kurdish oil law as a legal basis that the region had used to carry on with independent exports and contracts. Many questioned the timing of that ruling, given that it had been delayed for years. At the time, the Kurdistan Democratic Party and Sadr had tried to form a government without Iran-backed parties.

Ismail agreed the ruling came during a politically sensitive time but denied that it was a politicized decision. After the ruling, the Oil Ministry launched lawsuits against seven international companies, including Norway's DNO, Canada's Western Zagros and the UK-listed Gulf Keystone.

This week, Baghdad’s Commercial Court issued rulings invalidating four of the seven contracts, the oil minister said, with the other three to be decided on by the court at a July 17 session.

Ismail said the overall goal is to invalidate a total of 17 contracts. Some of the contracts are with companies from the United Arab Emirates, others are with Chinese and some with Russian companies, he said.

Caretaker Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi has so far maintained distance from the recent developments, issuing conciliatory statements over the fraught relations between Baghdad and the Kurdish authorities.

But Ismail said the ministry has a plan to also act on the commercial court ruling and would give foreign companies the option to cancel their contracts, request that Iraq's federal government grant them a waiver - or transfer them from Kurdistan’s Ministry of Natural Resources to the federal government's Oil Ministry in Baghdad, he said.

He dismissed claims that it would be technically impossible to transfer contracts from one authority to another, saying it's a matter of "just paperwork.” The Kurdish region uses a production sharing contract model that is incompatible with the federal government's preference for technical service contracts.

If the companies do not comply, Ismail said the government would resort to "the law and banks” to enforce decisions.

"We also have the Oil Police, but we haven’t asked to use them,” he said.

Key oil service companies, including Baker Hughes, Haliburton and Schlumberger pledged to obey the ministry's blacklist policy and have said they will not seek new tenders with the Iraqi Kurdish authorities. For years, international companies have been operating in the Kurdish region with assurances from Kurdish officials that they would not face legal risks.

Oil companies contracted with the Kurdish region operate in territory de facto outside the federal government’s control. Sending federal police to physically shut down the operations in the Iraqi Kurdish region would amount to an unprecedented escalation.



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”